Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 20 Aug 2025 14:59:59
Jimmy
Added 4 months ago

0304 GMT - The timing of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's reset to goodwill baffles Jefferies. Bendigo signaled a A$539.5 million goodwill impairment would drag on its 2H profit, citing heightened global uncertainty. Analyst Andrew Lyons notes goodwill in the Consumer Cash Generating Unit largely relates to Bendigo's 2007 acquisition of Adelaide Bank. Calculating the carrying value of goodwill "is ultimately a function of discount rates and forecast cash flows, with the latter a function of the macro environment and the CGU's performance therein," Jefferies says. Yet the average 10-year Australian government bond yield in 2007 was above 6%, versus 4.3% today. And current global uncertainty appears to pale in comparison to the GFC, the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Covid-19, which have all occurred since 2007, Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0134 GMT - Pipeline operator APA forecast another year of dividend growth, but UBS sees headwinds to this approach in future. APA expects a distribution of A$0.58/share in FY 2026, up from A$0.57. Analyst Tom Allen notes APA has headroom on a key balance-sheet metric. Funds from operations-to-net debt was 10.4% at end-June, clear of the 9.5% hurdle rate used by ratings companies. Still, UBS says leverage remains high, with its weighted average cost of debt rising 30 basis points in FY 2025. It notes APA's existing projects awaiting development require capex of A$2.1 billion, before accounting for any moves to buy assets. "The medium term challenge of funding a significant growth pipeline, while providing a progressive dividend and deleveraging materially remains challenging," UBS says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0132 GMT - It could be some time before investor interest in plumbing fittings supplier Reliance Worldwide picks up, UBS says. Reliance Worldwide's 1H revenue guidance missed analysts' estimates, driven by pressures on U.S. repair and remodel activity and homebuilding. Analyst Nathan Reilly says the market expected Americas revenue in 1H to be flat on year, but Reliance Worldwide guided to a mid-single digit percent decline. UBS cuts its FY 2026 EPS forecast by 9% and retains a neutral call on the stock. "We expect investor interest in the stock to be tempered until there is greater clarity on both the rates cycle and end-market demand picture," UBS says. It says volumes and confidence across the U.S. consumer and housing sectors appear to have deteriorated in recent quarters.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0127 GMT - Seek's bull at Citi raises earnings forecasts on stronger-than-expected revenue growth and sees potential for further upside. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that the Australian job advertiser's guidance for 10% fiscal 2026 yield growth looks conservative, given that it assumes no progress in advanced-tier penetration and limited benefit from further price increases. He forecasts 12% yield growth in fiscal 2026 and 10% in fiscal 2027. Illustrative leverage scenarios provided by Seek also hint that earnings margins could beat Ahmed's medium-term forecasts. Citi raises the stock's target price by 11% to A$31.65 and maintains a buy rating. Shares are up 3.6% at A$28.72. ([email protected])

0114 GMT - Australian job advertiser Seek looks well-positioned to meet the midpoint of what its bull at Macquarie says is conservative profit guidance. A note from one of the investment bank's analysts tells clients in a note that Seek has a solid foundation to hit A$205 million in fiscal 2026 adjusted net profit. The Macquarie analyst is looking for A$212.4 million, which is closer to the top end of the A$190 million-A$220 million guidance range. They see support for ad yield from good uptake of Seek's new tier products, with its completed tech overhaul helping keep the pace of cost growth below that of revenue growth. Macquarie raises its target price 20% to A$32.50 and keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is up 3.2% at A$28.61. ([email protected])

0110 GMT - Stockland's decision to change up its dividend policy gets a tick from Citi. Stockland says it will target a payout of 60% to 80% of funds from operations from FY 2026. That compares to a prior payout ratio of 75-85%. Management made the decision "as they are reinvesting to drive further earnings growth, which we see as positive," analyst Suraj Nebhani says. Stockland's forecast dividend for FY 2026 is 25.2 Australian cents/security, unchanged on year. "Other positive developments include an exclusive arrangement with EdgeConneX to establish a partnership to develop, own and operate a data center portfolio," Citi says. It retains a buy call on Stockland, which is up 7.5% at A$6.15 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0030 GMT - BHP's FY 2025 profit result was certainly solid, with a surprisingly strong payout, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. However, he's not sure the dividend surprise can be repeated in FY 2026. He's concerned about BHP's recent outperformance versus other major Australian stocks, namely Rio Tinto and Commonwealth Bank of Australia. BHP has outperformed those peers by roughly 11% in the past three months, he says. That leads Citi to downgrade BHP to neutral from buy. Its price target remains at A$43.00/share. BHP is down 1.6% at A$41.43/share. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0019 GMT - There are no major surprises in miner Iluka's 1H profit result, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart, although he notes the dividend falls slightly short of expectations. "Little new here," he says, adding that the result is essentially neutral for shares. Underlying profit matches market consensus. The interim dividend of A$0.02 compares to the consensus of A$0.03. Citi has a neutral-high risk rating on Iluka, with a A$5.30 target price. Shares are down 5.8% at A$6.21. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2353 GMT - Bell Potter analyst Thomas Wakim downgrades Australia-listed pharmaceuticals company CSL to hold from buy after the company reported annual results and announced a spin-off of its vaccine unit Seqirus. Wakim says guidance for earnings growth was below consensus and that the 2H performance of CSL's Behring unit, which includes CSL's marquee plasma business, was underwhelming. Wakim also says the Seqirus spin-off seems unlikely to drive a near-term valuation uplift given falling vaccination rates and a soft growth outlook. He adds that there's now uncertainty regarding the forecasts of the de-merged company. CSL's shares tumbled nearly 17% yesterday after the result. ([email protected])

2336 GMT - The effect of U.S. tariffs remains the key near-term issue facing Australian small-appliance maker Breville, RBC analyst Wei-Weng Chen says. Breville has warned of a material increase in costs for fiscal 2026, based on the current tariff regime. Chen points out that analysts are already anticipating only minimal earnings growth in fiscal 2026. Breville says it is actively looking for ways to mitigate the tariff effects including by raising prices, and Chen expects the company to face plenty of questions on the topic. RBC has a "sector-perform" rating and A$32.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$36.06 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2253 GMT - Judo Capital's bull at Jefferies thinks that the Australian business lender's emerging leverage isn't fully reflected in its share price. Analyst Andrew Lyons tells clients in a note that the chances of Judo hitting its at-scale 30% cost-to-income ratio aspiration are uncertain, but he still thinks that the market isn't taking account of likely productivity improvements. He adds that Judo's fiscal 2025 expense performance was strong, with costs 2% below his forecasts. Jefferies trims its target price 2.7% and keeps a "buy" rating on the stock, which is at A$1.755 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

1839 ET - Pipeline operator APA's annual result is largely in line with expectations, as is its earnings and distribution outlook for FY 2026. As a result, Jefferies sees a muted share-price reaction today. APA expects a distribution of 58.0 Australian cents/share in FY 2026. It also forecast underlying Ebitda of A$2.12 billion to A$2.20 billion. Jefferies' analyst Anthony Moulder had forecast a dividend of 58.5 Australian cents and underlying Ebitda of around A$2.11 billion. APA ended Tuesday at A$8.47 and is up around 29% in the past six months. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2216 GMT - Seek's new bull at Jefferies reckons that the Australian job advertiser is likely to meet the top half of its profit guidance range. Analyst Roger Samuel raises his recommendation to "buy" from "hold," telling clients in a note that an improving macro backdrop is likely to support a decent performance. He observes that the mid-point of Seek's underlying profit guidance range is in-line with consensus, once the effect of its Sidekicker acquisition is stripped out. His bullish view is also supported by Seek's improved margins over the six months through June and strong recent yield growth. Jefferies raises its target price 30%, to A$32.00. Shares are at A$27.72 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

0719 GMT - Julius Baer recommends investors remain constructive on equities and consider episodes of weak macroeconomic data as re-entry points rather than exit signals. Equities remain the dominant play, says Christian Gattiker, head of research. In the U.S., it pays to stick to the unique business models, essentially the Magnificent 7, but a rotation is overdue, he reckons. Europe, Japan, China, and India are the preferred markets, with Europe offering particular value in cyclicals and financials, especially banks, he says in a note. Emerging markets warrant a neutral stance for now, but selective opportunities exist where structural reforms align with growth, he adds. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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