0325 GMT - The future of South32's Mozal aluminum smelter is increasingly in doubt, although a suspension is the "worst case scenario," according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. RBC expected Mozal production would be maintained around 350,000 metric tons in FY 2026 under a new, higher-cost electricity supply agreement. Peker estimated a 15%-20% energy cost increase. South32's revised production guidance of 240,000 tons implies a 4%-5% drop in FY 2026 Ebitda, Peker says. RBC's valuation on South32 drops by roughly 1%. "Given that Mozal is already a higher-cost operation, the worst case scenario would be for the smelter to be shut-down and alumina is sold into the spot market," he says. RBC has an outperform rating and A$3.50 target on South32. The stock is down by 4.7% at A$2.915. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0127 GMT - While Commonwealth Bank's continued investment should protect the lender's tech advantage over its peers, the results might not be seen for many years, Macquarie analysts warn. They say that Commonwealth is able to focus on developing its AI capabilities at a time that its major rivals are distracted by legacy issues. However, the timeline is uncertain and there is a risk of capitalized-software write-offs, they say. The Macquarie analysts tell clients in a note that Commonwealth's annual result was broadly in line with expectations, but that valuations need to return to more realistic levels. Macquarie keeps an underperform rating and A$105.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.6% at A$168.10. ([email protected])

0104 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's ability to re-price deposits could be constrained by competition from rival institutions, Citi analyst Thomas Strong warns. He tells clients in a note that Australia's largest bank will feel the impact of lower interest rates more acutely in its 2026 fiscal year. Strong sees Commonwealth's balance-sheet growth as the highlight of its fiscal 2025 result, but doesn't see how the lender can generate profit growth amid consistent cost pressures and reinvestment. He thinks that core net profit will be flat in fiscal 2026. Citi raises its target price by 10% to A$110.00 and keeps a sell rating on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$167.93. ([email protected])

0054 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Citi says any redundancies planned by the logistics-software provider could indicate that its revenue outlook is weaker than expected. Australian newspapers have suggested that WiseTech could cut staff numbers. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that this could represent upside risk to Ebitda margins or signal softer revenue expectations. He points out that headcount growth appears to have slowed over the June half and into the company's new fiscal year, which began July 1. Ahmed raises his fiscal 2026 forecasts to reflect WiseTech's completed acquisition of e2open. Citi raises its target price by 5.2% to A$134.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$114.38. ([email protected])

0032 GMT - Origin Energy's wide range of profit outcomes for its Energy Markets business in the new fiscal year doesn't bother Jefferies. Origin has forecast underlying Ebitda from Energy Markets of A$1.40 billion-A$1.70 billion in FY 2025. At the midpoint, that represents 10% growth on the A$1.404 billion achieved in FY 2025. Analyst Amit Kanwatia says Origin's guidance is slightly ahead of consensus hopes. Also, he says the broad forecast band "should be looked at in the context of strong delivery in FY 2025 toward the top of the guidance range." Jefferies has a buy call on Origin, which is up 6.4% at A$12.60.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0022 GMT - Origin Energy's guidance for its Energy Markets business in FY 2026 was--and yet wasn't--in line with Jarden's expectations. Origin forecast underlying Ebitda from Energy Markets of A$1.40 billion-A$1.70 billion. That was broadly in line with Jarden's A$1.602 billion forecast. Still, analyst Nik Burns says "Origin calling out broadly flat electricity gross profit outlook is somewhat of a surprise given rising wholesale prices versus a backdrop of flat Eraring coal costs." Eraring is Origin's big coal-fired power plant in Australia's New South Wales state. Origin is up 6.5% at A$12.61 today. Jarden thinks investors may be relieved by Origin's outlook, given rival AGL Energy disappointed the market with its guidance yesterday.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0007 GMT - Morgans switches views on Santos as a consortium led by Adnoc unit XRG edges closer to a takeover. Morgans was initially concerned by the hurdles and timeline to a successful deal. Analyst Adrian Prendergast says his confidence on both factors has slowly improved as the process has progressed. "Now two months into the due diligence and formal negotiation process, it is clear to us that the Adnoc consortium remains just as motivated (if not more) to get the deal done," Morgans says. It also thinks there's a greater chance of Australia's treasurer and foreign investment watchdog approving a deal. That's because Adnoc can easily fund investments that improve domestic gas supply. Morgans upgrades Santos to accumulate, from trim. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2357 GMT - Macquarie is bullish about Arena REIT's change at the top. Arena REIT says CEO Rob de Vos will step down at the conclusion of its annual shareholder meeting in November. He will be replaced by Chief Investment Officer Justin Bailey. "We expect a continuation of Arena REIT's strong strategy execution and financial discipline that has driven outperformance of A-Reit peers over the last 6.5 years," Macquarie says. The bank retains an outperform call on Arena REIT, attracted by its forward distribution yield of 5.2%. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2353 GMT - AGL Energy's dividend is likely to remain at the low end of its policy range for the foreseeable future, reckons Macquarie. AGL declared a total dividend of A$0.48/share for FY 2025, representing a payout of 50% of annual underlying net profit, just inside its target range of 50%-75%. This was unsurprising to Macquarie given the pressure placed on AGL's balance sheet from investment in batteries. "We expect this theme will continue in FY 2026 and most likely in FY 2027," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on AGL's stock.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2350 GMT - Temple & Webster's bull at RBC Capital Markets likes the growth and margin expansion in the online furniture retailer's fiscal 2025 results. Analyst Wei-Weng Chen tells clients in a note that the Australian company's adjusted Ebitda was 11% stronger than he had forecast, even though revenue fell 1% short of his expectation. This was driven by a reduction in fixed costs that generated strong growth in operating leverage, he says. The revenue miss is seen as a timing issue and doesn't spark any concerns, especially with sales up by what Chen says is a "very strong" 28% so far in fiscal 2026. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and A$25.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$26.07 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2343 GMT - Temple & Webster's start to its new fiscal year looks strong to its bull at Citi, given the pace of its year-earlier sales growth. Analyst Sam Teeger tells clients in a note that the online furniture retailer's 28% sales growth since July 1 is a good result, given that sales grew 26% over the same period in 2024. He also likes the Australian company's 3.5% Ebitda margin guidance for fiscal 2026. He points out that it represents a material improvement from the 1%-3% guidance given a year ago, and boosts confidence that the company could reach its longer-term 15% target. Citi has a buy rating and A$27.26 target price on the stock, which is at A$26.07 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires