Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 22 Oct 2025 14:50:28
Jimmy
Added a month ago

0226 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts are far more confident on ANZ's cost targets than they are on its revenue ambitions. They tell clients in a note that the Australian lender has many areas in which it can make savings and that it can keep costs broadly flat over the next three years. Most productivity benefits are now reflected in consensus forecasts, they say. However, CEO Nuno Matos's return-on-tangible-equity and cost-to-income targets for fiscal 2028 and beyond require revenue growth that MS thinks is unrealistic due to retail-banking competition. They want evidence of improved operating performance before considering earnings upgrades. MS lifts its target price 11% to A$34.00 and stays equal-weight on the stock, which is up 0.35% at A$37.14. ([email protected])

0139 GMT - Cettire's trading update suggests that the luxury-goods retailer has recently lost some U.S. momentum, E&P analysts say. E&P's Olivier Coulon and Shankari Thayakaran see the retailer's return to positive Ebitda in its fiscal first quarter as a positive, but tell clients in a note that U.S. momentum seems to have slowed since August. They say this shouldn't be a surprise given the U.S. has ended its import-duty exemption on goods valued at under US$800. Overall, the update appears to be marginally ahead of E&P's expectations. E&P has a last-published neutral rating and A$1.18 target price on the stock, which is up 4.1% at A$0.755. ([email protected])

0129 GMT - Macquarie analysts stay cautious on Collins Foods given the Australian fast-food franchiser's slow execution thus far on European expansion plans. The analysts point out that Germany has been flagged as a growth market ever since Collins entered the country in 2016. They tell clients in a note that Collins has just five KFC stores in the country, which has added a total 75 KFC stores across all franchisees in that period. Domestically, they see Collins's main opportunity being in network renewal and menu innovation. However, competition remains intense, they say. Macquarie lifts its target price 32% to A$11.20 and stays neutral on the stock. Shares are down 0.7% at A$10.83. ([email protected])

0057 GMT - Hub24's robust outlook isn't enough to draw out a new bull at Macquarie. Analyst Elizabeth Miliatis sees the stock's relative price-to-earnings multiple as challenging, pointing out in a note to clients that it represents a 6% premium to the five-year average. This keeps Macquarie neutral on the stock even though the wealth platform's September net inflows were ahead of both the investment bank's forecast and consensus. This outperformance relative to expectations lifted funds under management by the end of September to A$122.0 billion, which is 2.4% higher than consensus. Macquarie lifts its target price 0.9% to A$104.20. Shares are down 2.5% at A$115.59. ([email protected])

0009 GMT - The moderation in Judo Capital's 1Q funding costs is a nice surprise for its bull at Citi. Analyst Thomas Strong says funding costs are the biggest surprise in Judo's trading update and he sees them benefiting further from the Australian business lender's previously announced introduction of intermediated savings deposits from next month. Overall, Strong tells clients in a note that the trading update is solid. Judo's reiteration of its annual profit guidance offers guidance around the outlook, he adds. Citi has a buy rating and A$2.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.7% at A$1.75. ([email protected])

0002 GMT - Seek's bull at Citi reckons that the Australian job advertiser's September employment-market report indicates that local volumes are tracking ahead of his forecasts. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that the report shows a continued moderation in the rate of volume decline. He thinks Australia and New Zealand volumes are down by 3% on year so far in the first half of fiscal 2026, which compares with his forecast of a 4% decline. Anyway, he sees yield growth as the key driver of earnings, with stronger ad volumes offering potential upside. Citi has a buy rating and A$31.65 target price on the stock, which is up 0.2% at A$27.73.([email protected])

2327 GMT -- While BHP's iron-ore and copper output dominates investors' attention, Macquarie highlights the mining company's hidden leverage to the gold price. "Using our updated gold deck which utilizes a forward curve across FY 2026-28, we see EPS upgrades of 4% in FY 2027-28 given Escondida and Olympic Dam by-products," says Macquarie. Gold has been on a tear recently, before suffering its largest one-day USD decline on record on Tuesday. Still, at $4087.70/oz, the gold price is up 55.5% in 2025 so far. Macquarie has a neutral call on BHP and raises its price target by 2% to A$43.00. BHP is down 1.3% at A$43.58 today. ([email protected])

2335 GMT - Consensus forecasts for South32 could need to come down as the market hasn't yet fully factored in the likelihood that the miner's Mozal aluminum smelter won't restart, suggests Macquarie. South32 expects to shutter the Mozal smelter in Mozambique in March as it struggles to agree to a new electricity supply deal. It signaled this week that negotiations are at a stalemate. "We see downside risk to consensus," given it still shows production at Mozal happening beyond FY 2026, Macquarie says. It retains a neutral call on South32. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2331 GMT - Buyers of Australian bank stocks are likely in the short term to prefer ANZ's faster-paced strategy over Westpac's more measured approach, Citi analyst Thomas Strong reckons. He thinks that Westpac's strategic plan looks sensible given the lender's requirements, but points out that it requires significant up-front investment and that productivity benefits won't emerge until FY 2028. In contrast, he tells clients in a note that ANZ is kicking off its overhaul with cost reductions. This front-ended approach is likely to find favor with investors, says Strong, who prefers ANZ. Citi has a neutral rating on both stocks. ([email protected])

2322 GMT -- WiseTech Global's bull at Citi thinks that the logistics-software provider's new commercial model could generate between $20 million and $25 million of incremental annual revenue. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that the Australian company is removing volume-based discounts, which means that its largest customers face the biggest price increases. The key to how much incremental revenue WiseTech generates depends upon the pace with which it transitions its customers onto the new model, Ahmed adds. He continues to see WiseTech's implied first-half revenue guidance as conservative. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$121.35 target price on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$83.59. ([email protected])

2253 GMT - Confidence in Bapcor's turnaround is at a new low after the car-parts retailer's downbeat trading update, Jefferies says. That's underscored by Bapcor signaling it has lost market share in its Trade business, which was previously the leading light among its operations. Bapcor has pointed to FY 2026 underlying net profit of A$51 million to A$61 million, some 40% below Jefferies's expectations. Analyst John Campbell says the new guidance implies a 60% fall in underlying EPS since FY 2022. "We maintain the Buy rating notwithstanding a further dent to confidence," Jefferies says. Reasons to stay bullish include the likelihood that Bapcor will sell assets that could eliminate its debt, its still-strong position in Trade, and lower interest rates encouraging more consumer spending. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2233 GMT - Cygnus Metals just got a whole lot more interesting, according to Euroz Hartleys. Canada-listed IAMGOLD has agreed to acquire Northern Superior in a deal worth some US$191 million, expanding its footprint in Quebec. Cygnus owns the Chibougamau copper-gold project nearby. Analyst Kyle De Souza says the IAMGOLD-Northern Superior deal marks "a paradigm change in the reasons for investing" in Cygnus. "We would argue with granted mining permits, a mill and all supporting infrastructure in place Cygnus should carry a multiple of the IAMGOLD/Northern Superior transaction," Euroz Hartleys says. Cygnus owns the only ore-processing mill in the area, which makes the asset attractive to its bigger neighbors. Euroz Hartleys has a speculative "buy" call on Cygnus and A$0.37/share price target. Cygnus ended Tuesday at A$0.14/share. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2140 GMT - Super Retail's CEO pick surprises Jefferies which thought the board would bring in outside expertise. Super Retail has appointed Paul Bradshaw as CEO, effective from Nov. 1. Analyst Michael Simotas says Bradshaw has extensive retail experience, including leading Super Retail's BCF business. "An internal Group CEO appointment comes as a surprise to us," Jefferies says. "While it does reduce the risk of a strategy reset or margin rebase it potentially increases the risk of divisional management turnover." Jefferies retains a hold call on Super Retail, citing the competitive threat from Sports Direct and Bunnings. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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