0516 GMT - Iron-ore market participants seem to think any Chinese ban on BHP's cargoes won't have a lasting impact, with prices having barely budged in response, says Capital Economics' Marcel Thieliant. "We wouldn't rule out that BHP grants some minor concession given its large reliance on Chinese demand," Thieliant says in a note. But that dependence runs both ways, he says, arguing that Australia has the upper hand given its low-cost supply and BHP's sizable share of the market. Other companies wouldn't be able to fill the gap, and any upward pressure on prices would be bad news for China given how many mills are already unprofitable, he says. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0444 GMT - Vault Minerals has made a strong start to FY 2026, say Moelis Australia analysts Paul Hissey and Nic McRostie. "In simple terms, the first quarter is tracking well ahead of a regularized quarterly estimates based on the midpoint of FY guidance," the analysts say in a note. "However, we acknowledge that a year's worth of production is seldom delivered in perfectly equal quarterly portions." While Vault's legacy hedge book continues to be a drag, that will reduce over the course of the year, they say. The analysts reckon there is room for the stock to rise despite a near doubling in its share price since the start of August. Moelis Australia has a hold rating and A$0.69 target on the stock. Vault is down 0.4% at A$0.6825. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0412 GMT - For Canaccord Genuity, a starting point for offshore acquisitions by Australian companies is always to be skeptical. So, why is it upbeat about Eagers Automotive's A$1.04 billion investment for a 65% stake in CanadaOne Auto, which owns 42 vehicle dealerships across five Canadian provinces? "We believe this is likely an instance where it will work and prove successful," analyst Andrew Hodge says. "In large part, this is because we believe both companies operate with an 'owners' mindset' and approach." Its EPS forecasts for FY 2026 and FY 2027 rise by 13% and 16%, respectively. That reflects the closing of the acquisition in FY 2026, followed by a full year of ownership. It retains a buy call on Eagers's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2321 GMT - Investors in Australian residential property are back, says Morgan Stanley. Its latest survey paints a positive outlook for sentiment, anchored by expectations of rising house prices and a preference for detached homes. A key finding: 55% of potential purchasers indicate they are interested in buying property as an investment this year, up from 35% in 2024. "This may be most impactful for Mirvac, where investors made up just 25% of sales in FY 2025, versus typically 55-60% pre-FY 2020," analyst Lauren A. Berry says. MS has an overweight call on Stockland and an equal-weight call on Mirvac. ([email protected])

2319 GMT - Miner New Hope looks cheap but does suit patient investors, especially because of ongoing weakness in thermal-coal prices, says Morgans analyst Chris Creech. "While we do not expect prices to stay depressed over the medium term, industry contacts in Brisbane suggest limited optimism for a near-term recovery," Creech says in a note. Morgans has an accumulate rating on New Hope. It pares its target to A$4.35 from A$4.45. New Hope -- down 20% year to date -- last traded at A$3.95. ([email protected])

2306 GMT - Eagers Automotive has picked a highly attractive market to expand overseas, says Macquarie. Eagers is investing A$1.04 billion for a 65% stake in CanadaOne Auto, which owns 42 vehicle dealerships across five Canadian provinces. Macquarie notes that the Canadian market is 1.6 times the size of Australia. It's less competitive with 36 auto brands vying for customers, compared to 75 in Australia. It's also highly fragmented with around 89% of dealers owned by small groups. "The acquisition of CanadaOne provides Eagers a platform for further North American inorganic growth," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on Eagers, which it considers to be in an earnings-upgrade cycle. ([email protected])

2246 GMT - Forsyth Barr lays out two reasons why it's pleased with Synlait Milk's sale of its North Island assets to health care company Abbott for NZ$307 million. The deal removes risk to Synlait's balance sheet. Forsyth Barr estimates Synlait will be net cash in FY 2026. Secondly, the transaction eliminates material losses, given the North Island assets had a NZ$20 million drag on Ebit in FY 2025. "It has served as a sharp lesson in the value of disciplined capital allocation," analyst Matt Montgomerie says. "We are glad this journey is over." Forsyth Barr upgrades Synlait to neutral, from underperform. Synlait is unchanged at NZ$0.835 today. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires