Yeah @Slomo - there was a comment towards the end of the podcast comments when I last checked that suggested Trav was being too negative again, but he was after all presenting the bear case alongside the bull case from Moz and I thought they gave Moz as much airtime as he needed or wanted to present a balanced bull case. I.e. Trav let Moz do most of the talking.

I think it was fairly balanced, but my own thoughts remain that a fair few things need to go right for MinRes to get through this without a very dilutive CR and/or some major asset sales. Not saying there isn't money to be made in MinRes - there certainly has been since their $15 SP level in April - they are now more than double that level, so anybody brave enough to have bought them below $20 has to be happy with the $33+ SP today - my own personal concern is that if just a few (like 2 or 3) of the risks that MIN are facing go badly for them from here - like iron ore or lithium prices drop, more accidents or a fatality on the haul road resulting in government investigations which would likely mean shutting the road down completely for a period, issues getting the transhippers in and out because they have secondary priority at Ashburton with that channel out to deep water, losing any major mining services contracts, the market turning negative on them again because they think they're cum-CR again, the outlook for iron ore becomes worse perhaps due to a better understanding of the extra supply that will be added to the market over the next 10 years (much of it at higher grades than what MIN produces) which while it may not affect the iron ore price too much in the immediate term may cause punters to decide to give iron ore a miss and invest elsewhere, the ASIC investigation leading to Chris Ellison being stripped of his right to lead or be on the Board of any listed companies for a period of time, further substantially negative news coming out about current or past behaviour that doesn't pass the "pub test", MinRes' costs being substantially higher than their own guidance due to issues with the conversion to autonomous road trains and/or the need to continue to use third party transport solutions to help get their ore to port in the quantities that they need to move it, etc. - then I can see a pathway to MIN's SP returning to $15 and going even lower, so the risks are just too many and too high for mine.

No doubt, they're going higher if they can scrape through without selling assets at firesale prices and without a capital raise, but if not there's likely substantial downside, so not one for me, and there's also the major issue (for me) that I can't see myself ever having faith and trust in their management again, to operate in the best interests of their shareholders rather in their own best interests, so even if I could see clear upside that dwarfed the downside, I still wouldn't invest in them now.

But good luck to all holders. It was a good company for decades, providing nice TSRs, and it would be great if they can get back to that level of performance and balance sheet strength once again.

I'm still holding and underwater, and have a fairly neutral view. Would have been nice to develop the cojones to add in the teens, but oh well.

Some good points and well made @Bear77.

I think you and Trav on MoM are well aligned in your thinking, probably becuase you have some similarities in your investing strategy / thinking.

Agree the downside is significant given the combination of debt load and dependency on commodity prices.

When you add governance and operational issues this goes straight into the too hard basket for most and onto the shorting candidates list for others.

I try to think of risk in terms of liklihood and impact, something like the below.

Given where MIN is on the cost curve for Fe and Li and the diversification they have from both exposures, I don't see commodity prices as a source of near term concern.

Operational issues make everyone nervous and when it's such a critical point of failure as the haul road, the impact from this is massive (depending on the severity of the problem). I'm backing them to get this right based on their operational track record and their understanding of just how critical this piece is to the whole puzzle.

Governance issues are a red line for a lot of investors and not a good look here to say the least... From what I can see they are slowly stumbling towards a workable mix of baby and bathwater staying in the tub over the next 12+ months critical operating period.

So the biggest issue for me is the debt and that's where my focus is, hence my last post. I'll keep watching this one closely for a refinancing announcement or alternative over the next 12 or so months. That could change the outlook and narrative very quickly.

I think it was Morgan Housel who said most disagreement in markets is just people with different strategies talking over each other, or something like that.

It takes both side to make a market and they meet somewhere near the prevailing price at any given time.

FWIW, I agree there are a number of risks with MIN getting through unscathed and the combination of these is likely what's got the price moving so far south so quickly.

They key factors that I track seem to be turning in the right direction for them at the moment but wouldn't take a lot for a direction change in any of them.

Always good to get a bear case and a bear's take on an investment thesis. Keep them coming!

Fair enough @Slomo - I've made money myself in similar scenarios where the majority of the market was bearish on a company and I thought the pessimism was not entirely warranted and my view at the time was that the chances of me losing money were not as great as the chances of me making money, in that particular company at that time, but that meant that on at least one key point I was taking a different view to the majority of the market. And that usually came down, in my case, to backing management to navigate through or over the obstacles they faced at that time, similarly to how they had done in the past - so based on their track record.

I can understand you taking a similar view here on MinRes because they have defied the critics on many occasions throughout their history as a listed company, and even prior to that, and it would be a huge stretch to say that Ellison is either dumb or deluded. He is neither of those things; His track record suggests that when it comes to sectors like energy, mining and mining services in Australia, he has a very good head on his shoulders and can not only see opportunities where others don't, but also has had the skills and tenacity to pull off major wins, and not just against smaller companies that were in trouble at the time, but also against global giants like Albemarle, where as I read it CE & MinRes have had the better end of the deal EVERY time that they have made a deal or re-cut a deal with Albemarle. So, as I said, fair call. You know what to look out for; what will bust your investment thesis, so all good, and the best of luck with it.

IF I could trust Chris and his Board now, and IF I was 20 years younger with a much higher risk tolerance, I might be doing the same as you, but that's not where I am now.

Happy to bounce bull and bear theses off people here any time, which reminds me, please, if any of you can pull some holes in my investment theses for companies I am bullish on and am invested in, please go hard, I probably need the reality check! Or at least an alternative viewpoint.

@Slomo this came up on my youtube feed, so i sat through the 1.5 hours, dont ask me why. i looked up one guy seems to have stayed a year at each place he worked at, yeah whatever. still same conclusion for me needs road to hold the tonnes and Fe price to hold the level. we shall see, pivotal time coming up, marginal news is +