Forum Topics VBC VBC Quick Thesis

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

I went back through DMX Asset Management’s monthlies (small-cap manager I like) hunting for ideas and VBC kept popping up as a high-conviction mispricing with improving cash generation, hidden franking/tax assets, and with a software opportunity.

What VBC does

  • Verbrec helps big resource and energy companies plan, build and look after their gear (pipelines, plants, power systems).
  • They also run and maintain this stuff so it keeps working safely.
  • And they sell StacksOn, software that shows a 3D “digital twin” of giant ore stockpiles so miners can load trains/ships faster and hit grade targets.


Why DMX likes VBC

  • They fixed a messy first half. The second half ran much better, pointing to about $8m EBITDA and ~$5m NPAT if that pace continues.
  • It still looks cheap. With a market value under ~$30m, those earnings imply a very low PE (under ~5-6×) if they can keep that run-rate in FY26.
  • It’s making real cash. The company has moved to net cash and brought back a dividend, which means the profits are converting into money in the bank.
  • There’s “hidden value.” VBC has roughly $6m of franking credits and about $10m of tax benefits, which can help boost future shareholder returns (e.g., fully-franked dividends) without extra cost.
  • A small software kicker. VBC’s StacksOn product is already used by BHP, and a global reseller deal with Datamine should help sell it wider. DMX believes this upside isn’t fully baked into the share price.
  • Cleaner, simpler business. They’re selling the training arm for cash, which strengthens the balance sheet and lets management focus on the core engineering work and the software opportunity.
  • DMX owns a meaningful stake, which signals confidence and adds a shareholder pushing for sensible capital allocation.


DMX thinks the numbers are improving, the stock is cheap, cash is building, and there’s extra upside from software meaning the share price could re-rate meaningfully if execution continues.

twee
Added 2 months ago

Had a quick look at his and I will throw in my unsolicited 2c.

From a look at the latest annual report. Revenue has declined for 3 years in a row in what I would consider the boom of the cycle, management are telling a gross margin story. FY25 profit was down FY24 if you exclude discontinued operations. Them paying a dividend also struck me as strange, you are aiming for growth, yet you are paying back your cash, and also it's pretty pitiful, what's the point.

Management have obviously sharpened the pencils on tenders and managed to be more selective on projects. So great, margins are stable, debt is better managed but now the question is how are you going to grow the top line again? They could just do the easy thing and go back the other way and be less selective in tenders and reduce their margin or grow more sustainable at slower rate.

The other thing is engineering/mining services are a dime a dozen on the ASX, so I think a quality focus is sensible.

Quick valuation, say 9.5x trailing pe and forward pe, say 5m NPAT brings it down to 7x, Austin engineering is also on 7x trailing. So yes maybe, a simple thesis is they show some top line growth again and get a bump.

I should say I'm biased against these kinds of services businesses, I just think they are too hard to run sustainably and judge their quality (probably requires instilling a certain type of culture through the org).

I see they have got some cash with selling the training business, so my questions would be around how they will grow, trying to judge management quality.

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edgescape
Added 2 months ago

VBC is one I still remember..

Sold last year because I wasn't happy with the small pipeline vs market cap. And one contract I recall they announced when I was holding was small. But to be fair it was good of them to finally release their pipeline for the first time in history.

Also I believe TIGA still holds.

Imho they will use the cash to chase and hedge any large projects if they manage to win them being a service or engineering business.

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Strawman
Added 3 months ago

@DrJP Steve and the team at DMX are among the better small cap fundies out there (their main fund has crushed the market since inception). So that's all I need to hear to take a closer look at Verbrec.

I'll try and set up a meeting with the CEO

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DrJP
Added 3 months ago

@Strawman That would be great if you find the time to have a closer look. I am not the best at assessing financials or doing valuations and tend to follow hype trains off cliffs!

VBC are expecting 11.5mil for the training business they are selling and it only contributes <10% to revenues. The market cap is 34mil (Commsec) so if that sale is for cash, they would hold >30% of their MC in cash just from that.

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