Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 02 Oct 2025 15:00:56
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0217 GMT - Eagers Automotive adds ballast to Morgan Stanley's bullish view of its stock with a major foray into Canada. Eagers is investing A$1.04 billion for a 65% stake in CanadaOne Auto, which owns 42 dealerships across five Canadian provinces. MS analyst Chenny Wang says the deal materially extends Eagers's growth runway into a market that shares similarities to Australia where it is the dominant car dealer. "Track record and vendor alignment also help alleviate execution concerns," MS says. It lifts its price target by 14% to A$32.00 a share. Eagers, currently in a trading halt, was at A$29.32 prior to the deal becoming known. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0157 GMT - Ramsay Health Care gets a new bear in Morgan Stanley, which highlights a 1.3% drop in volumes at Australian private hospitals between April and June. Analyst David L. Bailey says reduced hospital use in the quarter more than offset the combined impacts of population growth, ageing and take-up of private health insurance. MS pares its earnings forecasts for Ramsay's operations in Australia and France in FY 2026. They now imply an additional contraction in EBIT margins in both countries. MS says its EPS forecast is some 7% below consensus hopes in FY 2026, and 13% below market expectations in FY 2027. The bank downgrades Ramsay to underweight from equal-weight, and lowers its price target by 15% to A$31.30/share. Ramsay is down 2.6% at A$31.69 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0149 GMT - Westpac is likely to sweeten its share buyback program, but it's not a certainty, says Morgan Stanley. It forecasts a A$1 billion top-up to Westpac's on-market buyback in 2026. That view reflects Westpac's healthy capital buffer, lower interest-rate risk in its banking book, and the prospect of a A$500 million capital release from a reduction in its operational risk overlay. "However, the combination of stronger loan growth, higher UNITE spending, and a new CFO could see Westpac take a more measured approach to capital management," analyst Richard E. Wiles says. UNITE refers to Westpac's technology overhaul. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0120 GMT - It is likely Dyno Nobel will close the Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant next year, according to Morgans analyst Belinda Moore, who reckons it will be hard for the company to find a buyer of the facility. Dyno Nobel says a sale process for Phosphate Hill is continuing, but has signaled it will close the plant by the end of September 2026 if it can't find a buyer by March 31. "If DNL can sell this business, we don't expect the proceeds to be meaningful given the buyer will need to fund the next turnaround which will cost at least A$100 million," says Moore. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0111 GMT - Morgans analyst Belinda Moore laments the sale of Dyno Nobel's fertilizers businesses "for poor prices while earnings are high." The broker upgrades FY 2025-2026 fertilizers earnings estimates because of increased prices, but Moore notes that is "somewhat irrelevant" given Dyno Nobel is selling those operations. "The removal of fertilizers earnings is highly EPS dilutive (especially at these prices), however we recognize that as a pure play explosives business, DNL will become a much simpler story," Moore says. Morgans raises its target on the stock to A$3.16 from A$2.82. It reiterates a hold rating. Moore says Morgans prefers Orica for exposure to explosives. Dyno Nobel is down 0.9% at A$3.22. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2335 GMT - The new shape of Dyno Nobel's business is becoming clearer as it sheds its fertilizers assets and focuses on explosives, says Citi analyst William Park. Improved clarity triggers a lift in Citi's target on the stock to A$3.50, from A$2.55. The bank reiterates a neutral rating. "There is no shortage of structural tailwinds that should be supportive of DNL's growth trajectory," says Park. That includes increasing demand for precision blasting technologies and challenges as mines go deeper and miners seek to maintain output volumes. "However, we think it is prudent to remain conservative," particularly on Dyno Nobel's EMEA and Latam unit, or DNEL, given the company doesn't have manufacturing capacity in those regions, Park says. Dyno Nobel rose 4.8% Wednesday to A$3.25. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2313 GMT -- Investors in Amcor appear to be increasingly concerned that a decline in volumes is structural for packaged consumer goods, Jefferies says. It thinks those worries are overdone, despite U.S. fast-moving consumer goods volumes still 5% below 2020 levels. Analyst Ramoun Lazar says Amcor is already trading like a structurally impaired business. "We believe volume weakness is mostly cyclical," Jefferies says. "Weak end markets have been compounded by high rates of inflation weighing on affordability and driving prolonged destocking." This is particularly a headwind in the U.S. Still, Jefferies sees pockets of growth. "Longer term we see low-single-digit percent industry volume growth supported by the role of packaging in food safety/shelf life, health trends leading to new category growth and smaller packs," Jefferies says. ([email protected])

2309 GMT -- Eagers Automotive's foray into Canada is so big that it would typically raise a red flag, but Jefferies thinks investors will be relaxed about the deal. Eagers is investing A$1.04 billion for a 65% stake in CanadaOne Auto, which owns 42 dealerships across five Canadian provinces. Working in Eagers's favor is its scale and flawless M&A history, Jefferies says. Analyst John Campbell also highlights the 15% boost to earnings from the deal. "With the financial support of Eagers, the opportunity to fast track CanadaOne Auto's consolidation is clear," Jefferies says. CanadaOne Auto has been growing its dealership numbers by a compound annual rate of 18% over the past five years. Still, it has less than 3% market share. "Further, taking easyauto123 into Canada is a clear opportunity," says Jefferies, referring to Eagers's used-car business. ([email protected])

2256 GMT - Consensus forecasts for Lottery's 1H Ebit look too optimistic to Citi. Turnover growth for major lottery games was flat in 1Q of FY 2026. That's significant because consensus forecasts for 1H imply that 20% turnover growth is needed in 2Q. Analyst Adrian Lemme thinks such a pickup is unlikely. Citi points out that like-for-like comparisons for the Powerball lottery game remain weak. Lottery Corp's 1H performance measures up against a solid run of jackpots a year ago. Also, the "16.7% Powerball price increase only hits in November with only partial retention likely (10% retained)," Citi says. Its forecasts for 1H Ebit are 1% below consensus hopes. Citi keeps a sell call on Lottery Corp. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2241 GMT - Citi is cautiously optimistic that Flight Centre will have an uninterrupted FY 2026. It reaches that view after assessing signs of improvement or stabilization in Flight Centre's underlying markets. Analyst Samuel Seow says Australian resident departures appear positive in FY 2026 so far. Other conclusions: International prices appear stable, short-haul trips to Japan and Southeast Asia remain popular, and demand for long-haul flights to Europe and the U.S. seem to be growing at by single- to mid-single-digit percent. "While it's still early days, we estimate the underlying global travel market (relevant to Flight Centre) has started out better than the company's 'fairly flat' guide," Citi says. It retains a buy call on Flight Centre's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2234 GMT - AGL Energy looks oversold to Citi. Investors are cautious because AGL is undertaking a capital-intensive transformation that will require A$5 billion of investment through FY 2030, Citi says. "We argue the debate for investors is not whether Origin Energy deserves a premium, but what catalyst can trigger a rotation back into AGL," analyst Tom Wallington says. This can happen when investors gain greater visibility on AGL's battery build-out as it shifts away from coal. "Our thesis is that the market is overly discounting AGL's risks at this point in the cycle and as execution is de-risked, sentiment should shift from skepticism to a recognition of the transformation value," Citi adds. AGL ended Wednesday at A$9.22. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0656 GMT - Australian lithium stocks close in the red after a Bloomberg article said Chinese authorities approved a reserve report for Contemporary Amperex Technology's suspended Jianxiawo mine, citing unnamed sources. Chinese lithium supply has been in the spotlight in recent months after CATL suspended the major project because of an expired license. Some investors bet supply cuts in China could reduce a global glut of the battery ingredient, driving a rally in lithium stocks. Liontown Resources sheds 11% to close at A$0.88, marking its lowest close in two weeks. Pilbara Minerals fell 6.4% to close at A$2.36, while IGO declined 4.1% and Mineral Resources closed 3.8% lower. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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