0142 GMT - While steel spreads dominate short-term sentiment toward BlueScope Steel, Jefferies assumes no improvement in Asian or U.S. spreads ahead, its analysts say in a note. "Growth is all self-help." The analysts expect "sensible investment" by BlueScope will underpin growth, improving mid-cycle earnings in the medium term. "About A$2 billion of growth capex alongside cyclical volume recovery could potentially deliver A$600 million uplift in EBIT through 2030," they say. They also expect cost-cutting efforts to bolster earnings. The analysts reiterate a buy recommendation, saying the stock looks cheap at current multiples. Jefferies has an A$28.00 target on the stock. BlueScope is up 0.2% at A$20.85. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0104 GMT - Bank of Queensland needs to further reprice mortgages or deposits to positively surprise the market on FY 2026 margins, Morgan Stanley analysts reckon. They point out that the Australian regional lender has flagged a further fall in the size of its mortgage portfolio as well as risks to its margin outlook. Accordingly, MS forecasts a 1% on-year fall in total loan volumes and margin contraction of 5 basis points between 2H FY 2025 and 2H FY 2026. They add in a note to clients that they see productivity cost savings rising in FY 2026. MS lifts its target price 1.5% to A$6.80 and stays equal-weight on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$7.25. ([email protected])
0035 GMT - UBS analysts drop their bearish assessment of Computershare on the belief that the stock is increasingly priced for risk that the Trump administration pressures the U.S. Federal Reserve into further interest-rate cuts. Raising their recommendation to neutral from sell, they point out that the Australia-listed share-registry provider has underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark index by 13% since August. They tell clients in a note that likely earnings support from higher transactional revenues and margin-income balances means that the risk-reward outlook has improved. UBS trims its target price by5.3% to A$39.00. Shares are up 1.8% at A$37.25. ([email protected])
0026 GMT - Bank of Queensland's progress on costs, lending margins and retail profitability isn't sufficient to shake its bears at UBS. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that consensus forecasts on lending volumes are too optimistic given recent trends, which include BOQ shifting focus from mortgages to higher-returning commercial lending. However, they point out that about 70% of the lending portfolio is still in home loans. They add that a pivot to segments such as specialist asset finance could help lift return-on-tangible-equity, where a structural impediment remains due to BOQ's size and scale. UBS lifts its target price 3.8% to A$3.75 but maintains a sell rating. Shares are down 0.3% at A$7.20. ([email protected])
0012 GMT - While disappointing, last-minute hiccups at the Barossa natural-gas project in Australia shouldn't be material to Santos's valuation, according to Jarden. Santos said a software issue affecting safety systems on board the BW Opal floating production storage and offloading unit had led to an unplanned shutdown of around two weeks last month. This impacted the rampup of Barossa. Santos lowered its 2025 production guidance to 89-91 million BOE, from 90-95 million BOE. "We were cautious on 2025 guidance going into the quarter, with everything needing to go right in our view to maintain the prior guidance range," analyst Nik Burns says. "We expect consensus earnings downgrades to follow." Santos is down 0.2% at A$6.32. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0002 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's bears at UBS reckon that the likely extension of Matt Comyn's tenure as chief executive would be positive for Australia's largest lender. UBS analysts point out in a note to clients that CBA Chairman Paul O'Malley's comment that the appointment of the next CEO would be a job for his successor as an indication that Comyn is likely to be in the role until at least 2028. They say that this removes some uncertainty and would be viewed positively by the market, given CBA's outperformance of its peers during Comyn's seven-year tenure. UBS has a sell rating and A$125.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.7% at A$167.88. ([email protected])
2356 GMT - Bank of Queensland shakes its bear at Morgans after a stronger-than-expected 2H performance and dividend. Analyst Nathan Lead raises his recommendation to hold from trim, telling clients in a note that the internalization of owner-managed branches drove a 12-basis-point expansion of the net interest margin. This helped propel the 9% on-half rise in revenue, he adds. A dividend of A$0.20 a share was ahead of consensus forecasts, and capital management helps support his hold rating despite the stock trading above his estimated intrinsic value. Morgans raises its target price by 11% to A$6.87. Shares are 1.0% lower at A$7.15. ([email protected])
2355 GMT - Telix Pharmaceuticals' revenue upgrade was a welcome announcement, but largely should have been expected, Canaccord Genuity says. Telix raised its FY 2025 revenue goal to US$800 million-US$820 million. Canaccord says investors should anticipated improved guidance after Telix last month secured transitional pass through, or TPT, status for its Gozellix imaging agent for prostate cancer in the U.S. Analyst Madeleine Williams says her FY 2025 revenue estimate is predicated on Gozellix pushing average selling prices higher in 4Q. "Although (this) says nothing of the additional market share gains or growth that may be expected, particularly in regional outpatient centers in the U.S., where 68Ga scans may be winning," Canaccord says, referring to a method of detecting certain cancers. Canaccord retains a buy call on Telix. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2350 GMT - Another seismic event at 29Metals's Golden Grove base-metals mine raises questions about its long-term operation, Canaccord Genuity says. Operations have been impacted three times during 2025 and at various points historically. This week, 29Metals said seismic activity had restricted access to high-grade zinc deposits at the Xantho Extended area. For Canaccord, this highlights risks as mining fronts move progressively deeper. "This forces 29Metals into lower grade remnant stopes, delivers higher costs due to increased ground support regimes and slower mining (as stresses from mining are redirected)," analyst Timothy Hoff says. Another deposit, Gossan Valley, may underpin volumes at Golden Grove in future. "But without consistent high-grade ore sources we see little opportunity to produce sustainable cash flows at the operation," Canaccord says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2340 GMT - Genesis Minerals' share price hits a record high after the gold miner's 1Q update deepens confidence in its FY outlook. Genesis reported 1Q gold output of 72,878 oz, some 4% higher than forecast by Ord Minnett. Gold sales were some 7% higher than the bank expected, while all-in sustaining costs of A$2,529/oz were 7% lower. "Relative to our estimates, better production was driven by slightly better grades," analyst Paul Kaner says. Ord Minnett had an accumulate call and A$6.50/share price target on Genesis ahead of the update. Genesis is up 4.9% at A$6.82 in early trading today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2332 GMT - Expectations for Orora's share price are relatively low, so it was positive that the drinks container company reiterated annual earnings guidance this week, Macquarie says. Still, Orora did signal a slightly bigger 2H skew for earnings from its Saverglass business. "Industry data points to ongoing challenging demand conditions in spirits/wine markets (e.g., cost of living pressures) which is likely to be echoed by subdued upcoming global spirit company reporting," Macquarie says. It keeps an outperform call on Orora. That reflects a forecast improvement in free cash flow as Orora's capex commitments reduce. Orora is also yet to acquire up to 49.5 million shares as part of its share buyback program. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2301 GMT - Morgans's Nathan Lead joins the ranks of analysts expressing doubt about the viability of ANZ's ambitious return-on-tangible-equity targets. He tells clients in a note that revenues at Australia's fourth-largest bank would need to far surpass those in his forecasts for it to achieve CEO Nuno Matos's targets. He reckons that ANZ would require double-digit annual revenue growth over the three fiscal years through FY30, which he sees as unlikely in a mature and competitive banking market like Australia's. He raises his forecasts but maintains a "trim" recommendation on the stock. Target price rises 14%, to A$32.72. ([email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires