Forum Topics LGI LGI CEO Meeting

Pinned straw:

Added 5 months ago

This was an interesting chat, and great to see the business standing on its own feet in terms of cash flows nd profits (especially in what is a somewhat capital intensive endeavour).

The recording is in the usual place, and the transcript is here for anyone that is interested: LGI Transcript.pdf

I've paste the The AI summary of the meeting below, but for me a few things that stood out were:

  • Growth is not capped by capital, per se, but rather the pace of deployment is throttled by the bureaucratic process of working through council processes.
  • They have identified 200 odd suitable sites across australia, with only 34 operating sites at present
  • Carbon credits and renewable incentives are half their revenue (roughly) -- so there is some regulatory/government risk if things change there. But it seems like it's good going for the moment
  • They seem to have built up a good body of IP and know-how over the years -- not just the engineering know-how, but internally built software for managing power generation and trading.
  • I suspect the pace of growth has the potential to be decent, but I wouldn't expect it to be sustained at a very high rate. It just takes time to secure sites and deploy infrastructure. And then there are variables around electricity and credit pricing. Not saying this is a bad thing, but worth appreciating the reality.
  • It was funny that the main reason they're not (yet) pursuing bitcoin mining as a means to monetise their electricity capacity is purely due to investor perceptions. Mainly because BTC mining is (mistakenly) seen as environmentally harmful and wasteful, which is at odds with their green credentials. It's a shame, but perceptions will eventually change.


AI Notes

What LGI does:

  • Captures methane from landfill, turning a harmful greenhouse gas into renewable electricity and carbon credits. Runs 34+ sites across Australia, focusing mainly on the East Coast.

Company origins & journey:

  • Founded 2009; listed on ASX in late 2022. Currently making ~$30m+ in annual revenue, notably cashflow positive and profitable — rare in this sector.

Why landfill gas matters:

  • Methane has ~28x the warming potential of CO₂. Capturing it not only reduces emissions but provides a useful energy source (methane = main component of natural gas).

How they make money:

  • Three revenue streams:
  • Selling electricity (to grid or direct to big customers)
  • Generating Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)
  • Service fees for installing & managing landfill gas systems

Customer pitch to landfills:

  • We help you meet environmental obligations, improve community relations, and share in the revenue — all without upfront cost.

Market opportunity:

  • ~1,000 landfills in Australia; ~200 suit LGI’s model. They’re currently at ~34 sites, so big runway ahead.

Margins & financials:

  • Carbon credits = highest-margin part. Flaring-only projects can pay back CapEx (~$500–750k) within ~3 years.
  • Power stations cost ~$3.5m per MW initially but scale better over time. Construction services generate ~50% margin but are smaller overall.

Tech & operations:

  • Landfills are “living” systems — gas production varies over decades. LGI’s internal “DACS” software dynamically adjusts operations to match gas availability + electricity price fluctuations, boosting returns by 12–15%; with batteries, even higher.

Bitcoin mining question:

  • They’ve considered using landfill gas to power Bitcoin mining (noting Daniel Batten’s research on methane mitigation), but optics around Bitcoin + renewables can be tricky. They’re keeping it as a future option.

Capital and growth plans:

  • Aim to triple MW capacity over the next few years, funded carefully (cashflow, debt, and ACCUs on balance sheet). They’re cautious about raising capital prematurely, wanting to maintain a “deliver-what-we-say” reputation.

Carbon credit outlook:

  • ACCUs currently make up ~half of revenue. Government reviews ongoing; current expectation is ~10–12 years of future revenue, but they’re not banking on it forever — hence the push to grow the energy side.

Competitive edge:

  • Vertically integrated — they design, install, operate, and trade everything in-house (drill rigs, flares, generators, trading desks). Competitors outsource more, making LGI’s pitch stronger to councils.

Challenges & learnings:

  • Jarryd openly acknowledged not everything goes to plan; values managing expectations and being upfront about setbacks.

Final tone:

  • Jarryd comes across as technically sharp but balanced, focused on disciplined growth, reputation, and long-term value — not just chasing hype.


moyleh
Added 5 months ago

Jarryd said that by managing production into peak load they were able to increase return by 15% as stated, however more interestingly the recent inclusion of batteries allowed them to increase the return by 70%, This is accomplished by using their proprietary software to manage both generation and the batteries. This should have a considerable impact for the revenues of the power production.


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Strawman
Added 5 months ago

Oh, glad you mentioned that @moyleh — I should have highlighted it.

You may have even seen my jaw drop when he said it.

Not to go on about it too much (sorry), but that’s exactly why Bitcoin mining is such a natural fit for these guys. It adds another buyer into the mix, giving them a lot more ability to optimise what they can sell their electrons for.

Forget any opinion you may have on the magic internet beans — the reality is, there’s no other customer like it for an electricity generator. Always a buyer of last resort, can spin up or down in an instant, producing a commodity that can always be sold instantly into a highly deep and liquid market that’s open 24/7, tiny footprint, no exogenous infrastructure requirements, can relocate easily… (and you’re helping to secure the world’s most robust and incorruptible public ledger!)

At the very least it'd be worth a small trial. Just open the doors to 3rd party miners and let them worry about the set up.

I find it more than a little ironic that they didn't pursue it more because of the perceptions of some shareholders, who it seems were quite attracted by the ESG/renewable angle, and who see BTC mining as bad for the environment (which it isn't)

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