Forum Topics RFF RFF RFF valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 3 months ago
Justification

$2.00 as distribution won't grow this FY. I don't think the price reflects potential growth in the distribution in FY27. I also believe the current market discount is fundamentally too high, ~40%.

The fund has long aimed for 4% growth in distributions. As rent increases from newly leased assets and indexation/rent reviews continue, it won't take much to narrow the NTA discount, which is a touch above $3.

Further asset sales have been flagged, so announcements are expected. This should be mostly positive, as long as rent lost is exceeded by rent gained from the rest of the portfolio and newly leased properties during FY26. Some of the properties flagged were apparently surplus to requirement and won't be developed. Like small sugarcane farms which were not rented but may see a negligible drop in farm income.

I expect to see AFFO grow this FY and next. Distributions will likely increase once AFFO exceeds the current distribution.



ApplePark
Added 2 months ago

Something I forgot to mention and thought of after was the dividend yield.

At ~6% yield, I think shares could easily rise to push the dividend yield towards 5%. Theres no sign the dividend will be cut and AFFO will cover 100% of the payout this FY. If theres another interest rate cut this year, I would also expect this is support the share price and I think thats exactly whats happen since the start of this year when rates were first cut.

Macquarie term deposit is sitting at 4.25%. BHP is I think ~5% grossed up based on FY25 and thats looking rocky at the moment.

7

Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Even 5% is a good yield @ApplePark except it's unfranked in this case (with RFF) so that rules out a number of investors who are chasing fully franked dividends/distributions, so while lower TD rates will bring further interest towards higher yielding stocks that are seen as reasonably low risk, like RFF, I feel that more flows will go to those providing franked dividends than to those who do not provide any franking credits like RFF.

I regard them as a little riskier than you probably do because of the exposure to extreme weather events and their tennants' ability, or potential lack of ability, to absorb lease increases when they are losing money due to extreme weather events, and that then possibly flowing through to lower land values - we've had this discussion before and I agree that rural land values have been increasing, but with climate change and more frequent extreme weather events expected, I think there's a chance the future might not be quite as rosy as the past decade or so. Just my own opinion.

But on the whole I reckon the market views them as low risk, just like many other real estate trusts that you can invest in, even though this one is rural property rather than city property, so what I think about their risks probably doesn't matter if the majority of the market don't see it the same way.

I think RFF's share price will likely take off if they start to raise their distributions gradually once again (like they used to) instead of keeping them flat (as they have been lately), and they'll need to add more value to those properties and charge more for them to support rising distributions. In that scenario I can see them getting a decent positive re-rating by the market.

Also, you mentioned BHP; I think anyone relying on mining companies for dividend income is either looking to do it short term or they're probably misguided, as not only are miners subject to commodity cycles and fluctuating prices, they are also subject to catastrophic events such as what recently happened at the huge Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia owned by Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX). See here: https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/grasberg-mine-2025-accident-impact-copper-markets/ and here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grasberg-disaster-highlights-fragility-copper-supply-chain-2025-09-29/ Freeport reckon they won't get Grasberg back up to its pre-mudslide run rate until 2027 !! I believe they are still looking for the bodies of 5 miners who are still missing (they've already recovered 2 bodies), and that's before the work starts to remove the thousands of tonnes of mud and repair all of their underground infrastructure to enable mining to recommence in that area.

It's very risky to rely on Miners' dividends to continue into the future at the same rate as the past or better. So when interest rates drop and TDs start looking really unappealing, people would likely be switching into companies that pay good yields but are considered to be a lot safer than miners.

Discl: Not holding RFF (have done in prior years when their distributions were rising).

11