Forum Topics CMM CMM I'm back in CMM

Pinned straw:

Added 5 months ago

14/7/2025: I've been looking to add further diversified gold exposure to my SMSF and I did that today by buying back into Cap Metals (CMM) at $9.33 after selling out of MAQ (Macquarie Technologies, a data centre builder/owner/operator that operate mostly in Canberra and Sydney) @ $66.77 average (sell prices ranging from $66.70 to $66.88) after they popped almost +8% this morning on an announcement of a Sydney land purchase option agreement and a positive update on their IC3 SuperWest data centre development progress (Proposed-Land-Acquisition.PDF). I had built a position in MAQ during recent months at prices from $58 to $62/share after their SP had fallen from $90/share at the beginning of this year. I still like the company, but I think CMM has more near term upside, so I took the profit on MAQ and switched that capital into CMM.

I note MAQ got up to $67.80 earlier this morning, but was falling when I sold out late morning at $66.77 (average) and they're now trading at around $65 as I type this, so the spike in their SP might be short-lived.

It wasn't much of a profit, but it was the company in my Super that I had the least conviction in over the short to mid-term, despite remaining bullish on their longer term prospects, and I want to have most of my investable capital invested in my very best ideas most of the time, so I had to cut them loose to make way for Cap Metals again.

The main things to know about Capricorn Metals (CMM) is that they have great management, led by their Executive Chairman Mark Clark, who have great form for getting gold projects built and producing on time and on budget, not just with Karlawinda, Cap Metals' flagship gold mine, but also back in the early Regis Resources (RRL) days at Duketon and before that at Equigold, which was bought out by Lihir, which was bought out by Newcrest, which was bought out by Newmont (the world's largest gold company), AND CMM have great projects as well.

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Karlawinda is their producing gold mine, and Mt Gibson is their big development project. The main things to know about Mt Gibson are that they have a lot of gold there, and;

  • The Mt Gibson site was a previously producing gold mine under earlier operators:
  • Gold production commenced in 1986, exploiting laterite and oxide ores through shallow open-cut pits (up to ~100 m deep), including some limited underground operations, and between 1986 and 1999, the mine processed approximately 12.5 Mt of ore at ~1.99 g/t, yielding about 799,600 oz of gold via CIL, with an additional ~68,900 oz recovered from heap leach – totalling around 868,500 oz. Operations were placed on care and maintenance in 1999 and the site remained inactive until Capricorn Metals acquired it in 2021. They have found a heap more gold there since then of course.
  • Capricorn Metals’ Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP) is currently undergoing its final environmental permitting phase. Capricorn lodged the Public Environmental Report (PER) for Mt Gibson with the Australian Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) in December 2024. Permitting time was expected to be within 6 months. It's now been 7 months. It's important to remember that this was a previously active gold mine so there should be no objections to getting it back into production.
  • Argonaut’s latest research indicates that their opinion is that: “Securing the final environmental approvals for Mt Gibson is expected to occur in the next few months” (as of May 2025). Source: https://www.argonaut.com/capricorn-metals-cmm-on-track-for-fy25-guidance/
  • That aligns with an approval timeline sometime in mid-2025, preceding the onset of full-scale project construction in early FY26 (which has just begun).
  • Main point being, their final permit is imminent now. Could happen any day, but regardless, it should not be far away.


Another positive is that the company is now debt free and fully unhedged:

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Here's a brief overview of what I'm getting with exposure to CMM:

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They're an ASX200 company with a current m/cap of just over $4 billion, so they are one of the majors now. And they have very competent management who have a history of making sensible capital allocation decisions.

In my opinion they do have a quality / management premium in their share price, so they are not cheap, however the recent pullback in the gold price has presented an opportunity for me to get back into CMM at around $1.50 less than their recent high point of $10.80 (reached only 4 weeks ago on the 16th June).

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In summary, they're not cheap, but I'm willing to pay up for quality management in this space, because management matters a LOT, particularly in mining, and the imminent final approval for Mt Gibson (when it happens) should provide a decent positive catalyst for a further leg up on their chart from here, IMO.

Disclosure: Holding (again).

Bear77
Added 5 months ago

22nd July 2025: CMM released this today: MGGP Maiden Underground Resource 684Koz at 3.1g/t Au

The headline is that ongoing drilling at the Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP) has increased the Mineral Resource Estimation (MRE) by 507 Koz (13%) to 4.5 Moz. 

This is a significant increase and includes a 684 Koz maiden underground MRE at Orion South and a maiden MRE at the Highway deposit.  

We haven't got that final environmental approval yet to allow CapMetals to press the big green "GO" button at Mt Gibson but I'm expecting that to come through in the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, CMM is up +5% already today, so the market likes their announcement. Mind you, it's a been a good morning across most companies in the Aussie gold sector.

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Images sourced from: https://capmetals.com.au/projects/mount-gibson-gold/


Disclosure: I hold CMM in my super, and also a much smaller position here in my Strawman.com virtual portfolio.

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Bear77
Added 4 months ago

29th July 2025: Two Announcements today. The expansion of Karlawinda has received final approvals; still waiting on the final approval for Mt Gibson. And they are still finding plenty more gold.

29/07/2025 8:34 am AEST - Quarterly Exploration Update [66 pages]

29/07/2025 8:28 am AEST - Regulatory Approval Received for Development of KEP [3 pages, KEP = Karlawinda Expansion Project]

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Further Viewing - including from back during the build of Karlawinda:

Feb 15, 2022: Karlawinda Gold Project Update (from the Capricorn Metals 2021 Annual General Meeting)

Feb 22, 2023: Uncovering the Treasures of the Karlawinda Gold Project with MACA [MACA have the mining contract at Karlawinda]

Karlawinda today:

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Source: https://capmetals.com.au/projects/karlawinda-gold/

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Disclosure: Holding.

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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

Friday 19th September 2025: I'm going back over a few of the results announcements from last month, and I reckon CapMetals (CMM) was a really good one:

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Source: Full Year Statutory Accounts [29th August 2025]

And there's still Mt Gibson to come, with the impending final approvals for Mt Gibson likely to provide another positive catalyst to drive the CMM share price even higher.

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CMM's Mt Gibson GP (gold project) is adjacent to the Great Northern Highway and had previously been an operating gold mine under previous ownership, so it's not a greenfields development and approvals are really just a formality, albeit a painstakingly slow formality.

So Mt Gibson will provide further upside, but so will their expansion at Karlawinda up to a whopping 6.5 Mtpa processing capacity:

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Karlawinda Background

The Project area is underlain by a largely unexplored and only recently recognised belt of Archaean-aged greenstone rocks that were discovered in 2005. This belt of predominantly volcanic and sedimentary rocks is located on the southern margin of the Sylvania Dome, a major structure where Archaean predominantly granitic basement rocks thought to be part of the Pilbara Craton, are exposed at surface within surrounding younger Proterozoic aged sedimentary basins. Typically, at the KGP the bedrock geology is obscured by a thin cover of sandy soil up to 2m thick.

The Karlawinda Project consists of over 2,000 square kilometres of prospective tenure which includes the greenstone belt hosting the 2.2 million ounce Resource and 1.2 million ounce Reserve Bibra gold deposit and other areas deemed highly prospective for gold. Due to the location of the project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia (a region not historically explored for gold), very little modern and meaningful gold exploration has been completed outside of the immediate Bibra deposit.

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Karlawinda exploration targets


Bibra

The Bibra deposit is part of a large-scale Archaean gold mineralising system with mineralisation hosted within a package of deformed meta-sediments and meta volcanic rocks and is developed on four main parallel, shallow dipping structures. Close to surface in the weathered rock, oxide gold mineralisation has been developed over the structures from surface to a depth of approximately 60m. Mineralisation in fresh rock extends to at least 620m vertical depth where the deepest drillhole intersects the orebody, while the classified MRE extending 360m below surface which demonstrates the possibility for future MRE growth.

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Cross section of the Bibra deposit


Karlawinda Mill Construction

Construction of the KGP commenced in December 2019 and was completed in June 2021 with the successful commissioning of the processing plant culminating in first gold poured of 386 ounces on 30 June 2021. The project was completed in line with time and cost guidance. In September 2021 the Company announced the project had reached steady state operations.

The KGP processing plant throughput capacity is anticipated to be:

  • 4.5 – 5.0 mtpa in the oxide/fresh ore blend in the first 3 years; and
  • 4.0 – 4.5 mtpa in solely fresh rock ore in years 4 and beyond.

These throughput capacities are expected to produce a long-term production range of 110,000 to 125,000 ounces per annum.

Source: https://capmetals.com.au/projects/karlawinda-gold/

So that's from their website today, and needs to be updated because they're now expanding Karalwinda up to a nameplate capacity of 6.5 mtpa, which will be capable of annual gold production of around 150,000 ounces, approx. 25% higher than their current annual gold production capacity.

Lots to like. Great management. They get things done, on time and on or under budget. Growing at a good clip with near-term and mid-term positive catalysts to drive further interest and share price appreciation. Not cheap but deserves to trade with a quality premium in their share price, so I expect they may always look expensive compared to some of their peers as long as management keep on delivering as they have to date.

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Discl: Held.

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