Forum Topics VRL VRL Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 4 months ago

Verity Resources (VRL.ASX) is a diversified, early-stage mineral exploration company with a portfolio of gold projects in Western Australia and critical minerals projects (REEs, lithium, and copper) in Brazil and Botswana.

Coverage initiated with a Speculative Buy and massive price target of $0.42

Link to latest research note: High-margin gold, funded growth, and significant cash flows

As always DYOR.

Held in SM and IRL.

0c769f1181dd18daf9caeacad152fffa7e989c.png

tomsmithidg
Added 4 months ago

@Bear77 , I eagerly await your input on this one.

4

Bear77
Added 4 months ago

Thanks for the mention @tomsmithidg and for bringing up VRL @Batman - not a company I've done any work on, and that's pretty much still the case - I've just skimmed through the Corporate Connect Research Report that @Batman linked to, and what strikes me immediately is their proximity to Genesis' Laverton Mill - previously know as the Mt Morgans Mill:

903f07fade1ffad7be6fdca3f1925a659b1699.jpeg

Source: https://www.verityresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/VRL-Final-300725_pdf.pdf

That research report is supposed to be accurate as at 28th July 2025, i.e. two weeks ago, however all of those Focus Minerals (FML) tenements shown in Orange now belong to Genesis (GMD) as FML sold those to GMD and they (FML) are now focused on their Coolgardie gold assets after divesting their Laverton assets. See here: Completion of the Laverton Gold Project Sale.PDF [FML, 04-June-2025] and here: Completion-of-Acquisition-of-Laverton-Gold-Project.PDF [GMD, -4-June-2025] and here: 26-May-2025: Acquisition of Laverton Gold Project.PDF [GMD, 92 pages], which included the following map showing what GMD (Genesis) were buying from FML (Focus):

d70ede788e6bf2a7455e34e4c8a29b27ba66a1.jpeg


So those light blue tenements on the right (above) have all been acquired by Genesis who already owned all of the dark blue tenements (above).

So on the map below, the yellow AND the orange tenements all belong to Genesis, and if the Verity Resources tenements (shown in the light blue below) actually have a decent amount of gold in them, they are a walk-up start to be acquired by Ral Finlayson's Genesis Minerals (GMD) at some point.

903f07fade1ffad7be6fdca3f1925a659b1699.jpeg


And it's the amount of gold and the grades that are the issue, in my opinion. Here's the one drilling cross-section diagram from the report (link above):

9b3c4e3e2e4766effff976dcfb4b8e30ec4a81.jpeg

Recent results have been underwhelming with grades from 1.21 g/t up to 3.22 g/t, although it looks like they've hit some much higher grades previously - in that purple patch above. And around 100m below surface, so not too deep.

I think that the natural owners of these tenements are GMD (Genesis Minerals), however Raleigh can play it in at least two ways, the first being to try to acquire the whole company now while their market cap is still low, to get those tenements, and then sell off the non-gold assets that Verity own, being the portfolio of rare earth, lithium and gallium projects in Brazil as well as the nickel-copper-PGE resource in Botswana, or if Verity would be prepared to sell off the WA gold tenements by themselves (I doubt it), GMD could just buy those rather than the whole company, OR Ral @ GMD could wait for Verity to spend all of the money on exploration and resource definition drilling and assays and then make a move if and when there is a decent proven gold resource there.

Either way, I reckon there's some M&A in Verity's future. And how soon may depend on how much gold they find and how high the grades are. We already know that Ral is talking about expanding their Laverton mill, and the Focus assets that GMD recently acquired came with a second mill that is currently on C&M but could be fired back up if required, so Genesis actually own two gold mills at Laverton, one that is operating already, and one that has been mothballed by the previous owners (FML).

To be honest, if I was Ral, I'd just buy all of VRL PDQ before their m/cap rises - their total market cap today is still under $7 Million, so they're a true nanocap explorer that had less than $1 million dollars at June 30th. Their 5B said they had just $899 K in the bank with no unused finance facilities available at June 30th and based on their cash burn in the June quarter of $428 K, they only have 6 months worth of cash left before the lights go out, so they are cum-Capital-Raise for sure.

I'd probably roll the dice with around $10K of speculative cash on Verity on the potential upside of both drilling results and M&A IF they didn't have those overseas REE, lithium, gallium, nickel, copper and PGE assets - which muddies the waters quite a lot in my view. I prefer pure gold plays, or gold/copper plays, not all that other crap.

I much prefer these nanocap explorers to be focused on just one area in a single country and for that country to be Australia, preferably Western Australia where most of the gold is.

And I would ALSO like for them to be spending significant amounts on exploration, not a total of $221 K in three months (around $74K/month), which is what Verity spent on "exploration and evaluation" in the June quarter - see below - while they spent the same amount on "admin and corporate costs" plus another $19 K on staff costs, so more than half of their total $428K cash burn for the quarter was on Admin and Staff; you aren't going to prove up a deposit rapidly if you're only spending $74 K per month on drilling, assays and evaluation.

373db7391f67b5fd8f1964875dedfd2cfee0f9.jpeg

The research report suggests that a reason to buy Verity is that there is: A strong pipeline of near-term catalysts including assay results, resource upgrades and potential new discoveries.  (bottom of page 1) - however I'm not convinced the pipeline is really that strong when you look at their actual expenditure on exploration and evaluation - just $221,000 in the 3 months to June 30th, with only $899,000 (less than $1 million) left in the bank at June 30.

Compare that with Gorilla Gold's 5B (first page):

572ec744f6434b4b782a588f654d2242213b61.jpeg

I'm holding GG8 shares, as I've already disclosed here, and that $3m spent on additional tenements (being the remaining 49% of the Comet Vale Project so they now own 100% of Comet Vale) and the $7.75 million spent on exploration and evaluation (in the June Qtr) is the reason why, alongside the fact that they're getting great bang for those bucks by hitting great grades of gold from all that drilling.

Compared to Verity's $428K cash burn for the quarter, GG8 spent more than 20 x what Verity did in the June quarter (GG8 spent over $10 million), but GG8 spent the vast majority of it on exactly what you want explorers to spend money on - exploring! And GG8 finished the quarter with a little over $25 million, so they'll also need to raise more money in the next 6 months, but I daresay they'll find it easier to raise money at a lower discount than Verity will because GG8 are using their money to find plenty of new gold at a much faster rate than Verity are. It's a lot easier to raise fresh money if you have a track record of using money well to create value.

So there's explorers and there's explorers, and not all explorers are the same. Despite how good their ground is, the better explorers are well capitalised and busy creating value by finding substantial amounts of new gold, and you do that by spending money on drilling. Drill baby, Drill!

You can be smart about it, sure, by choosing where to drill using AI and strategy and whatever, but at the end of the day you don't get far if you don't spend money, and some companies are hamstrung by not having the money to spend in the first place, and Verity looks to me like one of those undercapitalised wanna-be explorers who can't do much coz they don't have much to do it with.

I could be wrong however there's plenty of fish in this particular pond and I don't need to chase a tadpole like Verity Resources (formerly Si6 Metals Limited, ASX:SI6).

Couple of other things about Verity:

  1. They changed their name at the end of November 2024 from Si6 Metals to Verity Resources and did a 1 for 20 share consolidation, and they're still trading at between 2 cents and 3 cents per share AFTER that share consolidation.
  2. They have a small 3 person Board - they are after all a $7 million nanocap company - and only one of those directors - who is also the company secretary - has a decent shareholding, around 19.77% of the company according to Commsec, and about 18.97% of the company according to his last change of director's interests lodgement - there's an excerpt of that reproduced below.
  3. There are 3 Substantial Shareholders (Subs) listed, and they're all controlled by Patrick Volpe, the company secretary and a NED (non-executive director).

48b00cee7f0b59a01b5518271aa43b6e509492.jpeg

Source: Commsec.

8fc66dfe1b168e2a20a168e3c74e75766d1035.png

Source: Appendix-3Y---PVolpe.PDF

da4c814a4eb3890ae349e2cf2fb10688d0b44c.jpeg

Source: Commsec.

Their Chairman, Paul Dickson, holds 2,250,000 VRL shares, currently worth just $54 K, less than his annual salary. The other NED owns nuffin', nada, zilch, bugger-all, zip, diddly-squat, nix, nought, a big fat doughnut.

So we have Patty Volpe with almost 20% of the company and that's about it for skin in the game. But it's only a $7m company with less than $900K in the bank and they're only spending about $70 K each month on exploration and evaluation, so I can't say I blame Elvis for not buying any shares, there's not much to get excited about.

That's all I got from an hour's shallow digging, and I still feel I know nothing much about the company, but that's likely because I don't see enough there to prompt me to dig further. They might get taken over by GMD - probably will one day, that would make sense from a regional tenement consolidation perspective, but how many capital raises happen between now and then I do not know.

14

Batman
Added 3 months ago

Fantastic initial analysts.

The historical hits are encouraging & the newly funded company can now do expansion drilling & additional exploration along stike & others.

I guess this is the opportunity as investors at a 6m cap

Not to mention the ultra high grade Brzaillian REE exposure at a time when the US Government is hunting ex-china feed.

Im hard pressed to find another asx junior with so much potential, that is cashed up & ready to go.

6

Bear77
Added 3 months ago

I love your enthusiasm @Batman but VRL did manage to only raise $3.0 million in this recent 2.4 cps equity raising that I warned you was coming, so I guess that qualifies as "cashed up" for a $7m nanocap explorer and wanna-be-project-developer, but they need to hit some good grades of gold with this lot of drilling because $3m won't get them far when they spent more on Admin and Staff costs in their last quarter than they did on drilling, exploration and evaluation. Based on that, and the fact that they were almost broke at the end of their last quarter, perhaps between $1m and $1.5m of that $3m gets spent on drilling, assays and evaluation.

They said "Directors subscribed for $250,000, subject to shareholder approval" and that's Directors with an "s", so plural, so I guess that's their Chairman Paul Dixon and their company secretary and major shareholder Patrick Volpe, but not their third director (Elvis Mosweu) because if Elvis had also applied (to take him up from zero shares held at last report) they would have said "All Directors subscribed..." and they didn't say "All".

"Funds raised will be used to accelerate the 154koz Au Monument Gold Project resource upgrade and expansion drilling programs of approximately 6,500m, with phase one drilling awaiting lab results and phase two drilling set to commence."

So they might get some good gold hits and people might get excited and the share price might rise, and that might mean they can raise the next $3m (or perhaps even $4m or $5m) at a slightly higher share price, but when you say "I'm hard pressed to find another asx junior with so much potential, that is cashed up & ready to go." ...it occurs to me that perhaps you haven't looked around the gold sector very much, because I see a lot of them, including HRZ & GG8 (which I hold). Both with a lot more cash and doing a lot more drilling, assays and evaluation than VRL are doing.

I won't coment on the "Ultra High Grade Brazillian REE" potential - other than to say most rare earth projects end in tears unfortunately and that's for many reasons, including how difficult and expensive it is to build cracking plants that can viably extract the individual REEs out of the ore in a usable form. Outside of China, how many ASX-listed REE companies have progressed through to production and actually made any money for their shareholders? I can only think of one - Lynas. And that was a very rocky road for their shareholders - I was one of them for a while. REE/REO companies have been a graveyard for investor capital for many years, and only the ones with government backing are likely to make it these days. And they'll need more than that too, like deep industry expertise, but being bankrolled is a good start.

Good luck with VRL @Batman. I hope they do go to the moon for you. But they're still not for me. Despite just raising $3m, they are still way too undercapitalised for my liking.

As I said last time, they might get taken out by a larger company but otherwise it's likely to be slow progress with the sort of money they're spending each quarter on drilling, and this latest capital raise is not big enough to allow them to materially increase that low quarterly exploration spend, in my opinion.

11