Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 03 Nov 2025 15:00:04
Jimmy
Added a month ago

0357 GMT - Westpac's net interest margin outlook seems a little softer than expected to Jefferies analyst Andrew Lyons. He acknowledges that the Australian bank's management provided only limited additional detail on a call with analysts, but runs through his calculations in a note to clients. He estimates that Westpac's September-quarter net interest margin was 1.79%, once markets and treasury are stripped out. Lyons then assumes a 1 basis-point decline in each quarter of the new fiscal year, and adds a markets and treasury contribution of between 10 and 12 basis points. That implies a fiscal 2026 net interest margin short of 1.90%, compared with the current consensus of 1.91%. Jefferies has a hold rating and a A$34.00 target price on the stock, which is up 2.4% A$39.665. ([email protected])

0344 GMT - Citi analysts reckon Tuas's proposed acquisition of M1 could be approved by Singapore regulators before Christmas. They point to comments by Keppel, the current owner of the M1 telecommunications provider, hoping to complete a sale by the end of the year. They also observe that M1 has reduced the price of some postpaid plans by up to 70%. They tell clients in a note that this shows M1 is already implementing Tuas's value-led strategy to stimulate a turnaround in customer growth. Regulatory approval could come swiftly after the Nov. 7 deadline for submissions on the deal, they say. Citi has a buy rating and A$9.95 target price on Tuas shares, which are up 3.3% at A$7.26. ([email protected])

0342 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's successful growth of its investor-mortgage book is viewed positively by UBS analysts. Regulatory data shows Australia's largest bank grew investor lending at 1.6 times the pace of the overall sector in September. The UBS analysts remind clients in a note that they see investor loans offering better lending economics than those to owner-occupiers. Commonwealth Bank is leaning more heavily toward these borrowers than its major banking rivals, they say. UBS has a last-published sell rating on Commonwealth Bank shares. ([email protected])

0332 GMT - Macquarie analysts reckon the market is too positive on building materials supplier Fletcher Building. The bank's FY 2026 Ebit estimate of NZ$376 million for Fletcher is 7% below the Visible Alpha-compiled mean, they say. "For FY27 the gap is larger at -20%," the analysts write in a note. They reckon New Zealand's residential build rate is well above a sustainable level. The stock of unsold houses in New Zealand is at an 11-year high, they say. Macquarie's target on the stock drops to NZ$1.59/share from NZ$1.67. The analysts expect the stock will "underperform, given predominantly negative catalysts." Fletcher is up 0.9% at NZ$3.29. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0329 GMT - Capstone Copper's 3Q production result is a beat on most metrics, including output, sales and costs, Macquarie analysts say in a note. "There was lots to like," they say. Higher-than-anticipated sales and lower-than-expected costs result in a revenue and earnings beat, say the analysts. One negative is the performance at Pinto Valley, where Capstone had another challenging quarter, they say. Macquarie reiterates its outperform rating, but trims its target on the miner's ASX-listed stock by 4% to A$16.50, citing revisions by the bank to future earnings estimates. Capstone is up 0.2% in Sydney at A$13.78, adding to an 8.5% gain last week. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0325 GMT - Navigator Global Investments' new bulls at UBS reckon the market isn't fully appreciating the Australian alternative assets manager's inorganic growth strategy. Initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating, UBS analysts tell clients in a note that Navigator has clearly articulated its inorganic strategy, which entails taking minority equity stakes in global partner firms. They reckon that growth in total assets under management can support an EPS compound annual growth rate of 10%, which is twice that anticipated by consensus. UBS places a A$3.40 target price on the stock, which is up 7.8% at A$2.685. ([email protected])

0135 GMT - ASX-listed miners could be headed for more gains, fueled by lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, says Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand. Iron-ore prices are also holding above consensus estimates, a tailwind for the stocks, Anand says in a note. MS prefers BHP over Rio Tinto, he says. Mineral Resources is the bank's top iron ore pick, he adds. For base metals exposure, MS likes South32, while for metallurgical coal, Anand highlights Whitehaven. The S&P/ASX 200 materials index is down 0.5% at 19,532.2, but is 21% higher year to date. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0108 GMT - Keppel REIT could benefit from adding a retail presence to its portfolio, OCBC Investment Research's Research team says. The REIT recently proposed acquisition of a 75% interest in Top Ryde City Shopping Centre in Australia, the team notes. The completion of acquisition in 1Q 2026 would mark the REIT's maiden retail asset acquisition, the team says in a research report. OCBC sees increased scope for the REIT to drive its longer-term growth with more retail assets that typically have higher capitalization rates as compared with office assets. OCBC raises the unit's fair value estimate to S$1.00 from S$0.95 with an unchanged hold rating. Units are unchanged at S$1.05. ([email protected])

0043 GMT - Endeavour Group draws out a new bull at Bell Potter following its lackluster share-price performance of recent months. Analyst Baxter Kirk raises his recommendation on the stock to buy from hold, telling clients in a note that recent interest-rate cuts should support retail sales growth. Second-quarter growth should also be assisted by the supply chain disruptions that hit the year-earlier period, he adds. Expectations are low, which he reckons increases the chances of a positive surprise in retail performance. Bell Potter cuts the stock's target price by 5.5% to A$4.30. Shares are down 1.1% at A$3.62. ([email protected])

0035 GMT - Citi analyst Thomas Strong isn't surprised by any of the fresh charges flagged by ANZ for its 2H results. With the bulk of the A$1.1 billion in significant items already been disclosed, Strong reckons that investors will look through the one-off items set to hit the Australian bank's net profit. He tells clients in a note that the A$285 impairment of a stake in PT Panin was unsurprising given the performance of the investment. A A$68 million charge related to the SunCorp Bank migration and a A$78 million goodwill writeoff are consistent with strategy already outlined to the market, Strong adds. CIt has a neutral rating and A$37.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.2% at A$36.73. ([email protected])

0031 GMT - Australian banks should find that better-than-expected deposit margins more than offset any moderation in credit growth if interest rates fall by less than previously anticipated, Macquarie analysts say. Macquarie's in-house economist thinks the Reserve Bank of Australia has finished cutting rates, a view the investment bank's analysts acknowledge could pose some risk to housing-market sentiment. They tell clients in a note that deposit pricing across lenders is mixed. ANZ and Westpac have cut savings rates, but NAB has raised its rates in what the Macquarie analysts see as a potential sign that it needs more funds to back strong credit growth. ([email protected])

0021 GMT - ANZ's 2H result has been partly de-risked, in the view of Morgan Stanley analysts, by the lender's prior announcement of its targets and capital plans. The MS analysts tell clients in a note that with plenty of forward commentary already made public, next week's result announcement will be parsed for revenue and margin trends, short-term expense guidance, institutional performance and capital ratios. They add that the A$1.1 billion in one-off items already detailed by the Australian bank is largely in line with their expectations. MS has an equal-weight rating and A$34.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.4% at A$36.50. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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