ARU I expected the re rate, Cob has risen 600% ish in the last 10 days. Great to start making back my losses however does anyone have any idea why? Also no one is talking about them?
My guess @Saiton is that these companies are mostly running due to the talk of Australia's federal government establishing a "critical minerals strategic reserve" here in Australia and that they (meaning our Fed Gov) are likely to financially back companies who are developing projects to produce these critical minerals, such as REE/REO (rare earth elements/oxides) and even cobalt potentially.
Here's a quote from the website of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PMC):
- On 24 April 2025, the Hon Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister of Australia, committed to establish a Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve to maximise the strategic value of Australia’s critical minerals.
- The government allocated $1.2 billion to establish the reserve in the 2025-26 Federal Budget. The reserve is expected to be operational in the second half of 2026.
- Critical minerals and rare earths are essential inputs to the modern and future economy – underpinning the energy transition, high tech manufacturing, AI and the digital economy.
Source: https://www.pmc.gov.au/domestic-policy/critical-minerals-strategic-reserve
More recently, there has been talk about Albanese possibly using this as a bargaining chip when he meets with Trump at the White House later this month: https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/trade-minister-don-farrell-says-australia-is-in-the-golden-age-in-critical-minerals/news-story/85d72da3db7cd56527599c3ebf70e98d
Excerpt:
Trade minister Don Farrell says Australia is in the “golden age” in critical minerals
Federal trade minister Don Farrell has been quizzed on a critical minerals deal with the US, ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Trump meeting.
October 12, 2025 - 9:56AM
Federal trade minister Don Farrell says Australia is in the “golden age” in critical minerals as he refuses to be drawn on reports for a new $1.2 billion critical minerals strategic reserve.
Australia is working to secure a critical mineral deal with the US, ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s meeting in Washington with President Donald Trump later this month.
Mr Farrell told Sky’s Sunday Agenda, Australia is the “lucky country”, and we want to “ensure that we become a reliable supplier of critical minerals to the rest of the world”.
“We’ve got vast resources of the critical minerals that the world is going to need to decarbonise, to build data centres, to process AI, and all of the things that critical minerals are going to be crucial in.
“What we don’t always have, of course, is the financial resources to extract those minerals,” he said.
“And so what the Australian government has been trying to do in recent years is to ensure that we’ve got partners with us to extract those minerals, and we’ve been talking to the Europeans.”
Mr Farrell added Australia is seeing “wonderful opportunities”, ahead of discussions with the European Trade Minister.
Minister for Trade and Tourism of Australia, Senator Don Farrell says Australia is in the “golden age” in critical minerals. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
Mr Farrell would not be drawn on a $1.2 billion plan. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
“In fact, I’ve often described it as a golden age for critical minerals,” he said.
“Two weeks ago, I was with the premier of South Australia at Roxby Downs.
“We were kilometres underground, and we announced the doubling of Olympic Dam’s copper mining … currently, they produce about 300,000 tons per year.
“That’s going to double over the next few years to 600,000 tons … so we’re very focused on critical minerals.”
Mr Farrell added it’s “no secret” that they have been discussing the issue of critical minerals, since the day Donald Trump became president of the United States.
“We’ve been very public about that … we would like to have an agreement on critical minerals, as we’ve got with the Europeans, with the United States … there’s no secrets about that.
“Just when that agreement might be reached, I’m not going to predict those things … these things always take a lot longer to do than you’d like them to.”
Agenda host Andrew Clennell quipped back: “one of these days … next Monday perhaps?”
When further asked about how a critical minerals strategic reserve might work, Mr Farrell said he will leave that to the resources minister, Madeleine King.
“That’s her space, and I’m not going to step into her space. But I can say we value our ability to sell these products to the rest of the world and that’s what we’re going to do.”
Australia ‘scrambling’ to get minerals deal
Meanwhile, Nationals leader David Littleproud was asked about Australia’s critical minerals export deal in the wake of Donald Trump’s China tariffs on Sunday.
He criticised Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for not having already held a White House meeting with the US President.
“I would have thought that Anthony Albanese would have found himself in the White House long before now to not only talk about AUKUS, but trade,” he told Today.
“We hold some of the aces, and the fact that we’re now scrambling speaks volumes about the level of relationship that not only Anthony Albanese has, but Kevin Rudd has, in Washington.
“We want Australia to succeed, but we actually have to be honest with ourselves that for us to take this long, such an enriched relationship that we’ve had for so many generations, for us to struggle to get a meeting not only on trade but on, more importantly, strategic defence, I just think something’s not right. “
Questioned over the fact a meeting had been locked in, Mr Littleproud accused the government of “scrambling to try and piece some sort of deal together on resources”.
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Further Reading:
14-Oct-2025: https://smallcaps.com.au/australia-establish-strategic-critical-minerals-reserve-global-trade-tensions-rise/
12-Oct-2025: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-told-to-move-faster-on-critical-minerals-stockpile-20251012-p5n1uh
So I'm thinking it's mostly that. On top of that however, you've got all sorts of commodities (mining) stocks running very hard right now. For instance have a look at the charts of MI6 (gold) and FFM (copper) - both project developers - at the larger end (producers) there's SFR (copper), and a heap in the gold space that have run hard too.
This AFR article is particularly interesting @Saiton - there's a direct quote from ARU's MD Darryl Cuzzubbo about this near the end of the article (which I've placed in bold type) and that's followed by comments about global Cobalt supply and demand (i.e. relates to COB):
Albanese told to move faster on critical minerals stockpile
by Peter Ker and Michael Read
Oct 12, 2025 – 6.19pm
Miners have told the Albanese government to move faster on creating a critical minerals stockpile amid concerns waiting until late 2026 to enact the $1.2 billion scheme would give foreign rivals a chance to bypass Australian producers.
The critical minerals “strategic reserve” is designed to break China’s dominance of the metals needed for defence and decarbonisation applications, and miners have been told in the past week that a financial instrument called a “contract for difference” could be the mechanism the government uses to set a “floor price” for rare earths.
A Lynas Rare Earths processing plant in Kalgoorlie. Bloomberg
The strategic reserve will be high on the agenda when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets US President Donald Trump in Washington later this month, with Resources Minister Madeleine King potentially set to join the trip.
The first minerals protected by the reserve are likely to be rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are 70 per cent supplied by China. Two other rare earth elements – terbium and dysprosium – needed for defence uses such as building fighter jets are almost 100 per cent supplied by China.
Beijing placed extra curbs on supply of those minerals last week, intensifying a trade war with the US, which responded with threats to increase tariffs on Chinese products.
Against that backdrop, Albanese is expected to lobby Trump by arguing that Australia’s critical minerals strategic reserve can be a reliable, non-Chinese source of rare earths for the US, and thereby soothing tensions between the two nations over tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Design of the strategic reserve is still underway. Miners told a consultation meeting, run by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet earlier this month, that a plan to introduce the scheme shortly before Christmas 2026 was too slow, according to people in the meeting who spoke on condition of anonymity to convey details of the closed-door meeting.
The miners fear that waiting until late 2026 to enact the scheme could allow a rival mining nation to steal a march on Australia as the supplier of choice to defence partners such as Japan, South Korea and the United States.
Some cabinet ministers are also keen to move faster and want to announce the key design features – such as the floor price mechanism – this year, before attempting to legislate the reserve in mid-2026.
The timing of the strategic reserve details announcement is significant for Iluka Resources, which is relying on a $1.6 billion federal loan to build a rare earths refinery at Eneabba in Western Australia.
Iluka can only draw down on the final $400 million increment of the $1.6 billion once it has signed offtake agreements with customers that meet the satisfaction of the federal government.
Finalising those offtake agreements will be easier once key aspects of the strategic reserve are known, such as the floor price mechanism.
While the floor price will likely be about $US110 per kilogram for neodymium and praseodymium – that price represents the floor price proposed by US government agencies in support deals with American miners – it is unclear what mechanism will be used to set it.
Industry consultation meetings in the past week heard that financial derivatives known as “contracts for difference” could be the mechanism.
A contract for difference (CFD) allows investors to bet on the trajectory of an asset price without taking physical ownership of the asset.
If an Australian miner struck a contract price with a customer that was below the “floor price”, a government-issued CFD could result in the taxpayer effectively topping up the miner’s revenue to the agreed floor price.
But a CFD could also result in taxpayers sharing the benefits if Australian miners strike contracts to sell rare earths to customers at prices above the floor.
Miners believe a separate floor price may be required for dysprosium and terbium.
Miners have also discussed a mechanism where the government would strike bilateral agreements with allied nations that would guarantee a certain volume of Australian rare earths are sold to those nations.
Trade Minister Don Farrell says a deal will be reached with the US “one of these days”. Dominic Lorrimer
Miners and customers from the two nations would be given a time period and price floor around which to strike commercial deals to supply the volumes agreed at government level, with the Australian government only needing to intervene in the market if Australian miners are unable to strike the supply agreements.
Trade Minister Don Farrell said it was no secret Australia would like to strike a critical minerals agreement with the US.
“We’ve been discussing the issue of critical minerals from, I think, the day Donald Trump became president of the United States,” he said.
“Just when that agreement might be reached, I’m not going to predict those things. These things always take a lot longer to do than you’d like them to do, but I’m sure that one of these days we will reach an agreement with the United States.”
While Australia had abundant critical minerals, Farrell said local businesses did not always have the financial resources to extract them, adding he had also discussed the subject with the Japanese, the Koreans and the Europeans.
“The world needs the critical minerals that Australia is lucky enough to have, and so all of our focus has been on ensuring firstly that we can extract these minerals, and secondly that we can find buyers for them.”
Arafura Rare Earths is developing the Nolans mine and refinery near Alice Springs and managing director Darryl Cuzzubbo said the strategic reserve would underline Australia’s role in solving allied nations’ supply challenges.
“Australia is a ready-made solution to provide an independent rare earth supply to the world’s manufacturing hubs and the critical minerals strategic reserve further underlines that,” Cuzzubbo said.
The strategic reserve could include other minerals like lithium, tungsten or antimony, however miners in those sectors are understood to be less united than the rare earths industry over how the government should intervene in markets, if at all.
China is not the only nation choking supply of critical minerals; the Democratic Republic of Congo has supplied close to 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt over the past decade, but it has halted exports over the past eight months in a bid to cure low prices for the metal.
Cobalt is used alongside nickel and manganese in the cathodes of the batteries that power more than half the world’s electric vehicles, particularly for high performance electric vehicles like Teslas.
In a statement to Bloomberg on Saturday, the Congolese government said cobalt export volumes in 2026 and 2027 would be less than half the volumes shipped out of the African nation in 2024.
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Source: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-told-to-move-faster-on-critical-minerals-stockpile-20251012-p5n1uh
I'll also add that it's important to note that these discussions are not just about the Feds here putting millions (potentially billions) of dollars into a handful of companies to help them develop their mines (which is a bit like picking winners and is likely to cop some significant negative feedback/backlash from those who miss out) but also that they are discussing putting in floor prices for stuff like Rare Earths and potentially lithium and other critical minerals so that ALL miners of those particular minerals/metals who are Australian owned and operating here in Australia can be confident that the price of what they plan to produce won't fall below a certain level because the Australian Federal Government will use taxpayers money to buy at those "floor prices" if global prices fall below those levels.
But which minerals and metals are going to get these floor prices put in place by the Australian Fed Gov is still not clear - Rare Earths (REEs/REOs) looks like it's the frontrunner - and REE/REO stocks are moving on that assumption I reckon.
Presumably the government doesn't have the capacity to stockpile thousands of tonnes of this stuff, so they may end up having to sell it at a loss in that scenario, but the whole idea is to give mine financiers (funding providers) the confidence to back projects where future commodity prices are not very predictable, particulary with minerals that are predominantly produced in or controlled by China.
It makes sense on a national strategic level in that securing the stuff we need to build the stuff we are going to require in the future makes a lot of sense, however exactly how it will work is still not entirely clear. Even just having this as a "plan" at this point might score us some brownie points in Washington. We shall see.