0354 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' outlook is becoming increasingly unclear to Macquarie analysts due to changing dining habits and China's attempt to rein in excess among its civil servants. They tell clients in a note that two thirds of Treasury's prestigious Penfolds wine is consumed in Asia, with China accounting for the majority. They say that a government ban on large-scale banquets and alcohol consumption by civil servants is weighing on demand for Penfolds, while the broader industry is contending with a shift away from restaurant dining. It's hard to become more positive without a strategy update from the new CEO, they add. Macquarie cuts its target price by 20% to A$6.40 and stays neutral. Shares are up 2.0% at A$6.05. ([email protected])

0346 GMT - Catapult Sport's latest acquisition looks reasonably priced to its bulls at UBS. The investment bank's analysts unpack the purchase price, noting that the upfront US$46 million cash payment the sports-tech provider will pay for Impect represents 5.6 times its sales. They tell clients in a note that the subsequent US$32 million in shares and US$12 million in potential earnout equity on offer over the next four years lock in Impect's founders and motivate their performance. The UBS analysts see the key questions being how Catapult can integrate Impect's scouting capabilities and enable the Australia-listed company to better compete with market leader Hudl. UBS has a last-published buy rating and A$7.00 target price on the stock, which is up 2.2% at A$7.40. ([email protected])

0340 GMT - ANZ's bears at UBS think that the Australian lender's fiscal 2028 revenue needs about A$2.1 billion above their current forecast if it is to meet its CEO's cost-to-income aspirations. UBS analysts tell clients in a note that they currently expect a fiscal 2028 cost-to-income ratio of about 49%, well ahead of CEO Nuno Matos's target of about 45%. The analysts reckon that the stock is trading at 15.4 times earnings on a two-year forward basis, which they say is three standard deviations ahead of its historical average. They raise their earnings forecasts and lift their target price by 13% to A$30.00 but maintain a sell rating. Shares are down 0.4% at A$35.87. ([email protected])

0317 GMT - Baby Bunting's bull at Citi reckons that the baby goods retailer's turnaround will take time despite a slightly better-than-expected trading update. Analyst Sam Teeger reiterates his buy rating on the stock but warns there is still work ahead, with a skew in annual net profit toward the 2H of fiscal 2026 looking larger than anticipated. Nonetheless, he says that an acceleration in normalized like-for-like sales growth compared with the first six weeks of the fiscal year suggests improving underlying trading momentum. Citi has a last-published A$3.04 target price on the stock, which is down 5.1% at A$3.01. ([email protected])

0309 GMT - Rallying gold prices are aiding Rio Tinto's effort to drive down copper unit costs, Citi analysts say in a note. The miner in July revised its annual copper unit cost guidance lower, citing strong production and work to contain expenses. It expects 2025 copper unit costs of US$1.10-US$1.30/pound, down from US$1.30-US$1.50/pound before. The rally in gold, which has surged to record highs, "could provide further tailwinds for unit costs" to be toward the lower end of the new guidance range, the Citi analysts say. Rio Tinto produces gold as a byproduct of copper mining. A rising gold price consequently contributes to higher byproduct credits, which reduce net unit costs in its copper division. Rio Tinto is up 1.5% in Sydney at A$127.12. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0205 GMT - Catapult's bulls at Morgan Stanley see little margin for error for the sports-analytics software provider following its latest acquisition. The MS analysts tell clients in a note that Impect's price tag means it is crucial for the scouting-tech platform to keep generating free cash flow and accelerating annualized contract value under Catapult's ownership. They expect Impect to be seamlessly integrated and to expand Catapult's offering to customers. Scrutiny on Catapult's margins and free cash flow is likely at November's first-half profit announcement, the MS team adds. MS raises its target price by 32% to A$7.90 and stays overweight on the stock, which is up 3.5% at A$7.49. ([email protected])

0115 GMT - Barclays reckons Rio Tinto could narrowly miss 2025 Pilbara iron-ore shipment guidance. In a note, its analysts highlight continuing maintenance at the operations through 4Q. They reckon 3Q shipments "were a touch weak" and say reaching the bottom end of Rio's 323 million-338 million ton guidance will take the highest shipments since 4Q 2020. The stock is up 2.3% in Sydney at A$128.12. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0100 GMT - There are no real surprises in Rio Tinto's first production result under new CEO Simon Trott, Jefferies analysts say in a note. Strength in the Pilbara outweighs weakness in its Iron Ore Company of Canada business, they say. Although, "management noted a strong 4Q performance would be needed in the Pilbara to reach the lower end of the guidance range." Rio Tinto's bauxite business continues to perform strongly, while its copper operations were impacted in 3Q by planned maintenance, they add. The analysts reiterate a hold rating on Rio. They say the stock is relatively inexpensive and "would expect Rio's shares to benefit in absolute terms from the current mining sector tailwinds." The stock is up 3.1% in Sydney at A$129.11. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0036 GMT - Rio Tinto's 3Q iron-ore shipments and copper output are broadly in line with expectations, say RBC Capital Markets analysts Kaan Peker and Ben Davis. Output at Escondida is stronger than anticipated, which bodes well for joint-venture partner BHP, they say. They highlight Rio's bauxite guidance upgrade, although they say its impact is unlikely to materially shift consensus estimates. "On iron ore, despite lower grade the Pilbara blend grade, the SP10 accounted for 9% of shipments" which "suggests some risk to price realization," they add. Rio Tinto is up 3.9% at A$130.06. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2215 GMT - Precinct Properties NZ's decision to raise up to NZ$310 million of equity looks opportunistic to Macquarie. Still, the bank says it enables Precinct to maximize returns on its property pipeline and potentially cut gearing over the medium to long term. Precinct plans to use some of the proceeds to fund a NZ$201 million student accommodation building at 256 Queen Street in Auckland. Macquarie thinks returns on that project look solid. It retains an outperform call on Precinct, and raises its price target by 1.5% to NZ$1.36/share. Precinct is down 4.5% at NZ$1.27 today following the lifting of a trading halt to allow the equity raising to take place. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2211 GMT - Australian office REITS are being marked down too far, according to Macquarie. Office values have fallen some 20% from a peak in 2Q of 2022. Macquarie believes there is limited downside risk to book values, citing stability in market data and with the spread to real bonds around the long-run average. "Given this, we believe the falls implied in share prices are too great, and therefore this presents an attractive entry point," Macquarie says. It has outperform calls on Dexus and Mirvac for "their office exposure in our preferred precincts, where the fundamental outlook is more favorable." Dexus is down 34% since April 2022. Mirvac is down 5.4% over the same period. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2150 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' new CEO could put the Australian vintner on a path to a break up, suggests Jefferies. Sam Fischer is due to start as CEO on Oct. 27. Analyst Michael Simotas estimates Treasury Wine's net hard asset value at A$8.20/share. "Penfolds brand still very strong and in our scenario analysis we believe a breakup could unlock value, with a U.S. exit the logical first step in our view," Jefferies says. Treasury Wine owns U.S. brands including Daou and Frank Family Vineyards. Jefferies notes Treasury Wine hasn't commented on a potential break up. "A conservative multiple suggests U.S. luxury is worth A$2.6 billion or more than 50% of Treasury Wine's market cap," Jefferies adds. It notes Treasury Wine paid some A$1.9 billion for Daou and Frank alone. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2139 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' decision to scrap its annual earnings guidance doesn't surprise its bull at Jefferies. Analyst Michael Simotas said Treasury Wine's challenges in China were known, as was the disruption of switching distributor in California. Consensus estimates were already lower than Treasury Wine's guidance. Jefferies cuts its FY 2026 Ebits forecast by 10%. Its EPS view falls 12% after Treasury Wine paused its share buyback. Jefferies says the optics of that decision are bad but its balance sheet looks OK. "Too early to call the bottom on earnings but Penfolds is still a very strong brand and there are some green shoots in the U.S., with more than 5% luxury growth outside California," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2136 GMT - Fletcher Building's downbeat trading update prompts Jefferies to pare its FY 2026 Ebit forecast by 10%. Analyst Ramoun Lazar expects 60% of the building materials company's earnings to be made in 2H. Fletcher reported further declines in trading volumes amid subdued market conditions in 1Q. Competitive pressure is also impacting margins as Fletcher seeks to hold share, Jefferies says. Fletcher aims to cut costs by an additional NZ$100 million to cushion profits. Jefferies lowers its price target by 12% to NZ$3.70/share, but retains a buy call. "We re-iterate our view that path to mid-cycle should see a 15-20% uplift in volumes as well as margin expansion (structural cost-out and operating leverage) which sees a meaningful earnings opportunity," the bank says. Fletcher falls 1.2% to NZ$3.18 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires