0330 GMT - A downgrade to Hillgrove Resources' full-year production guidance overshadows the completion of its Nugent project, Moelis Australia analysts Paul Hissey and Nic McRostie say in a note. Earlier guidance seemed to assume copper grades would continue to be better than Hillgrove's mineral resource model, the analysts say. The production downgrade results in an operating cost downgrade, too. Yet development at Nugent should remove some existing bottlenecks, helping to steady production from 2026 onward, the analysts say. Moelis Australia has a buy rating and A$0.06 target on Hillgrove. The stock is down 4.0% at A$0.036. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0244 GMT - Any recovery in mineral sands markets "could be a quick swing factor" for Iluka's stock, which is down by roughly 14% this month, Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand says in a note. There has been continued pressure on the markets, especially from U.S. housing, which has dragged on demand, he says. Anand's remarks follow a suspension of production at Iluka's Cataby mine and Synthetic Rutile Kiln 2, or SR2, operation. Iluka will draw down inventories, which will be positive for cash flow but negative for earnings, he says. MS has an overweight rating and A$6.40 target on Iluka. The stock is down 1.8% at A$5.45. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0156 GMT - Suncorp's new bull at UBS warns that investors risk underestimating Australian insurers' earnings power due to an undue focus on underlying insurance trading ratios. Analyst Kieren Chidgey tells clients in a note that investors were forced by historical volatility into what he calls an ingrained focus on underlying ITR. Chidgey reckons that Suncorp's 13% increase to its fiscal 2026 catastrophe budget lifts the chances of a third straight annual beat. Suncorp should meet or beat its catastrophe budget in about 70% of single-year scenarios, he adds. UBS lifts its target price by 1.8% to A$23.15 and raises its recommendation to buy from neutral. Shares are down 0.4% at A$21.07. ([email protected])

0144 GMT - AGL Energy's bull at Macquarie says the Australian power generator's valuation has become increasingly attractive over the past month. The stock has de-rated since the company's annual result announcement in August, to what Macquarie analysts say is 9.3 times forward earnings. This represents a 55% discount to the ASX industrials sector and is two standard deviations below its long-term average, they tell clients in a note. At the same time, they see earnings quality improving as batteries replace older gas and coal contracts. There are potential cost savings from an expansion of AGL's household battery supported virtual power plant, they add. Macquarie lifts its target price 0.8% to A$11.00. and stays overweight on the stock. Shares are up 1.8% at 8.345. ([email protected])

0117 GMT - It would make strategic sense for Rio Tinto to bid for either Teck or Anglo American, say Jefferies analysts, as they highlight the risk of rival suitors emerging following a merger deal between Teck and Anglo this week. Rio Tinto has appeared to be less focused than some rivals on chasing copper growth, instead adding a large lithium business, the analysts say. Yet it is ramping up copper production at its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and does want more exposure to copper, they say. "While the strategy under new CEO, Simon Trott, has not yet been unveiled, the board seems to be supportive of M&A," they say. "More copper production via tier-one assets would help." Rio Tinto is little changed in Sydney at A$114.58. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0109 GMT - It is still possible for BHP to find a deal to grow its copper business, "but the window of opportunity for it to acquire true tier-one assets may slam shut if the Anglo-Teck merger happens," Jefferies analysts write in a note. They point out that BHP's copper production is expected to decline in future on falling grades. They also highlight how capital-intensive BHP's projects in Chile are likely to be, "with low projected returns." An acquisition of Anglo American, as attempted by BHP last year, would likely have triggered a significant rerating for the world's top mining stock, say the analysts. "Act now, or forever hold your peace," they say. BHP is down 0.2% at A$40.38. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2342 GMT - There are several Australian Reits with interest-rate hedges extending into the medium term that are currently out of the money, says Morgan Stanley. It believes these Reits could boost funds from operations by restructuring their hedge books. GPT looks interesting, analyst Simon Chan says. Three-quarters of its interest rate hedges in 2026 are locked in at 3.7%, with 68% of hedges in 2027 at 3.8%. "There is a latent 4.3% adjusted funds from operation benefit on a mark-to-market basis," MS says. Others with swaps that are above market include Stockland, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and Centuria Office REIT. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2338 GMT - IAG's improved profit outlook isn't enough to turn Morgan Stanley analysts bullish on the stock. They raise their FY 2026 profit forecast on IAG's acquisition of Queensland state motor insurer RACQ, but maintain an equal-weight recommendation on the stock. The MS analysts warn that IAG's new-customer growth is still lagging the pace at which the overall motor-insurance market is growing. Rival Suncorp is keeping pace with market growth, they add. MS sees IAG's insurance margin slipping to 14.7% in FY 2026 on dilution from RACQ, but lifts its net profit forecasts for the next two fiscal years on synergy driven EPS accretion. MS lifts its target price 4.1% to A$8.80. Shares are at A$8.71 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2335 GMT - Australian wholesaler Metcash is approaching fair value, given competitive tensions, says Jarden. It considers Metcash to be a good business. Over the past three years, Metcash has shown it isn't facing structural challenges, can grow market share and has the potential to expand down the value chain through retail hardware, analyst Ben Gilbert says. "It is, however, still a wholesaler that competes against vertically integrated players," Jarden says. They include Wesfarmers, Woolworths, Coles and Endeavour. Jarden expects these companies to ratchet up competitive pressure. "Thus, while we see its valuation as attractive, with food trading at an implied circa 11X FY 2026 enterprise value-to-Ebit, we are seeing risk/reward as balanced, and move to a neutral rating," Jarden says. It was previously at overweight. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2327 GMT - Suncorp looks better placed than Australian insurance rival IAG to deliver the organic growth that investors are looking for, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They tell clients in a note that IAG's proposed acquisition of RACI in Western Australia state is unlikely to secure approval from the competition regulator, leaving the market more focused on organic growth. While they acknowledge that IAG is winning customers switching provider from Suncorp, they also think that Suncorp is taking customers from Allianz and other brands. MS keeps an "overweight" recommendation and A$25.00 target price on Suncorp's stock, which is at A$21.15 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2232 GMT -- Iluka's idling of the Cataby mine and SR2 kiln in Western Australia is a prudent move, despite the negative market reaction to the decision. Analyst Matthew Hope says it should liberate around A$110 million of cash and defer some A$40 million in sustaining capex. The suspension won't hurt sales, as Iluka's has plentiful stocks to meet demand. "However, the move and conference call was a reminder for investors that the titanium market is very weak at present, and that may impact Iluka if contract terms are renegotiated," Ord Minnett says. The bank pares its price target on the stock by 8.3% to A$5.50/share and retains a hold call. Iluka ended Wednesday at A$5.55. ([email protected])

2236 GMT - Jefferies retains a bullish call on Metcash despite a mildly disappointing trading update that leads to a 5% downgrade of its FY26 Ebit forecast. Analyst Michael Simotas says an additional A$19 million costs in FY26 would weigh on earnings. Metcash's food and liquor sales were weaker than the market expected, with margins under pressure. "However, our positive thesis is predicated on Hardware's leverage to a housing recovery," Jefferies says. "It is still very early days, but it was pleasing to see continued signs of improvement (albeit modest) across IHG & Total Tools." Jefferies raises its price target by 4.7%, to A$4.50/share. Metcash ended Wednesday at A$4.03. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires