PharmX Technologies Limited

ASX:PHX

PharmX Technologies Limited

ASX:PHX
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$0.145 (0%)
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#83
Rank
7
Held by
12
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Reports (2) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics PHX PHX ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:
Stumpy
Added 4 months ago

Just putting my thoughts together on PHX ahead of the FY25 results today, since a bit has happened since their H1 report.

The H1 FY25 numbers were strong. Revenue was up 17%, but the real kicker was the 235% spike in Marketplace orders and 18% increase in Gateway invoice value. Shows the platform is becoming more central to pharmacies and suppliers.

Since that H1 report, they’ve launched two major pieces of tech: the Supplier Portal in April and the Pharmacy Portal in June. They've already got 99% of Aussie pharmacies connected to their Gateway, and these new portals are all about making that connection stickier and driving more trading volume. The Supplier Portal, in particular, dramatically cuts the onboarding time for new suppliers, which should fuel future growth.

The FY25 results, which I see are due out today will hopefully shed some light on the impact of the new portals. The company noted back in June that the financial impacts weren’t yet quantifiable, so it’s all about the numbers in this report.

1) We need to see if that strong H1 growth has carried through to the full year.

  * The most important thing to watch for is any commentary on the early uptake of the new portals. Are more pharmacies and suppliers actively using them for transactions? This is what will really drive the share price.

2) Price Action and Outlook: The market has already priced in a lot of optimism. The share price has jumped from ~$0.075 to ~$0.11 since the first portal announcement in April. A lot of the neutral case value seems to be reflected in the current price. To push into a bull-case range (say, 15c+), the company will need to deliver on two things in this report: sustained top-line growth and hard numbers showing strong adoption of the new portals.
Stumpy
Added 4 months ago

Just finished watching the FY25 webinar. A mixed bag which seems to have spooked the market into an 8% fall in share price.

Positives:

  • Marketplace revenue up 193% (though from a relatively small base)
  • Supplier onboarding process has sped up significantly
  • Underlying sales revenue growth at 13% in a tricky retail environment subject to COL pressures


Cons:

  • Significant increase in employee benefits costs $2.53M - > $3.51M (they mentioned they weren’t expecting this to grow significantly moving forward)
  • Slowdown in revenue growth rate (which they attributed to less active onboarding of new customers while they were transitioning to the unified platform)


Neutral:

  • Recent technology and platform investments yet to fully play out


The overall story of the webinar seemed to be one of, “We are building and investing for the future, have some faith in us”, along with the obligatory mention of AI in improving efficiencies which is a popular theme for many companies in the tech space. The main concern I have is the costs and effort it seems they are requiring to maintain growth in a market where they already hold a 99% market share.

With all this taken into account, I have arrived at a conservative valuation of 7-8c per share, with 9-10c and higher requiring them to absolutely nail their revenue growth objectives while keeping costs (especially wages) under control. Not enough margin of safety for me right now, but one I’ll keep an eye on.

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