0130 GMT - The risk that Peabody's planned $3.78-billion takeover of Anglo American's metallurgical coal assets will end up in arbitration has increased, according to Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. That "may now be the base case," rather than the miners agreeing on new terms for the deal, LaFemina says in a note. "Things could get messy," he says. Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad recently said he was "working constructively" with Peabody to close the deal. The U.S. miner threatened to pull out following a fire at the Moranbah North mine in Australia. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0019 GMT - The big surprise in Beach Energy's annual result was the size of its final dividend. Beach had last week rattled confidence with a chunky asset impairment and faster-than-expected field decline. Today, however, Beach's share price rises 4% to A$1.185 after directors declare a record final dividend of A$0.06/share. That brought the total dividend for FY 2025 to A$0.09/share. Euroz Hartleys had expected a final dividend of A$0.04/share, which was in line with consensus hopes. "Given the forecast increased production and potential for improved pre-growth free cash flow generation, Beach's dividend is set to continue to increase," analyst Declan Bonnick says. Euroz Hartleys had assumed a dividend of A$0.08/share in FY 2026 heading into the annual result. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0013 GMT - Sigma Healthcare's merger with Chemist Warehouse Group was great. Its stock valuation not so much, says Bell Potter. "The current market capitalization is not supported by expectations for earnings growth or dividend yield," says analyst John Hester. Bell Potter starts Sigma at sell with a A$2.00/share price target. That compares to Sigma's last trade of A$2.83. "Short-term catalysts include the imminent expiry of the first escrow date for co-founders to commence a partial sell down," Bell Potter says. It expects 2H earnings to be weaker than 1H, albeit this is a typical seasonal trend. Bell Potter predicts there will be a convergence of FY 2026 consensus earnings after Sigma reports its annual result this month.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2356 GMT - Much is riding on Australian banks meeting expectations for earnings and dividends when they update the market. Share prices of the major banks mostly underperformed the benchmark ASX 200 in July. Morgan Stanley attributes this to a brief rotation into mining, driven by higher iron-ore prices and renewed China stimulus hopes. Looking ahead to the banks' results season, MS expects revenue growth and margins to be the key earnings drivers, along with capital management strategies. "While the operating environment remains broadly stable, any disappointment on earnings or dividends could trigger a price-to-earnings de-rating given their full trading multiples," analyst Richard E. Wiles says. MS thinks investor expectations are optimistic for CBA and Westpac, but quite cautious for NAB. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2300 GMT - Ord Minnett looks back to assess how Duratec could benefit from its latest acquisition. Duratec has agreed to buy EIG Australia for A$9 million in a cash-and-stock deal. Analyst John Lawlor says the transaction is small, but of strategic significance given EIG's expertise in electrical infrastructure. That opens up opportunities for Duratec in the defence and mining and industrial sectors. Ord Minnett draws parallels with Duratec's acquisition of WPF in October 2022. "Under Duratec ownership WPF has rapidly expanded revenues, achieved 30% gross margins and currently has an 'exceptionally positive' outlook," the bank says. Ord Minnett retains an accumulate call on Duratec and lifts its price target by 13% to A$1.80/share. Duratec ended last week at A$1.485. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2227 GMT - Ord Minnett isn't ready to turn bullish on Northern Star Resources, despite a 32% fall in the gold miner's share price since June 13. Northern Star recently rattled investors with weaker FY 2026 cost and capex guidance, while U.S. deals with major trading partners have bolstered risk-on sentiment and led some investors to rotate out of gold equities. "We now see an improved valuation opportunity, but continue to balance this against elevate risks in the near-term (e.g. approvals, expansion) and low free cash flow in FY 2026," analyst Paul Kaner says. Ord Minnett forecasts a 0.2% free cash flow yield in the current fiscal year. It retains a hold call on Northern Star, which ended last week at A$15.30. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2215 GMT - The outlook for Australian supermarkets appears challenging. That's according to Jefferies, which cites price cutting and acute declines in tobacco sales as headwinds to their sales growth. It also sees shoppers buying more at stores such as Bunnings, Amazon, and Chemist Warehouse. "The market is becoming more competitive as major chains invest in price to restore perception and attempt to close the price gap to non-traditional competitors who generally operate Everyday Low Price models," says analyst Michael Simotas. Cost inflation remains elevated, while bricks-and-mortar stores are also being challenged by online sales. Jefferies has hold calls on both Woolworths and Coles.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2208 GMT - Jefferies shrugs off near-term headwinds for Treasury Wine Estates. Those risks include a distributor change to Breakthru Beverages in California, inventory levels in China and the upcoming change in CEO. "However, Treasury Wine is trading near asset value and circa 13x price-to-earnings, suggesting a very weak scenario is priced without allowing for substantial value of the Penfolds brand," analyst Michael Simotas says. Also, the stock could gain if Treasury Wine considers exiting the U.S., suggests Jefferies. It retains a buy call and A$10.00/share price target on Treasury Wine, which ended Friday at A$7.53.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires