Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 23 Oct 2025 15:13:55
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0239 GMT - Insurance Australia Group's bulls at UBS continue to see potential for the company to beat its medium-term margin targets. Analysts at the investment bank see the insurer's latest update as a signal that it is performing strongly, with its recent RACQ acquisition surpassing expectations. They reckon that the stock is trading at a 12% discount to its trailing five-year average price-to-earnings ratio, which they tell clients in a note represents compelling value. They think that IAG could beat its margin targets thanks to its conservative catastrophe budgets, and potential upside from resinsurance profit commission. UBS has a A$9.65 target price on the stock, which is up 3.2% at A$8.12. ([email protected])

0226 GMT - REA Group's bears at Jarden continue to see a holding in majority owner News Corp as the best way for investors to gain exposure to the Australian real-estate advertiser. Jarden analysts are underweight on REA ahead of its 1Q update, telling clients in a note that their annual Ebitda forecast is 1.3% lower than consensus. They see 1Q ad volumes falling 8% and wonder if the company might lower annual volume guidance if the soft listings trend continues. They remain overweight on News Corp. They expect strong 1Q momentum at the media conglomerate's professional information services business and 6.8% on-year revenue growth at its Dow Jones unit. Dow Jones & Co. is publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. ([email protected])

0040 GMT - Strong 3Q performances among U.S. insurers are seen by QBE's bulls at Citi as increasing the chances that the Australian company launches a buyback at its annual results announcement. Analysts at the investment bank tell clients in a note that an overall in-line performance in U.S. crop insurance by QBE's U.S. peers, coupled with their better-than-expected catastrophes performance, increases the prospects of a buyback announcement in February. They tip QBE for a potential beat of its December-half catastrophes budget. UBS has a buy rating and A$24.70 target price on QBE shares, which are up 1.0% at A$20.25.([email protected])

0028 GMT - Collins Foods keeps its bulls at Morgan Stanley despite concerns that the fast-food franchiser's expansion in Germany comes with risk. MS analysts keep an overweight recommendation on the stock, but warn clients that execution risk is material. They expect the Australian company to deliver early success as it works toward an ambition of 40-70 new restaurants over the next five years, but remain cautious overall and forecast growth at the lower end of the range. Margins are being restored in Australia, they add. MS lifts its target price 7.5% to A$11.40. Shares are up 1.0% at A$10.915. ([email protected])

2359 GMT - Mirvac's 1Q residential sales were a little underwhelming when compared to Stockland, UBS says. Mirvac reported quarterly sales of 619 lots, down 1% on the final quarter of FY 2025. Still, analyst Cody Shield believes momentum should improve. UBS notes that 60% of residential lots due for release in FY 2026 will be within updated pricing caps for first home buyers. "The lift in leads and step-up in conditional sales of +153 quarter-over-quarter (from 279 to 432) is encouraging," UBS says. "Sales were +17% quarter-over-quarter, including conditional sales, although we will be looking for conversion in 1H." UBS has a neutral call on Mirvac. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2346 GMT - Woodside Energy's Sangomar oil project in Senegal is approaching a key moment that investors need to have eyes on. Sangomar has performed strongly till now. Woodside said yesterday that it averaged 99,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 3Q. But Sangomar is about to pass a production peak, meaning its performance from here will be important. UBS analyst Tom Allen says the unique reservoir structure of Sangomar means there's a wide range of quarter-on-quarter decline rates that could happen. "However, we acknowledge that to date, the asset has outperformed pre-production expectations," UBS says. It forecasts some 25.8 million BOE from Sangomar in 2026. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2342 GMT - Life360's pricing of its new pet-tracking service shows the location-app developer employing it as a loss-leader to grow higher-tier subscription numbers, E&P analyst Annabel Khun says. The rationale for what she says is a significant up-front discount seems clear, with more than 45% of U.S. households owning dogs and 32% owning cats. Khun tells clients in a note that dual-listed Life360 is aiming to convert a much larger proportion of its free users to paying subscribers. The impact is more likely to be positive relative to consensus forecasts, she adds. E&P has a positive recommendation and A$46.57 target price on Life360's Australia-listed shares, which are down 1.2% at A$45.52. ([email protected])

2338 GMT - Luxury car retailer Autosports's deal hunger lures UBS as a bull. Analyst Tim Piper says Autosports could fund deals that contribute around A$250 million of annual revenue from its balance sheet. Doing so could boost EPS by 6-7% using a deal multiple of 5-7X pretax profit. "With greater value now in the share price, we estimate larger, equity funded accretive M&A is also possible," UBS says. Autosports's share price is currently trading on a multiple of 10X pretax profit versus past deals at 6X. Autosports could potentially do deals that contribute some A$1 billion of revenue. "We think vendor availability is sufficient to achieve these M&A targets given high dealer market fragmentation and Autosports's recent track record of acquiring more than A$800 million of revenue since FY23," UBS says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2330 GMT -- Cloud-accounting software provider Xero still needs to invest heavily in its U.S. marketing efforts, according to Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel. He tells clients in a note that the acquisition of bill-pay provider Melio increases the Australia-listed company's scalability in the U.S., but that continued investment is required to deliver on the opportunity there. Samuel doesn't see Melio breaking even until the second half of fiscal 2030 and lowers his Ebitda forecasts for Xero for both the current and next fiscal years. More positively, he thinks Xero is likely to beat its expense-ratio guidance for the current year. Jefferies trims its target price 5.3% to A$167.60 and keeps a hold rating on the stock. Shares are down 1.6% at A$151.93. ([email protected])

2324 GMT - Gold hovering near record highs helps to cement UBS's bullish view of ALS and drives a 27% rise in its price target, to A$26.00/share. Gold is up around 54% in 2025 so far, settling Wednesday at US$4044.40/Oz. Analyst Nathan Reilly says there's already evidence of gold's bull run leading miners to raise more equity, which would help to support ALS's geochemistry testing volumes. "We expect the record gold price will drive a recovery in exploration activity supporting circa 10% EPS growth per annum over the next two years," UBS says. ALS is down 0.1%, at A$21.89 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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