well, i wasn't going to comment on REH, just didn't want to upset the applecart, but since you brought it up SM! i just finished going through the transcript. boy oh boy, what a sxxt show.

but not entirely surprising, the interims were a warning. i am not a shareholder i did hold FND but sold when Trump came in, and i didn't know how the US 10Y would go, in the US, mortgage holders get a free option on the 30-year mortgages (Ozzie banks would hate that system). so activity comes when the refinancing cycle comes on lower rates. the housing sector over there has been thumped but in the last results commentary was mixed; some SP rose on the back of it. so REH had a mixed environment.

but it goes beyond macro, at the interims it was revealed the seller of the water biz, has poached what looks like a lot of staff from REH and has come at them strong, which has not slowed down. the commentary was things like, we have the worst house on the best street, a lot of work is needed, this is a multi-decade play, competitors are bigger, more efficient and aggressive etc etc. The weak player loses in sector downturns (thats REH US), no sign of upturn in activity and it went on.

The Aussie business has been the jewel, i always thought on the back of exclusive distribution rights and store density. again, here, management backtracked and SH margins were very weak, blaming Victoria, WFH and a revitalised Tradelink (which has been a pushover for decades)

no easy fixes here and another example of waiting for an operational turn has trumped (excuse the pun) those looking as a buy the dip LT value strategy.

valuation?

can they turn this around? recent results call into question whether this is a top-quality company, so i would be cautious. there are easier stories, maybe below $10 i would have a look, have to run a scenario of little margin improvement in the medium term, in reality, there are better US housing plays on the NYSE