0322 GMT - Brambles's bears at Jarden can't understand why others are so confident that the pallet giant's Americas revenue growth will accelerate over the rest of the calendar year. They break down the Australia-listed company's revenue miss for the 12 months through June to highlight the impact of a June-quarter decline in U.S. prices and volumes. Given this contributed to a 0.3% fall in revenue over the second half of the 2025 fiscal year, the Jarden analysts wonder why consensus is for a 3.5% on-year rise in Americas revenue for the first half of fiscal 2026. Jarden keeps a sell rating and A$22.10 target price on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$26.11. ([email protected])

0132 GMT - Capstone Copper's production setback at the Mantoverde mine in Chile is unlikely to be substantial enough to warrant a revision to 2025 guidance, Macquarie analysts say in a note. "While disappointing and ill timed, the production downgrade is minor in the broad scheme of things," the analysts say. They estimate a 1% hit to 2025 production and 4% reduction in Ebitda. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$12.50 target on Capstone's Australian shares. The stock is up 0.3% at A$10.79. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0110 GMT - Macquarie now prefers Northern Star over Newmont when choosing between Australia's largest gold-mining stocks. Newmont's stock is up roughly 25% since late June, while Northern Star has been flat, the bank says. It downgrades Newmont to neutral from outperform. It reiterates an outperform rating for Northern Star. "NEM was previously our top pick as we expected a tumultuous guidance season for NST and strong production performances from NEM, and this came to fruition," says Macquarie. "Since then NST's site visit to KCGM yielded little negative news" and "we now see 'clear air' for NST over the next 6 months or so, which should give the stock a chance to positively re-rate." While Newmont is increasingly expected to beat 2025 guidance, which appears to be priced in, Macquarie says. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0052 GMT - Brokers' share of the Australian mortgage market is being significantly overestimated by the industry, Macquarie analysts reckon. They think that the true proportion of home loans originated by brokers is 63%, not the 77% stated by the brokerage industry. They tell clients in a note that the size of the total market is being underestimated by the industry, which they say doesn't take account of A$27 billion of internal refinancing. The analysts say that Commonwealth Bank remains the clear market leader in proprietary lending with a 36% share. None of its peers have more than 14%, they add. ([email protected])

0036 GMT - Collins Food's looks well positioned to deliver on its annual profit guidance in the view of Wilsons analysts. They welcome the Australian fast-food franchiser's reiteration of its guidance for underlying net profit growth in the low to mid-teens, although they tell clients in a note that the move wasn't unexpected. Collins's Australia same-store sales are stronger than the Wilsons analysts had expected. They see the sales growth further supporting the positive margin momentum they saw in the second half of the last fiscal year. Wilsons has an overweight recommendation on the stock, which is up 4.7% at A$10.04. ([email protected])

0036 GMT - Specialist lender Resimac's turnaround in profitability and improved outlook prompt Bell Potter to upgrade its price target by 50% to A$1.50/share. Resimac is rebuilding under new CEO Pete Lirantzis. In March, Resimac completed the acquisition of the A$1.5 billion Westpac Auto portfolio. Resimac's FY 2025 result was better than expected, with normalized net profit of A$39.7 million ahead of Bell Potter's A$29.7 million forecast. Analyst Marcus Barnard says this result was driven by a larger loan book generating more net interest income and unexpectedly low impairments. Bell Potter raises its EPS forecasts for FY 2026 and FY 2027 by 52.5% and 46.0%, respectively. It retains a buy call on Resimac, which is down 0.9% at A$1.06. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0025 GMT - Military shipbuilder Austal's burgeoning order book contributes to Bell Potter becoming more bullish about its revenue and earnings outlook. Austal had an order book of A$13.1 billion at the end of June, which doesn't include the Landing Craft Medium and Heavy programs. "As the Commonwealth's Strategic Shipbuilder in Western Australia, we expect Austal to be awarded further work in Australia and anticipate increasing submarine work in the U.S. upon completion of capacity upgrades," analysts Daniel Laing and Baxter Kirk say. Bell Potter's revenue forecast for FY 2026 rises by 5%. It also increases forecasts for FY 2027 and FY 2028 by 6% and 7%, respectively. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0011 GMT - Lotus Resources' maiden output of uranium from the Kayelekera mine in Malawi doesn't tempt Canaccord Genuity into adjusting expectations of how quickly production can ramp up. Lotus achieved a goal for initial production in 3Q 2025. It continues to target nameplate capacity of some 200,000 lbs/month by 1Q 2026. That would be some 7-12 months ahead of Canaccord's forecasts. "We remain conservative on our ramp-up expectations, forecasting 1H of FY 2026 production of 121,000 lbs versus the company's first five months expectation of 600,000 lbs," analyst James Bullen says. Canaccord keeps a speculative buy call on Lotus. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0001 GMT - Citi is cautious about the trajectory of Nufarm's leverage beyond FY 2025, especially given subdued fish oil prices. That is in contrast to an upbeat tone from Nufarm's management. "While we expect leverage to improve across our forecast period, we think leverage may continue to track higher than 1.5-2.0x especially with overhang from the strategic review of Seed Tech persevering," analyst William Park says. Nufarm will need to refinance debt facilities due to mature in FY 2026 and FY 2026. Citi is concerned that lenders will require stricter covenants on new loans if Nufarm's leverage remains elevated. It retains a sell call on Nufarm. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2356 GMT - Citi doubts Australia's aviation market can sustain the amount of capacity being added, and retains a neutral call on Virgin Australia as a result. Analyst Samuel Seow expects Virgin's revenue growth to be strong. But industry costs appear to be rising and Virgin's operating leverage will be more muted, as all three domestic airline brands are "talking to above GDP/trend capacity and price growth," Citi says. So, the bank stays cautious about whether the market can sustain this level of supply. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2346 GMT - Collins Foods' trading update suggests that the Australian fast-food franchiser hasn't been hit by McDonald's new rival products, Citi analyst Sam Teeger says. He reckons that same-store sales growth at Collins's KFC Australia restaurants accelerated to 2.9% over the past 10 weeks, from 1.6% over the eight weeks prior. This puts same-store sales growth ahead of the 1.99% consensus forecast for the whole of the company's fiscal first half, Teeger tells clients in a note. The improvement logged in Germany should be positive for the prospects of expansion there, he adds. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$10.13 target price on the stock, which is at A$9.59 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

Regis Resources faces some pressure to secure a growth option, says Bell Potter analyst David Coates, citing a flat production outlook and higher costs. Coates is surprised Regis paid a A$0.05 final dividend. He expected Regis to hold back cash for organic growth or possible acquisitions. He reckons the company should look for a producing asset, or one near production. Coates acknowledges that could be difficult given the strong gold market. "While RRL paid a final dividend, we expect compelling organic and inorganic opportunities to emerge and successfully compete for capital allocation ahead of dividend distributions," he says. Bell Potter reiterates a hold rating on Regis. It raises its target to A$4.90 from A$4.60. Regis last traded at A$4.77. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2244 GMT -- Analysts downgraded earnings forecasts for roughly half of the Australia-listed companies that published results over the last reporting season, Jefferies analysts say. They tell clients in a note that consensus fiscal 2026 EPS forecasts for 49% of companies were lowered, by an average of 5%. This comfortably outweighs the 34% of consensus EPS forecasts that were revised upwards, by an average 3%. The Jefferies analysts say the largest downgrades were in mining and energy, while the most widespread were in tech, media and telco. Financials, the largest sector on the Australian Securities Exchange, was the most upgraded. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires