Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 06 Aug 2025 15:00:05
Jimmy
Added 4 months ago

0439 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's restructuring costs for its BankWest subsidiary are viewed by its bears at Morgan Stanley as business-as-usual items. Analysts Richard E. Wiles and Sally Hong point out that Commonwealth has owned BankWest for more than 15 years, so costs related to its franchise and operating model shouldn't be seen as out of the ordinary. The A$89 million in restructuring costs are unlikely to have a material impact on investors' view of the bank, the MS analysts add. MS keeps an underweight recommendation and A$129.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$177.94. ([email protected])

0432 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's bears at UBS acknowledge that the lender could continue to beat EPS expectations. UBS analysts tell clients in a note that there is potential for market forecasts to be revised upwards due to efficiency gains, including from AI, lower-than-expected credit costs, and portfolio changes. Despite having a sell rating on the stock, the UBS team's fiscal 2026 EPS forecast is about 4.0% higher than consensus. Even so, they remind readers of their view that 90% of the Commonwealth Bank's share-price appreciation over the past two years has been driven by multiple expansion. The stock is priced for more than perfection, they warn. UBS keeps a A$120.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$177.87. ([email protected])

0408 GMT - Morgans analyst Nick Harris is waiting on evidence that TPG Telecom's value proposition is gaining traction with Australian consumers before becoming more positive on the stock. Maintaining a hold rating, Harris tells clients that slimmed-down TPG will keep growing profits and improving capital returns amid industry-wide rational pricing. He thinks that TPG's value brand should resonate strongly and that growth in mobile subscriber numbers could generate significant value, but is looking for clear signs of this occurring meaningfully. Morgans keeps a A$5.40 target price on the stock, which is down 1.6% at A$5.41. ([email protected])

0321 GMT - TPG Telecom shares would likely fall if the Australian mobile-network operator's reinvestment plan isn't fully taken up by shareholders, Jarden analysts warn in a note to clients. They see downside risks to the plan, under which TPG wants to offer up to A$688 million in new discounted shares in order to pay down more debt and increase stock liquidity. Uncertainty over the proposed timing and record date will probably weigh on the stock, they say. They anticipate 186 million new shares priced at a 5% discount. Jarden lowers its recommendation to neutral from overweight. Target price falls by 3.6% to A$5.30. Shares are down 1.8% at A$5.40. ([email protected])

0043 GMT - Credit Corp's FY 2025 result assuages investor concerns around operating performance in the U.S. and the near-term growth outlook, Canaccord Genuity says. "The path forward looks clearer, in our view, with higher levels of capital investment and improved productivity in the U.S. driving what should be a strong earnings trajectory over the coming three years," analyst Allan Franklin says. Credit Corp starts FY 2026 with a higher level of secured U.S. volumes than what was executed in FY 2025. It also has strong U.S. productivity metrics, a 6% higher opening loan book than this time last year, and ample scope to grow its lending products, Canaccord says. It retains a buy call on Credit Corp, and raises its price target by 4.9% to A$21.60/share. Credit Corp is up 0.9% at A$17.88. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0011 GMT - Jarden takes a rosier view of Pinnacle Investment Management's earnings outlook, despite the asset manager's 4% miss to consensus forecasts for its FY 2025 net profit. Jarden upgrades its FY 2026 EPS forecast by 6.2%. It also lifts estimates for EPS in FY 2027 and FY 2028 each by 7.5%. The upgrades are driven by "tempering group revenue by 3-6% and lowering group expenses by 6% in FY 2026-2028, reflecting the FY 2025 result versus expectations," analyst Christian Waked says. It also forecasts total funds under management and net flows rising across the next three years, given FUM beat expectations in FY 2025 and institutional inflows have been strong. Jarden has an overweight call on Pinnacle. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0007 GMT - Telix Pharmaceuticals' restatement of prior results as part of its shift to reporting in U.S. dollars had a sting in its tail for investors. Jarden says there was a surprise earnings downgrade in the announcement. Telix's management quantified 1H opex costs as being 36% of revenue, or US$140.4 million. That was US$40 million above consensus expectations. Telix's share price fell more than 8% on Tuesday in response. "The market appears to have overreacted to this downgrade, which is perhaps not that surprising given the uncertainty around competitive pressures and pass through payment status on pricing," says analyst Steve Wheen. Jarden retains a buy call on Telix, but cuts its price target by 5.3% to A$27.61/share. Telix is up 2.2% at A$18.94. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0000 GMT - Lotteries group Jumbo Interactive's annual result on Aug. 26 isn't likely to be a winner for investors, suggests Jarden. "We anticipate a relatively soft result, as normalized jackpot activity and structural headwinds weigh on short term performance," analyst Rohan Gallagher says. Jarden forecasts Lottery Retailing total transaction value of A$460 million in FY 2025, representing a 15% decline on the previous year when jackpot activity was elevated. Still, Jarden expects Jumbo can pay at the upper end of its FY 2025 dividend range of 65%-85% of net profit, noting its net cash position is strong. Jarden has a buy call on Jumbo and A$13.40/share price target. Jumbo ended Tuesday at A$10.27. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2353 GMT - One reason why Morgan Stanley is bullish about appliance maker Breville is that it's still in the early stages of expanding around the world. MS estimates the global revenue opportunity for Breville is around A$10 billion. Currently, Breville's market penetration rate is only 17% at a time when coffee consumption is on the rise and global GDP is increasing. To illustrate this point, analyst Chenny Wang points to rival De'Longhi, which is on track for some A$4 billion of global revenue in coffee alone and is still growing in the high-single-digit to low-teens percent. Another rival, Nespresso, is also growing strongly. MS views Breville's annual result on August 20 as a potential stock catalyst. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2319 GMT - Lindian Resources' strategic partnership with Iluka Resources validates its Kangankunde project, which has long appeared to be a standout among hard-rock rare earths developments, says Euroz Hartleys. Kangankunde contains a high-grade resource and low radionuclide content. The project is expected to be light on capex with low operating costs, the broker says. "LIN has seen high management and board turnover over the last [circa] 12 months, which has since stabilized following multiple experienced executive appointments," says the broker. "The ILU partnership should serve as a major catalyst in this context." Euroz Hartleys has a speculative buy rating on Lindian. It places its A$0.30/share target price under review. Lindian last traded at A$0.094. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2219 GMT - TPG Telecom's aggressive discounting of its prepaid mobile plans could be storing up problems for future, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel suggests. He points out that average revenue per user for prepaid consumers is less than half that for postpaid, indicating that they are particularly value conscious. Samuel writes in a note that, while prepaid growth has been strong, this means that TPG could experience elevated levels of churn later on as discounts end or other providers return to discount. Jefferies cuts its target price on the stock 3.5%, to A$5.50, and maintains a "hold" rating. Shares are at A$5.50 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

8