Not a lot of love for tesla ;-)

Or Nvidia @wonkeydonkey !!

Thanks for the effort in putting this together @Solvetheriddle, very interesting from a portfolio composition perspective.

Yes indeed @lowway,@Solvetheriddle some of the composition is quite interesting for reference purposes.

Admittedly, I held a very different composition of US stocks until the carnage of Trump & Elon. I sold some of the Mag 7 stocks in Jan Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet and Apple as a more defensive position given the volatility. I held Microsoft and NVIDIA as I speculated that they would have more resilience.(reasonable guess so far)

I think chatgbt has got meta wrong its about 20% up so it has done very well

To think there is still another 3.5 years of Trump to navigate ;-)

@lowway , that was a surprise to me. No NVDA, no holdings whatsoever at the guys I looked at. I can only reconcile that they think the moat will be breached at some point -margins down or growth stumbles a lot. Probably a volatile ride for NVDA

Another interesting note @wonkeydonkey is that the Semi-Conductors ETF (SOXQ) has outperformed the NASDAQ over the last 1 and 6 months.

Probably nothing....but that is like ignoring the carney in the coal mine looking a bit sick!

100% @Solvetheriddle

The entire globe is screaming for processors, and while NVIDIA is the leader of the pack, it's hard IMO to see how all of the leading chip makers don’t do well over the coming period. For example, see Broadcom’s growing position in the NASDAQ index.

If you see them as an AI and power company that just happens to build cars, I’d also suggest it’s brave to bet against Tesla. They may very well not be the number one electric car maker in the future but they will do just fine with autonomous cars/taxi. I also don't see how they’re not a leader in the future of robotics and power generation….and we need sooooo much more power in the future! We, and the rest of the globe, just won’t generate enough. Please note I said leader, I’m not saying they’ll be number one, but I am very comfortable they be up there.

I guess I’m turning my portfolio more towards the various elements that will underpin where I believe the economy is heading. I’m not saying I’ll get everything right, but, a bit like how many people made money from the gold rush days by selling picks and shovels, rather than having the biggest gold mine, I’m pretty certain we can select a basket of companies at each layer underpinning the AI and robotics future (I’ll leave Bitcoin and Stable Coins for this post) that will be directionally in the ballpark, and I reckon that’ll do well enough.

Funny thing is they almost all need TSM & ASM for the semi-conductor components @BigStrawbs70, at least at the moment. So, using your picks & shovels analogy, maybe these 2 companies are a better option than Nvidia long-term?

The comment regarding the Big Investors missing some of the larger, actively upwards companies, including Nvida was not saying this is the way forward now or that their current holdings are how we should allocate our portfolio diversification going forward. It was more a comment on what they are holding now and what they, as large investors, have missed by sticking with the nominated holdings. I think @Solvetheriddle is correct as a rational reason, i.e. potentially no moat for Nvidia, but there certainly is for TSM & ASML for the foreseeable future.

BTW none are held IRL or SM by me but have been watching TSM & ASML for a while. Just swayed by my SMSF to invest locally for now, at least until I have a better understanding of their real power and possible contenders coming over the parapets!!

Totally agree and great points @lowway

Just to keep using the analogy… TSM & ASML are almost like the folks who make the components that build the picks and shovels.

Anyway, as mentioned earlier, I prefer a basket of companies for each layer in this brave new world. So for the processors layer, I’ve been buying into SOXQ (and starting to sell down the Nasdaq 100 ETF), which currently has ~11% allocated to TSM & ASML. It could certainly be higher, but as per my earlier posts, I’m comfortable being directionally right.

Love your thinking and direction @BigStrawbs70 !!

Yes local is certainly feels less risky just now. Saying that I have dipped my toe in the Japanese markets.(read two modest investments in a very narrow industry focus)

There seem to be several factors driving the upswing in Japan just now according to those in the know ( and I am certainly not an expert )

1) The return of inflation in Japan. Japan, which has suffered from deflation for so many years. Now Japanese companies can finally raise prices and potentially boost margins after many years of forced cost discipline.

2) Yen is at an attractive rate

3) Policies have been implemented to improve corporate governance and profitability, and positive sentiment has sparked the domestic market into life again 

4) Diversification for global portfolios given the situation in the US

Good thing is the markets open at the same time as ASX currently. Bad thing they have a lunch break and I need to buy round amounts and I don't speak Japanese but keeps interesting ;-).

I'm surprised there is no NVDA too, to me it is the most appealing of the Mag 7. I've posted the below before but I think it's worth posting again.

Looks like the sort of profit and margin that I like to see in a company.

@tomsmithidg, yes, the numbers are outstanding, maybe too outstanding. Although I am a shareholder and optimistic, there are few companies that can sell all their output at a price they basically choose, so a question over the LT sustainability of margins and secondly, although the growth of AI over the long term looks positive there are likely to be bottlenecks, lags, pauses etc which will make this ride a volatile one, imo. Having said that, below $100, which it was a couple of months back, it is not priced that aggressively given the incumbent position and likely growth. So I'm holding and looking for opportunities here.

as an aside, the overall theme of the superinvestors, as I see it, is some concentration, but concentrated in very strong businesses under a whole range of various outcomes, so aggressive in lower risk bets..