Forum Topics PMV PMV Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 months ago

Could a sum of the parts opportunity be forming at Premier Investments? The market cap sits around $3 billion, with their Breville stake worth about $1 billion on market, Peter Alexander valued mid range at roughly $2 billion, and around $350 million in net cash.

That would imply the rest of the business is essentially being valued at zero. I don’t know enough about the Peter Alexander and other divisions to be confident, but it looks worth a closer look.

UlladullaDave
Added 2 months ago

It's an interesting one. I think the issue you might run into is that for SOTP to work there has to be a catalyst that crystallises the various parts. With Lew owning ~30% of PMV any divestment would have to go through him. And AFAIK he has no intention of breaking up PMV. In the absence of that, I guess the market will just price PMV on some basis of cashflow to equityholders and not the underlying assets.

10

PhilO
Added 2 months ago

@UlladullaDave Fair point — Lew is pretty long term thinker. And I really don’t know what his attraction to Myer has been for all these years. That said, I think there are signs Lew might be more open to rationalising the structure than before. The apparel brands were recently combined with Myer, which feels like a step in that direction.

Even if he doesn’t move quickly, I tend to think that over time the market often catches up with the underlying value — a bit like what eventually happened with News Corp’s REA stake


9

UlladullaDave
Added 2 months ago

 The apparel brands were recently combined with Myer, which feels like a step in that direction.

That felt like dumping all the underperforming assets into MYR rather than a sign he wants to sell off what's left. It was bizarre that MYR shareholders waved it through. Like you though, I am very confused as to why he keeps chasing MYR. Department stores peaked in the 1990s.

11

PhilO
Added 2 months ago

I wasn’t that tuned in at the time but I recall something about Myer’s value as a shopfront for his brands being the motivation. But that seems like a long bow to me.

8

PhilO
Added 2 months ago

Crunched a few high level numbers and I can’t get to a big enough margin of safety for a sum of the parts case to really stack up under modest assumptions. It probably relies on Smiggle reversing its current sales decline and strong ongoing growth from Peter Alexander, which I don’t fully understand — I’ve never quite grasped the appeal of expensive pyjamas. So as far as I see, it could just as easily prove to be a fad. So I’m moving on for now. Might be interested at a 30% lower price.

12