0035 GMT - Australian outdoor advertiser oOh!media could struggle to deliver significant fiscal 2026 earnings growth following the loss of its contract with Auckland Transport, E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski warns. He acknowledges that the market was aware that the contract was due to expire end-September, but doesn't think that the loss was necessarily incorporated into consensus estimates. The company says that the contract represented about 4% of group revenue and that it planned for the eventuality, but Raykovski writes in a note that the contract was higher margin than the rest of oOh!media's portfolio. E&P has a positive rating and A$1.80 target price on the stock, which is down 1.9% at A$1.6925. ([email protected])

0003 GMT - Paladin Energy is likely to re-rate ahead as the miner shakes off recent negative sentiment, says Bell Potter analyst Regan Burrows. The broker upgrades the stock's target to A$9.20 from A$6.50 previously and keeps a buy rating. Burrows reckons market expectations of Paladin's 4Q result are likely conservative, "creating a low hurdle bar for PDN to exceed." Analysts expect uranium production of roughly 783,000 pounds from Paladin's Langer Heinrich mine in 4Q, according to Visible Alpha. That is in line with Bell Potter's own estimates. "Coming out of the 4QFY25 result we should have a better understanding of mining rates, ore performance and sales contracts, which, when combined with a reshuffle in CEOs, should provide positive sentiment heading into FY26," says Burrows. Paladin is up 2.2% at A$7.29. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2357 GMT - Hub24's stronger-than-expected net flows are seen as a material positive by E&P analysts, especially when compared with a recent miss by rival wealth-management platform Netwealth. Olivier Coulon and Shankari Thayakaran tell clients in a note that Hub24's net flows of A$5.32 billion were ahead of their A$5.1 billion forecast, and modestly beat consensus on an underlying basis. A key driver was the A$1.2 billion from the migration of EQT funds onto the platform, with the size seen by both analysts as a function of market performance and a small expansion of the underlying migration. E&P has a last-published neutral rating and A$75.60 target price on the stock, which is at A$94.50 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2337 GMT - Earnings at ANZ's institutional bank have probably peaked and are likely to weigh on the lender's outlook for the next couple of years, Morgan Stanley analysts warn. They anticipate a 15% fall in institutional earnings over two years, with margins compressed by competition and falling interest rates. Modest volume growth is also likely and will provide only a partial offset, they add. In the MS analysts' view, the outlook for ANZ's institutional bank will be an important share-price driver over the remainder of 2025 and into the medium term. This limits the potential for any share-price re-rate, they say in a note. ([email protected])

2328 GMT -- There's a lot hinging on Lotus Resources restarting the Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi on time, suggests Bell Potter. Lotus has begun commissioning the mill at Kayelekera ahead of a target for first production in the September quarter. Analyst Regan Burrows expects Lotus to achieve that goal, subject to teething issues within the plant. "We believe the market is skeptical of the restart, and partially rightly so, given the issues experienced across the space over the last 12 months," Bell Potter says. "Should Lotus demonstrate a successful restart and commence processing of fresh ore, we believe this would be the catalyst for re-rate." Bell Potter retains a buy call and A$0.35/share price target. Lotus ended Monday at A$0.175. ([email protected])

2331 GMT - Macquarie Technology isn't growing as quickly as some other data-center operators, but it's also a lot cheaper, Morgan Stanley analysts observe. For example, NextDC is trading at about 40 times MS's fiscal 2026 Ebitda forecast. This compares with about 18 times Ebitda for Macquarie Technology, which has other operations besides data centers and isn't sitting on as much land. Simply put, the MS analysts say that Macquarie Technology represents another way for investors to play the cloud and AI growth thematic. Macquarie Technology's latest planned data-center campus could generate annual project revenues of A$500 million and Ebitda of A$150 million-A$200 million, they add. MS has an "overweight" rating and A$102.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$67.85 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2329 GMT - Power negotiations at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique are worth keeping a close eye on given it would cost more than US$200 million to shut down and restart the operation, Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand says in a note. Yet similar negotiations around the world--including in New Zealand and Australia--have resulted in last-minute deals to protect jobs, says Anand. The smelter contributes roughly 4% of Mozambique's GDP, and creates thousands of direct and indirect jobs, he says. "We also note S32 has been trading below fair value (base case: A$3.95/share) as the market has been watching this key risk that has previously been flagged by the Mozambique government." MS has an "overweight" rating and A$3.05/share target on South32. The stock ended Monday down 5.1%, at A$2.95. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2319 GMT -- Hansen Technologies's earnings upgrade adds ballast to Morgan Stanley's positive view of the stock. Hansen raised its FY 2025 cash Ebitda forecast to A$92 million-A$94 million, representing a 16% uplift at the midpoint of the guidance range. Driving that improvement was a sharper and earlier turnaround in German software business powercloud, along with cost savings, analyst Andrew McLeod says. MS views the turnaround of powercloud as strategically important. That's because it underscores management's "track record of identifying assets, pricing attractively and then successfully integrating bolt-on M&A," MS says. It retains a A$6.50/share price target on Hansen, which ended Monday at A$5.30. ([email protected])

2315 GMT - The outlook for Qantas Airways in FY 2026 has strengthened, Macquarie says. It highlights that capacity growth across the industry in Australia remains disciplined at 2%-4%. Still, it's somewhat wary about the U.S. and how that might affect Qantas's international business. More A380 aircraft are coming back into service, which Macquarie says will drive the addition of 11% more flights and 20% more economy seats. "We are cautious on this, along with a second A380 flight to Singapore step-changing its capacity," Macquarie says. "The risk is yield pressure (already assumed) and some load factor decline." It retains a "neutral" call on Qantas, but raises its price target by 3%, to A$10.40/share. Qantas ended Monday at A$10.73. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2302 GMT - Citi analyst Thomas Strong remains largely bearish on major Australian banks but concede that valuation support through 2025 now looks possible. Strong tells clients in a note that the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise decision not to cut the country's cash rate this month looks like another small positive for ANZ, Commonwealth, NAB and Westpac. He thinks that the slower-than-expected pace of interest-rate cuts, combined with earlier liability pricing by the lenders, improves near-term net-interest margin prospects. Earnings risk is increasingly looking like a story for the 2026 fiscal year, he adds. Citi rates ANZ a "hold," and has a "sell" rating on the other three banks. ([email protected])

2257 GMT -- The suggestion that JPMorgan might start charging financial technology providers to use customer data doesn't look like a material issue for Australia-listed Xero and Zip, according to Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed. Ahmed tells clients in a note that both companies access U.S. bank accounts either directly or through intermediaries. However, he reckons that accounting-software provider Xero could raise prices to offset any cost increase. Ahmed thinks that installment-payment provider Zip is shielded because it does not use bank statements or accounts for credit decisions. Neither company has been contacted by JPMorgan over potential fees, he adds. ([email protected])

2246 GMT -- Hansen Technologies continues to offer good value for investors despite Monday's earnings upgrade sending its shares up by 11%, Shaw & Partners says. Hansen raised its FY 2025 cash Ebitda guidance to A$92 million-A$94 million, representing a 16% improvement at the midpoint of the range. Hansen still only trades on a multiple of 12x estimates for its cash Ebitda in FY 2026, analyst Jules Cooper says. That is 15% lower than its own historical average "which arguably doesn't reflect the higher revenue outlook being communicated," Shaw says. "We expect Hansen's stock will continue to re-rate, and it remains a top pick." Hansen ended Monday at A$5.30, well below Shaw's A$7.30/share price target. ([email protected])

1837 ET - All eyes are on National Storage REIT as a takeover campaign for Abacus Storage King edges forward. Abacus Storage King has agreed to let a consortium of Public Storage and Ki Corp carry out due diligence on a potential A$1.65/security offer. Their ambitions may rest on getting National Storage REIT to back a bid. National Storage REIT owns 8.3% of Abacus Storage King. Larry Gandler, an analyst at Shaw & Partners, says National Storage REIT may want Public Storage to pay fair value. There's also a risk that it wants to stymie the transaction and prevent a well-capitalized U.S. competitor from entering the Australian storage market. "If that were to be the case, Abacus Storage King's share price could trade down as this transaction unwinds," Shaw says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0638 GMT - Iluka shares could rise further if it can secure similar rare-earths prices to a deal agreed between MP Materials and the Pentagon, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. Citi's discounted cash flow valuation for Iluka, at A$5.30/share, includes A$0.92/share for the company's Eneabba rare-earths refinery, which is under construction, McTaggart says. That valuation assumes a US$90/kilogram price for neodymium-praseodymium long term, he says. The U.S. Defense Department is guaranteeing a floor of US$110/kilogram for MP Materials. At that price, Iluka's refinery would be worth A$1.40/share, says McTaggart. Citi's DCF for Iluka would rise to A$5.80/share, he adds. Citi had a buy-high risk rating on Iluka, with a target of A$5.20. The stock, which gained 23% Friday on the MP Materials-Pentagon deal, is down 2.9% at A$4.75. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0532 GMT - The most likely outcome at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter is it experiences higher energy costs that weigh on the asset's value, RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker says in a note. He expects no change to the price paid for the aluminum Mozal produces, which is sold into Europe at a premium. The worst-case scenario, says Peker, is that Mozal is shuttered. It is already a higher-cost operation versus rivals, he says. In that case, South32 could potentially sell excess alumina into the spot market, says Peker. He calls South32's update on Mozal negative, although says concerns about securing a longer-dated electricity contract have been well flagged. RBC has an outperform rating and A$3.70 target on South32. The stock is down 4.7% at A$2.965. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires