Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 11 Jul 2025 15:01:19
Jimmy
Added 5 months ago

0245 GMT - CSL bull Morgans says the market is materially undervaluing the Australian biopharma company. Morgans figures that CSL shares are trading at an 18.2x enterprise multiple, well below its 10-year average of 24.7x. It adds the market appears to be valuing CSL at a 10% discount to its main Behring business, meaning investors are effectively assessing zero or negative value to CSL's flu-vaccine unit Seqirus and specialty business Vifor. Morgans points out that investor sentiment has been negatively impacted by the threat of tariffs and drug-pricing reform in the U.S. Although Morgans trims its target price and earnings estimates, it still expects CSL to rise to A$303.70/share, compared with recent trading of around A$240/share. ([email protected])

0147 GMT - Current gas-price trends are tilting risks for Macquarie's commodities revenues to the upside, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They forecast a 5% rise in the Australian financial giant's fiscal 2026 commodities revenues, but see potential for more. Price volatility is seen as supportive and Macquarie's in-house U.S. gas-price dispersion index is up 60% on-year in the June quarter, compared with 35% in the March quarter. The analysts tell clients in a note that they expect a U.S. storage deficit to soon re-emerge and grow into the new calendar year. MS has an equal-weight rating and A$216.00 target price on the stock, which is down 1.2% at A$221.36. ([email protected])

0140 GMT - Ord Minnett shrugs off Aeris Resources' copper production miss in FY 2025. Aeris dug up 24,900 tons of copper in the 12 months through June, having targeted an output of 27,000-32,000 tons. Analyst Paul Kaner says this wasn't much of a surprise given how the company had been tracking over the previous months. "A slow ramp-up of the Murrawombie pit appears to have impacted copper production at Tritton with 77,000 tons stockpiles on surface," Ord Minnett says. Still, the bank was pleased with Aeris's annual gold production of 55,200 oz. That was ahead of its forecast of 53,000 oz. Aeris is up 2.6% at 19.5 Australian cents/share. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0123 GMT - Uranium developer Deep Yellow's bull at Macquarie is encouraged by recent trials at the Mulga Rock project in Australia. Macquarie says results from the resin mini-pilot should boost the economics of the project. It expects the outcome of a revised definitive feasibility study in 3Q 2026. Macquarie raises its price target for Deep Yellow by 21% to A$2.05/share. "Mulga Rock is key to Deep Yellow achieving its 7+ million lb/year scale ambition, and the value enhancement from a lower cost operation (e.g., critical mineral credits) could be material," says Macquarie. Deep Yellow's share price is up 2.5% at A$1.655 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0117 GMT - The direction of Perpetual's shares looks largely dependent on the outcome of the investment manager's attempt to sell its wealth-management business, according to Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway. He observes that the recent rally in equity markets is improving Perpetual's revenue prospects and giving it a cushion against the consequences of its relatively high balance-sheet gearing. He acknowledges an Australian newspaper report that it is progressing with a sale process for its wealth-management business. Proceeds from a sale are key to reducing gearing and reducing downside risks to its share price, he writes in a note. Citi raises its target price by 15% to A$21.00 and keeps a neutral rating. Shares are down 0.1% at A$20.92. ([email protected])

0115 GMT - Lynas Rare Earths gets a new bull in Jefferies after a rival miner secured a bumper deal with the U.S. government. Jefferies upgrades Lynas to buy from underperform and raises its price target by 56% to A$10.00/share. It points to MP Materials securing a 10-year floor price of US$110/kg for neodymium and praseodymium, two rare earths elements, with the U.S. Defense Department. "This signals a strong U.S. push for Rare Earth Magnet Independence, lifting upside risk across the Rare Earth pricing complex," analyst Mitch Ryan says. "Lynas appears to be the next logical beneficiary of government market support." Lynas is up 15% at A$9.56 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0055 GMT - Challenger's bull at Citi sees potential for a A$1 billion capital release if proposed regulatory changes come into force. Analyst Nigel Pittaway acknowledges that the Australian prudential regulator's proposals are complex, but is clear that the investment manager will be able to release substantial capital. Pittaway anticipates an initial A$200 million release from changes to the illiquidity premium, the reference benchmark and asset side changes. This will probably be dwarfed by releases including from the potential liquidation of alternative assets, he says. A$800 million looks likely, he writes in a note. Citi raises its target price 22% to A$9.20 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is down 0.4% at A$8.08. ([email protected])

0041 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Citi wonders whether the logistics-software developer could generate some unexpected cash by divesting parts of its latest acquisition. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients that e2open, which WiseTech recently agreed to acquire for US$2.1 billion, has received a US$200 million-US$250 million offer for its logistics-as-a-service business. Ahmed sees this as non-core to WiseTech and had previously assumed that it would be shut down. The potential for it to be sold is interesting. Citi has a buy rating and A$127.40 target price on WiseTech shares, which are up 0.1% at A$112.39. ([email protected])

0030 GMT - Citi's Nigel Pittaway remains relatively optimistic on Computershare's fiscal 2026 EPS prospects despite downside risks. His forecast is about 5% higher than analysts' average, which he attributes to cost savings, improved margin-income yield on hedged balances, and the expectation of improved momentum in the Australia-listed company's corporate trust business. There's also the potential for corporate actions to pick up in the fiscal second half, he adds in a note. However, he acknowledges the potential for factors, including corporate trusts' recent subdued performance, to change the picture. Citi has a neutral rating and A$40.90 target price on the stock, which is down 0.2% at A$40.54. ([email protected])

0011 GMT - Flight Centre bull Macquarie says travel market volatility over the last few months is likely to weigh on results for the recently concluded FY 2025. In a note to clients, Macquarie analysts say they expect Flight Centre's underlying profit before tax to be A$302.5 million for the fiscal year, below market consensus and at the low end of the company's A$300 million-A$335 million guidance range. War in the Middle East and tariff uncertainty have weighed on sentiment recently. But the Macquarie analysts say the outlook is improving, noting that U.S. travel volumes appear to be holding up better than feared and that U.S. corporate travel activity has been robust. "FY26 should see less disruption," Macquarie says. ([email protected])

2248 GMT - AGL Energy's trading revenue in 2H likely took a hit from weaker-than-expected utilization of its coal-fired power plants, Jefferies says. It notes that utilization of the Bayswater plant fell by 14.1 percentage points, to 71.4%, in June. Separately, Loy Yang A saw a decline of 9.6 percentage points, to 87.2%. This contributed to average utilization of both plants falling in 4Q, analyst Anthony Moulder says. "For 2H, we estimate trading revenues to be A$218 million lower across Bayswater and Loy Yang A, partially offset by a A$48 million uplift from stronger performance in South Australian gas peakers," Jefferies says. AGL's share price ended Thursday at A$9.81. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0509 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board may face mounting pressure to publish how its nine members vote at each meeting, removing the current protections afforded by anonymity. Six members voted against lowering interest rates this week despite expectations it was a done deal, prompting calls for their names to be disclosed. The furor around the unpopular on-hold decision, described by some as "uncharitable," will escalate sharply if rates aren't cut in August. The Australian public and media are unusually fixated on interest rates, and questions about who is preventing further reductions could gain traction. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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