Forum Topics CAA CAA Risk Removed - Anti-dumping

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

During the week Capral announced they were pleased to see the anti-dumping measures for aluminum extrusion continued with "modest" adjustments. The removal of these measures would be a thesis breaker for me given the potential impact to Capral profits. Therefore, a positive for my thesis and removing a key risk especially given my timeline for my Capral investment will likely be less that 5 years from now as it is a value play.

PortfolioPlus
Added a month ago

Agree…this was a big win for Capral. CAA has always traded at way less than net tangible book value which makes its share buy back program attractive.

They clearly have their buy back program set at around a third of daily volume (give or take). The problem I have is understanding the catalysts to rerate this company. Now that it doesn’t pay dividends because the FC’s have been run out, SP increases are the only way to be rewarded. Yes, it’s a solid performer year in year out and it still has a few more years of tax losses to chew up, but where will the catalyst come from? Sure the residential home build market must increase, they might buy a few more small aluminium distribution centres, but given they are the biggest in the industry with circa 25% to 30% of MC,and with the rest being tightly held private companies, maybe a PE buy out is the only way to extract real value.

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