Forum Topics "Superinvestors"
Solvetheriddle
Added 7 months ago

SUPERINVESTORS

One for the international investors. I found this site, Dataroma, that lists 81 “superinvestors” portfolios, many of which you would recognise. Every quarter, there are regulatory disclosures that make these guys list their portfolios, and this website records them. Two-month delay, I believe.

Interestingly, sometimes regulatory disclosures are useful; certainly, these guys would not disclose if they didn’t have to!

What you do with this info is up to you. I'm looking for ideas from investors who are reasonably LT holders. No traders, no info there. Movements in the portfolio going forward are of most interest; many of the existing holdings, I suspect, are long-term, so less info there. To see someone adding to a stock I'm closely looking at may be enough to put me over the buy edge or add conviction to an existing holding.

I compiled a list of 12 investors I know a bit about, including Ackman, Loeb, T Smith, Tarasoff, Polen, Nygren, Dorsey, Kantesaria, Hohn, Rochon, Tepper, and B Lawrence. Obviously, look at whoever you want. Below is their combined holdings, comprising those holdings over 5% of each fund. These guys are not index huggers and have a view, so this info is of some use imo.

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I will follow this going forward. Hopefully, it steers me away from making more mistakes. we shall see.

I wanted to look at portfolio composition, ie concentration. Again, holdings over 5% of their portfolios, we see an interesting mix, those that are “bxxxs in”, 6 have over 90% of their portfolio in the over 5% holdings (usually 8-10 stocks), and the rest are spread out. My view is that concentration depends on your own personal style, and this sort of indicates that, though all of these guys are concentrated versus most mutual funds, as you would expect.

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Worth a look if you want to see what the superinvestors are holding or changes being made. I didn’t include Buffett or Akre because they are in retirement mode, up to you.

Bold are my current holdings.


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wonkeydonkey
Added 7 months ago

Not a lot of love for tesla ;-)

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lowway
Added 7 months ago

Or Nvidia @wonkeydonkey !!

Thanks for the effort in putting this together @Solvetheriddle, very interesting from a portfolio composition perspective.

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wonkeydonkey
Added 7 months ago

Yes indeed @lowway,@Solvetheriddle some of the composition is quite interesting for reference purposes.

Admittedly, I held a very different composition of US stocks until the carnage of Trump & Elon. I sold some of the Mag 7 stocks in Jan Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet and Apple as a more defensive position given the volatility. I held Microsoft and NVIDIA as I speculated that they would have more resilience.(reasonable guess so far)

I think chatgbt has got meta wrong its about 20% up so it has done very well

To think there is still another 3.5 years of Trump to navigate ;-)

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Solvetheriddle
Added 7 months ago

@lowway , that was a surprise to me. No NVDA, no holdings whatsoever at the guys I looked at. I can only reconcile that they think the moat will be breached at some point -margins down or growth stumbles a lot. Probably a volatile ride for NVDA

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lowway
Added 7 months ago

Funny thing is they almost all need TSM & ASM for the semi-conductor components @BigStrawbs70, at least at the moment. So, using your picks & shovels analogy, maybe these 2 companies are a better option than Nvidia long-term?

The comment regarding the Big Investors missing some of the larger, actively upwards companies, including Nvida was not saying this is the way forward now or that their current holdings are how we should allocate our portfolio diversification going forward. It was more a comment on what they are holding now and what they, as large investors, have missed by sticking with the nominated holdings. I think @Solvetheriddle is correct as a rational reason, i.e. potentially no moat for Nvidia, but there certainly is for TSM & ASML for the foreseeable future.

BTW none are held IRL or SM by me but have been watching TSM & ASML for a while. Just swayed by my SMSF to invest locally for now, at least until I have a better understanding of their real power and possible contenders coming over the parapets!!


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lowway
Added 7 months ago

Love your thinking and direction @BigStrawbs70 !!

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wonkeydonkey
Added 7 months ago

Yes local is certainly feels less risky just now. Saying that I have dipped my toe in the Japanese markets.(read two modest investments in a very narrow industry focus)

There seem to be several factors driving the upswing in Japan just now according to those in the know ( and I am certainly not an expert )


1) The return of inflation in Japan. Japan, which has suffered from deflation for so many years. Now Japanese companies can finally raise prices and potentially boost margins after many years of forced cost discipline.

2) Yen is at an attractive rate

3) Policies have been implemented to improve corporate governance and profitability, and positive sentiment has sparked the domestic market into life again 

4) Diversification for global portfolios given the situation in the US

Good thing is the markets open at the same time as ASX currently. Bad thing they have a lunch break and I need to buy round amounts and I don't speak Japanese but keeps interesting ;-).

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tomsmithidg
Added 7 months ago

I'm surprised there is no NVDA too, to me it is the most appealing of the Mag 7. I've posted the below before but I think it's worth posting again.

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Looks like the sort of profit and margin that I like to see in a company.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 7 months ago

@tomsmithidg, yes, the numbers are outstanding, maybe too outstanding. Although I am a shareholder and optimistic, there are few companies that can sell all their output at a price they basically choose, so a question over the LT sustainability of margins and secondly, although the growth of AI over the long term looks positive there are likely to be bottlenecks, lags, pauses etc which will make this ride a volatile one, imo. Having said that, below $100, which it was a couple of months back, it is not priced that aggressively given the incumbent position and likely growth. So I'm holding and looking for opportunities here.

as an aside, the overall theme of the superinvestors, as I see it, is some concentration, but concentrated in very strong businesses under a whole range of various outcomes, so aggressive in lower risk bets..


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