0224 GMT - The Church of England Pensions Board's chief responsible investment officer, Adam Matthews, welcomes the planned merger of miners Anglo American and Teck Resources. "This is a good move," Matthews says in a social-media post. It "makes sense and brings complementary cultures together. The industry will be stronger for this move." The fund, which holds more than $4 billion in assets, is pleased the merged company intends to have a primary listing in London, Matthews adds. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0107 GMT - Regulatory scrutiny under Canada's Investment Canada Act is the most material risk to a merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources, says Wood Mackenzie research director James Whiteside. The country's industry minister is "required to confirm alignment with national economic and security interests," he says. Although the companies have identified potential cost savings, Whiteside reckons the real upside could come from a higher valuation multiple if Anglo Teck can position itself as a pure-play copper growth story. For Anglo, the deal accelerates its strategy to prioritize scale and high-margin commodities. It offers Anglo "a geographically diversified pipeline of copper growth projects with strong returns." For Teck, the deal offers the highest copper exposure and least dilution among potential suitors, while keeping strategic influence through board representation, he adds. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0102 GMT - Beach Energy's recently declared final dividend of A$0.06/share could be a high-water mark for the Australian company, at least for now. That's the view of Macquarie, which has an underperform call on Beach's stock. "On existing assets, it looks difficult for Beach to repeat a final dividend of A$0.06/share (given FY 2026 expenditure, subsequent declines and decommissioning costs)," Macquarie says. Still, it raises a forecast for dividends in FY 2026 after taking a rosier view of Beach's earnings. Macquarie now expects a total dividend of A$0.04/share from Beach, split evenly between its interim and final payouts. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0057 GMT - Action taken by ANZ's new CEO to knock the lender into shape is fuelling Macquarie's expectations of a dividend cut. ANZ Tuesday outlined plans to cut more than 8% of its workforce and record almost A$560 million in costs. Macquarie estimates the impact on the bank's CET1 capital ratio is 8.5 bps, which it can comfortably accommodate. Still, Macquarie says "the intensity and scale of change early in the CEO's tenure suggests that further restructuring charges in FY 2026/2027 are possible, which could place additional strain on capital." It forecasts a dividend cut in 2H to A$0.73/share, from A$0.83/share. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0056 GMT - The case for investing in Australian REITs continues to improve, Morgans says. Lower interest rates are providing a tailwind. Also, the supply outlook is benign as construction costs rarely justify additional new developments at current rents, analyst Liam Schofield says. "The positive spread (between debt costs and cap rates), along with a supportive macro, is driving investor interest," Morgans says. "This resurgent demand underpins net tangible assets, whilst earnings growth generally supports distribution growth." Morgans raises its price target on Centuria Industrial REIT by 15% to A$3.75/share and HMC Capital by 16% to A$4.85/share, among other changes. Today, Centuria Industrial REIT is unchanged at A$3.35 and HMC Capital is up 1.4% at A$3.58. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0037 GMT - There are two key implications from the recent underperformance of Australian gold equities, says Bell Potter. One is that ASX gold stocks catch up strongly. The other is more inbound M&A. Analyst David Coates says the disconnect between ASX-listed gold producers and overseas companies is a significant departure from historic trading patterns. "Looking back, the only disconnect in the last 10 years is the two-way volatility (which quickly reverted) at the onset of the Covid pandemic," Bell Potter says. While ASX gold miners' FY 2026 production and cost guidance missed expectations, this was also a theme overseas. Bell Potter says other potential factors, including FX differentials or rising labor costs, also aren't a fundamental or sustainable justification for the stocks' underperformance. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0006 GMT - ANZ's move to cut more than 8% of its workforce tackles one issue, but several more remain unanswered, Morgan Stanley says. It appears that investors will have to wait until new CEO Nuno Matos delivers a strategy update on Oct. 13 to learn more about ANZ's priorities, analyst Richard E. Wiles says. "Important issues still to be addressed include senior management appointments, the retail bank strategy and plans for ANZ Plus, and the approach to capital and dividends," MS says. It retains an equal-weight call on ANZ, and raises its price target by 1.4% to A$29.70/share. ANZ is up 1.1% at A$33.26. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0002 GMT - ANZ's decision to cut more than 8% of its workforce and record almost A$560 million in costs is likely to be the first steps in a new productivity agenda, says Morgan Stanley. Potential savings from the initiatives outlined on Tuesday could total A$700 million-A$800 million. They relate to employee and third party costs, analyst Richard E. Wiles says. But there could be other sources of cost savings in a broader productivity agenda, MS says. "Our prior expense growth forecasts of 3.5% in FY 2026 and 2.5% in FY 2027 already assumed some productivity benefits, but we've lowered our FY 2027 estimate by 2.5% or A$340 million," MS says. It now forecasts a cost base of A$12.3 billion in FY 2027. That compares to A$11.9 billion in FY 2025, excluding restructuring costs of A$560 million. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2248 GMT - ANZ Group will cut more than 8% of its workforce to prop up earnings, but Jefferies says the problems could lie elsewhere. Analyst Andrew Lyons acknowledges ANZ's latest reported cost-to-income ratio is the highest of Australia's big four banks. Still, "when we attempt to isolate what drives this weaker outcome, it is not immediately obvious that it is driven by costs," Jefferies says. Both cost-to-assets and cost-to-risk weighted assets are among the lowest in the sector. They have actually improved most since FY16 when former CEO Shayne Elliott was starting in the job, Jefferies says. "Instead, ANZ's revenue generation, on both its assets and risk weighted assets, lags peers," it concludes. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2244 GMT -- Ord Minnett sees the logic in Cobram Estate Olives's A$175 million capital raising to fund an expansion in the U.S., despite the near-term dent it puts in EPS. "An expanded asset portfolio and increased production capacity strengthen Cobram's long-term competitive advantages in a large and lucrative market," analyst Ian Munro says. It thinks any benefit is likely to be felt from FY 2029 onwards, given the time it takes to buy land, plant olive trees and reach a commercial crop. Ord Minnett raises its price target by 6.8% to A$3.44/share and it retains an accumulate call on Cobram's stock. Cobram ended Tuesday at A$3.34. ([email protected])
2238 GMT - Ord Minnett takes a less rosy view of life sciences devices maker Trajan's earnings as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty create headwinds. The bank trims its medium-term net profit forecasts by 3% after updating assumptions to align with Trajan's FY 2026 guidance. These assumptions include weaker equipment sales and a repositioning of Trajan's supply chain. Still, Ord Minnett retains a buy call on the stock. "Notwithstanding near-term headwinds, Trajan remains a founder-led business with a material growth opportunity and an undemanding valuation" of 15x FY 2027 estimated price-to-earnings, analyst Tom Godfrey says. Ord Minnett's price target falls 14% to A$1.25/share. Trajan ended Tuesday at A$0.795. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2216 GMT - Alkane Resources's production guidance for FY26 was in line with Ord Minnett's estimates, but capex for its Bjoerkdal gold mine in Sweden was a negative surprise. Alkane forecast attributable annual output of 155,000-168,000 oz of gold equivalent from its global operations, compared to Ord Minnett's forecast of 157,000 oz. Still, Alkane signaled all-in sustaining costs of A$4,050-A$4,450/oz at Bjoerkdal, which were some 15% higher than the bank expected. This "may be attributable to elevated sustaining capex levels in FY 2026 for mine development to increase ore access, new water management infrastructure, tailings storage facility construction and fleet replacement," analyst Paul Kaner says. Ord Minnett has an "accumulate" call on Alkane. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires