Forum Topics Min - buy still?
erank
Added 3 months ago

Min - Buy

This is my largest individual stock in my portfolio, so I am quite biased. But here is my reasoning:

This is a beaten up stock, with $90 all-time highs a few years ago and it’s currently recovering from lows of $15. So ultimately, they must’ve been doing something good for them to reach those heights. Anyways, I've had most of my success picking struggling companies and them rebounding so admittedly I do get drawn to them. 

So the fall to $20 dollars was an overreaction, why it fell: 


  • Unfavourable iron ore and lithium prices, plus structural challenges at their sites
  • Chris Ellison tax evasion case and unethical behaviour
  • Overleveraged


Can it overcome these issues: YES. 

The one risk I was a bit worried about was the iron ore price, however I believe the price will remain due to China bouncing back and nations spending more on their defences. Therefore they’ll pay back their debt comfortably and have enough money to fix their roads.

Anyway I could write about how great their mining services business is and how I’m sure other companies have gotten away with unlawful behaviour but I want to keep this short and sharp. 

FYI most of the people in here are probably 10X smarter than I am, but I’m young and this investment makes sense to me.



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Slomo
Added 2 months ago

I likely share your bias @erank as MIN is a significant holding for me too.

They've just announced that they're looking to roll their earliest maturing debt for another 4 years or so.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/min/announcements/proposed-offering-of-up-to-us700m-senior-unsecured-notes-6A1285066

It will be interesting to see if they get this away in full and at what price. CFO Mark Wilson said recently they are seeing about 7.5% from memory.

If he can get that it will be their cheapest debt on issue. Looks like they're a chance with all current bonds trading at a premium.

I had thought they might try to combine the next 2 bond maturities with a refi at a higher amount as issue #2 is eligible for refinancing this Nov.

Maybe it depends on the appetite they see with this first refi. That will be a good test.

In any case, this would give them some more breathing room and reduce the need for asset sales, so good to see they are retaining optionality - true to form for this business.

Disc: Held.

17

Slomo
Added 2 months ago

Refi pricing just came in at 7%. This is a 125 bp improvement on the US$700m bond they will retire early.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/min/announcements/pricing-of-us700-million-senior-unsecured-notes-offering-6A1285230

More importantly it shows there is confidence and appetite in the credit market - generally more rational than equity markets, so not likely a need for asset sales if conditions don't favour it.

This does kick the debt can down the road but that road (and the other one) seems to look a little smoother these days.

There remains a big dependency on iron ore prices holding up and the road repairs (due this month) to haul them out.

On Iron Ore prices - these are holding up nicely as Onslow hits nameplate production and at the latest update, the CFO said they've now put some hedging in place.

Add to that life of mine demand from the 50-75% Baosteel off-take agreement and their plans for Onslow iron to be blended with Simandou higher-grade ore.

That's on top of the low cost of Onslow Ore, even after haulage, transshipping, etc.

Things are looking a lot better (for now) than they were just a few months ago.

Disc: Held

10

UlladullaDave
Added 2 months ago

Refi pricing just came in at 7%. This is a 125 bp improvement on the US$700m bond they will retire early.

That is some refi given the state of the balance sheet! If they can actually get 7% then we may have to question whether fixed interest guys are still more clear eyed than equity investors. Lol

15

Rocket6
Added 2 months ago

Agree with your analysis @Slomo. If they manage to achieve this that is impressive and further reduces risk associated with the business.

Things are looking a little more positive here and the share price reflects that. Any buyers around the $16 mark -- when the vultures were circling -- have been handsomely rewarded, and then some.

For those that missed it also, MinRes recently shared this update via their socials:

August was a record-breaking month for our Iron Ore division, shipping more than four million tonnes for the first time in company history. The record comprised 3.21Mt from Onslow Iron, shipped from the Port of Ashburton, plus 0.88Mt from our Central Pilbara operations via Utah Point at the Port of Port Hedland. “This is a great milestone for our division and is testament to the quality people we have working on our projects right across the business,” said Chief Executive Iron Ore Chris Soccio.

Annualise this figure and they are at nameplate capacity. If the iron ore price remains anywhere near what it is today, MinRes will be spitting out cash within 12 months.**

**updating this to further mention that business is hard, things don't always go to plan. Other risks exist, in addition to the commodity price and their debt. Execution at Onslow in particular is a big factor and worth mentioning.

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