Forum Topics PMV PMV Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 4 months ago

Could a sum of the parts opportunity be forming at Premier Investments? The market cap sits around $3 billion, with their Breville stake worth about $1 billion on market, Peter Alexander valued mid range at roughly $2 billion, and around $350 million in net cash.

That would imply the rest of the business is essentially being valued at zero. I don’t know enough about the Peter Alexander and other divisions to be confident, but it looks worth a closer look.

UlladullaDave
Added 4 months ago

It's an interesting one. I think the issue you might run into is that for SOTP to work there has to be a catalyst that crystallises the various parts. With Lew owning ~30% of PMV any divestment would have to go through him. And AFAIK he has no intention of breaking up PMV. In the absence of that, I guess the market will just price PMV on some basis of cashflow to equityholders and not the underlying assets.

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PhilO
Added 4 months ago

@UlladullaDave Fair point — Lew is pretty long term thinker. And I really don’t know what his attraction to Myer has been for all these years. That said, I think there are signs Lew might be more open to rationalising the structure than before. The apparel brands were recently combined with Myer, which feels like a step in that direction.

Even if he doesn’t move quickly, I tend to think that over time the market often catches up with the underlying value — a bit like what eventually happened with News Corp’s REA stake


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UlladullaDave
Added 4 months ago

 The apparel brands were recently combined with Myer, which feels like a step in that direction.

That felt like dumping all the underperforming assets into MYR rather than a sign he wants to sell off what's left. It was bizarre that MYR shareholders waved it through. Like you though, I am very confused as to why he keeps chasing MYR. Department stores peaked in the 1990s.

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PhilO
Added 4 months ago

I wasn’t that tuned in at the time but I recall something about Myer’s value as a shopfront for his brands being the motivation. But that seems like a long bow to me.

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PhilO
Added 4 months ago

Crunched a few high level numbers and I can’t get to a big enough margin of safety for a sum of the parts case to really stack up under modest assumptions. It probably relies on Smiggle reversing its current sales decline and strong ongoing growth from Peter Alexander, which I don’t fully understand — I’ve never quite grasped the appeal of expensive pyjamas. So as far as I see, it could just as easily prove to be a fad. So I’m moving on for now. Might be interested at a 30% lower price.

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PhilO
Added 2 weeks ago

The 30% drop I was looking for appears to have come. Time to revisit.

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tomsmithidg
Added 2 weeks ago

@UlladullaDave and @PhilO I bought Myer due to Lew taking the controlling stake and amalgamating the brand. The rationale seems to be store space, HR and logistics savings but also growing the Myer Rewards business. I think they have the old Qantas Rewards boss in Myer now. Myer Rewards are now available in all those other brands' stand alone stores now. So far I am not being rewarded for my bet, the stock is well down and continuing downwards. Pretty sure the rate hike (and likely subsequent hikes) are going to do retail businesses no favours.

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