Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 04 Sep 2025 15:00:04
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Added 3 months ago

0233 GMT - It could be a number of years before major miners Rio Tinto and BHP Group make a final investment decision on the Resolution Copper project in Arizona, Citi analysts say following a roundtable with BHP's chief financial officer. "Our interpretation is that the FID for the project is likely only by end of the decade (with construction time to come beyond that)," they say in a note. Legal challenges remain, and the miners still have a lot of drilling to do to understand the orebody, they say. They also highlight the importance of technical due diligence on an appropriate block caving plan, after recent incidents at block caving operations owned by others in Chile and Congo. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0152 GMT - Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway thinks that the Australian competition regulator's concerns about IAG's proposed acquisition of RAC Insurance will turn out to be nothing more than a bump in the road. Pittaway tells clients in a note that he always saw the deal as the most difficult to progress of Australia's three recent motoring transactions. He is slightly disappointed by the regulator's preliminary concerns about the potential impact on Western Australia state's motor and home insurance market. However, he remains optimistic that the regulator will eventually allow it to pass. Citi has a buy rating and A$10.00 target price on IAG shares, which are up 1.1% at A$8.775. ([email protected])

0144 GMT - The recent cooling in Technology One's share price allows the enterprise software provider to shake off its bear at Bell Potter. Analyst Chris Savage makes no changes to his forecasts but raises his recommendation to hold from sell. The stock has slipped more than 12% since hitting a record in June. Savage expects the Australian company's fiscal 2025 pre-tax profit to rise 19%, beating its guidance for 13%-17%. He says there is some upside risk if second-half sales and marketing costs prove to be lower than flagged by Technology One. Bell Potter keeps a A$37.30 target price on the stock. Shares are up 0.2% at A$37.37. ([email protected])

0141 GMT - COG Financial's acquisition of salary packager EasiFleet looks cheap on a post-synergies basis, according to its bull at Bell Potter. Analyst Hayden Nicholson tells clients that COG's largest acquisition to date should bring an immediate margin contribution, with volumes rising on consolidation. He sees more than A$7 million in annual Ebitda accretion from customer migration efforts within as little as 12 months after completion. Nicholson is particularly enthusiastic about the fact that there is no overlap in clients between COG and EasiFleet. Bell Potter raises its target price by 9.8% to A$2.25 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 7.4% at A$2.03. ([email protected])

0128 GMT - Anglo American's planned sale of its remaining stake in Valterra Platinum could make the London-listed miner "a more appealing strategic fit for other major miners," Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina says in a note. LaFemina highlights BHP's interest last year in acquiring Anglo American, before being rebuffed by the company's board. The sale of Anglo's 19.9% stake in Valterra would make the company a better strategic fit for BHP, given geopolitical concerns in South Africa and operational risks in mining and processing platinum group metals, LaFemina says. "Until the Anglo coal business is sold, BHP would arguably be the most logical buyer from a strategic perspective," given BHP also has a large Australian coal business, he adds.([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0111 GMT - Tuas's bulls at Morgan Stanley see scope for the Australia-listed mobile provider to gain further market share in Singapore following its acquisition of virtual-network operator M1. MS analysts write in a note that Tuas will move from Singapore's No. 4 player to No. 2 if it competes the acquisition, but that additional gains look possible. They suggest that Tuas's new scale and synergies from the transaction could deliver cost advantages that it could pass on to customers. There are risks from the high level of leverage and integration, but they keep an overweight rating on the stock. Its target price is raised 36% to A$9.50. Shares are down 0.7% at A$7.465. ([email protected])

2349 GMT - GrainCorp may not benefit as much from a forecast bumper crop than in previous years, Morgans suggests. Government forecaster ABARES expects a winter crop of 30.0 million tons, up from an earlier estimate of 27.2 million tons made in June. "While we have upgraded our FY 2026 forecast, the upgrade is materially less than in past big crop years due to below average grain trading margins," analyst Belinda Moore says. Grain marketing margins are tight because Australian grain is trading at a premium to U.S. grain. That makes Australian grain less competitive. Global wheat prices have been under pressure because there are large crops world-wide. "This dynamic is a headwind for GrainCorp's grain trading," Morgans says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2325 GMT - Iress's appointment of a CEO with a strong recent track record is seen as a positive by the financial-software provider's bull at E&P. Analyst Olivier Coulon tells clients in a note that Andrew Russell, who will start as CEO in November, is very well regarded by small-cap investors. Coulon points to his leadership of Class prior to its acquisition by wealth platform Hub24, and at enterprise software provider Bravura Solutions. He says that Russell helped Bravura expand cash earnings margin by cutting costs, renegotiating contracts and stabilizing key client relationships. E&P has a "positive" recommendation and A$10.01 target price on Iress shares, which are at A$8.46 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2245 GMT - Ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project may have become more attractive to investors keen to join its development, according to Ord Minnett. Ioneer yesterday updated the economics of Rhyolite Ridge. It included a 17% increase in lithium-production rates and a 9% rise in boron-output rates. Analyst Patrick Wilson says Rhyolite Ridge's valuation rises by 42%, to US$1.28 billion, in response. "Most importantly, pre-production capex of US$1.7 billion remains unchanged, and does not exacerbate the challenging funding task facing the project," says Ord Minnett. "We consider the improved economics should add further appeal to strategic parties interested in acquiring a stake." Ord Minnett rates Ioneer a "speculative buy." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2230 GMT - DUG Technology's new deal with Malaysia's national oil company is further validation of the Australia's software provider's product suite, says Shaw & Partners. DUG's contract with Petronas is set to generate US$18.2 million of net revenue over three years. Analyst Jack Daley expects it to give a big boost to Ebitda, with incremental margins of more than 50%. Shaw raises its FY26 EPS forecast by 4% in response. Its EPS forecasts also rise by 13% and 11% in FY27 and FY28, respectively. "We increase our price target from A$3.00 to A$3.20 due to these upgrades," Shaw says. DUG ended Wednesday at A$1.96. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2222 GMT - The price paid by COG Financial Services to acquire the EasiFleet novated leasing and salary packaging business looks fair to Ord Minnett. COG Financial Services says the deal is worth an initial A$40 million, plus a deferred consideration of up to A$4.6 million. Analyst Ian Munro says the upfront consideration represents a multiple of 6x Ebitda "which we believe is a fair price relative to the synergy potential and complementary customer exposures." Ord Minnett retains an "accumulate" call on COG Financial Services and raises its price target by 6.8%, to A$2.04/share. COG Financial Services ended Wednesday at A$1.89. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

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