Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 24 Jul 2025 14:50:02
Jimmy
Added 4 months ago

0401 GMT - Bapcor's attempt to improve analysts' sentiment toward the stock by discussing the company's trading performance appears to have been unsuccessful. Citi analyst Sam Teeger tells clients in a note that he left the call feeling more bearish. He points to the absence of information on why three directors have stepped down, worries that retail weakness could persist into Bapcor's 2026 fiscal year, and a recent softening in the auto-parts supplier's trade segment. He is also unconvinced by management's implication that weakness in Bapcor's specialist wholesale unit is temporary. Citi has a last-published neutral rating and a target price of A$5.43 on the stock, which is down 29% at A$3.61. ([email protected])

0349 GMT - Citi analyst Paul McTaggart isn't sure how much of Woodside Energy's stronger-than-expected 2Q cost performance can be repeated. He tells clients in a note that it isn't clear how much of the energy producer's lower cost base is due to structural changes, and how much relates to one-off factors. More positively, he points out that Woodside effectively upgraded its 2025 production guidance by 3% given the impact of the Greater Angostura divestment. Citi stays neutral on the stock while it waits on further news on Woodside's efforts to sell down its stake in its Louisiana LNG gas-export infrastructure. It raises the target price by 19% to A$25.50. Shares are up 1.1% to A$25.48. ([email protected])

0336 GMT - WiseTech Global investors shouldn't be surprised if the logistics-software provider's annual result announcement is met by a big share-price move, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. They point out in a note that the stock typically moves by an average 15% in either direction on a result announcement, and warn that there are a larger than normal number of moving parts at the company this year. They reckon there is a 50% chance that WiseTech's annual result and fiscal 2026 guidance meet expectations. They see a 30% chance of stronger-than-anticipated guidance, which could push shares up by 10-20%. A miss in the other direction could mean a 10-20% share-price fall, they add. MS has an overweight rating and A$140.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.3% at A$119.69. ([email protected])

0305 GMT - Macquarie management's confidence in the Australian financial giant's performance encourages UBS analysts, who say its 1Q update is slightly softer than the market was expecting. The UBS analysts tell clients in a note that the update implies a 10% fall in 1Q profit. However, management says the performance is in line with their expectations and influenced by the timing of asset realizations. This offers some reassurance to the UBS analysts, who are starting to see Macquarie deliver a series of misses relative to expectations. Its reliance on commodities and global markets reduces earnings visibility, they warn. UBS has a neutral rating and A$225.00 target price on the stock, which is down 4.4% at A$215.37. ([email protected])

0222 GMT - Lynas Rare Earths' 4Q production, sales and prices are better than expected, according to Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan. That is partially offset by disappointments on unit costs and capital expenditure, he says. "Lynas will need to sign strategic, new offtake mechanisms or partnerships to justify current valuations," Ryan says. It "is strategically well positioned to do so, capturing any market strength through production expansions and diversification." Jefferies has a buy rating and A$10.00 target on Lynas. The stock is up 3.0% at A$10.44. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0144 GMT - Ampol's performance in its non-refining businesses looks impressive to Macquarie analysts given the challenges it faces from weak fuel volumes and tobacco sales. They write in a note that the Australian company's ability to grow convenience retail Ebit shows discipline in fuel pricing and highlights its premium fuel strategies. They raise their EPS forecast for fiscal 2025 on lower interest and tax expenses, but cut by 3.6% for fiscal 2026 and by 3.2% for fiscal 2027 on expected lower fuel sales volumes. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and A$27.50 target price on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$27.85. ([email protected])

2335 GMT - Investors are likely to react positively to Fortescue's strong hematite operational performance and a reduction in energy spending, Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says in a note. Fortescue's FY 2025 iron-ore shipments are a record and 4% higher year over year, while hematite costs edged lower, he notes. Energy spending in FY 2026 is reduced to roughly US$700 million versus about US$1.1 billion in FY 2025. Realized 4Q pricing for Fortescue's hematite product is broadly as expected, McTaggart adds. Citi has a neutral rating and A$16.00 target on Fortescue. The stock ended Wednesday at A$18.21. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0451 GMT - Uranium producer Paladin Energy's 4Q realized pricing and FY 2026 cost guidance disappoint Citi analyst Samuel Schubert. The stock slides 13% to A$7.13/share. Schubert says Paladin's average realized price, at US$55.60/pound, falls well short of the US$69/pound Citi expected. Paladin's cost guidance of US$44-US$48/pound is higher than Citi's estimate of roughly US$38/pound. That said, "strong quarterly production print should be a relief to the market," he says. Citi has a buy rating and A$10.10 target on the stock. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

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