Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 20 Nov 2025 15:00:09
Jimmy
Added 2 months ago

0333 GMT - Charter Hall's bull at Citi flags the presence of further upside to the Australian funds manager's upgraded guidance. Analyst Suraj Nebhani points out that the ASX-listed company's guidance for FY 2026 operating EPS of A$0.95 doesn't assume any potential revenue contribution from performance fees. The improved guidance is already well ahead of Nebhani's prior forecast of A$0.917, as well as consensus of A$0.912. This represents 17% on year growth, he adds in a note. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$26.10 target price on the stock, which is up 7.2% at A$23.76. ([email protected])

0138 GMT - Nuix's bulls at Jefferies see a clearer near-term growth path thanks to the intelligence-software provider's fiscal 2026 guidance. Retaining a buy rating on the stock, analysts Jennifer Xu and Wei Sim trim their revenue forecasts by 2%-5% on the annualized contract value guidance but nonetheless welcome the additional clarity it brings. They tell clients in a note that they see ACV as a reliable indicator of revenue growth, and that the A$240 million-A$260 million range is broadly in line with consensus. They think fiscal 2026 Ebitda will grow more quickly than revenue. Target price falls 22% to A$2.50. Shares are up 0.5% at A$1.915. ([email protected])

0129 GMT - UBS raises its targets on Australia's gold stocks after upgrading its metal-price forecasts for the next few years. The bank is now forecasting a gold-price peak next year of US$4,750/oz, up from US$3,900/oz previously. That "is A$7,300/oz for our Aussie miners," UBS analysts say in a note. They upgrade gold miners' estimated earnings for the next three years by 30-60%, and lift price targets by 5%-14% as a result. They say UBS's top picks are unchanged, highlighting buy ratings on Northern Star, Perseus Mining, Genesis Minerals, Ramelius Resources, Regis Resources, Vault Minerals and Bellevue Gold. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0124 GMT - Sonic Healthcare's positive trading update and revised expense guidance should raise consensus profit forecasts, RBC analyst Craig Wong-Pan says. He tells clients in a note that the medical-diagnostics services provider's 17% year-to-date revenue growth is comfortably ahead of his 14% forecast for the full year, as well as the average analyst forecast of 15%. While Sonic has reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance, it has lowered its outlook for depreciation and interest expenses. Wong-Pan reckons that this should drive upgrades of at least 2% to consensus net profit forecasts. RBC has a last-published sector-perform rating and A$28.00 target price on the stock, which is up 4.4% at A$22.44. ([email protected])

0111 GMT - Sigma Healthcare gets a new bull at UBS on the prospect of multiyear double-digit EPS growth. Initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating, analyst Shaun Cousins tells clients that the pharmaceutical supplier's reverse takeover by the Chemist Warehouse retail group has created a capital-light business that justifies its elevated consensus multiple of 46.4X fiscal 2026 earnings. He writes in a note that operating leverage, sourcing and synergies will expand Sigma's underlying EBIT margin from fiscal 2025's pro forma 9.4% to 11.6% by fiscal 2030. UBS places a A$3.40 target price on the stock, which is up 1.0% at A$2.95. ([email protected])

0102 GMT - Catapult Sports' bulls at UBS think that the stock's recent selloff make it more important that the athletic-tech provider's latest acquisition delivers. The investment bank's analysts point out that one of the drivers of the share-price decline was the impact of share-based payments to management of the Impect business acquired by Catapult. They tell clients in a note that Catapult needs the transaction to deliver a return on invested capital in excess of 10%. It also needs to be accretive to Catapult's progress toward hitting the so-called rule-of-40 performance metric, they add. UBS cuts its target price 21% to A$6.70 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is down 0.9% at A$4.42.([email protected])

2354 GMT - BHP's Vicuna joint venture has the potential to boost the miner's copper production by roughly 200,000 metric tons annually, "but will require substantial capital investment to do so," Jefferies analysts say in a note. They estimate it will cost US$10.5 billion-US$14 billion to sequentially develop the Josemaría, Filo del Sol oxides and Filo del Sol sulphides owned by the JV, in which BHP has a 50% stake. The analysts expect first output from 2032 and that the JV will ramp up to a capacity around 450,000 tons by 2043. The development offsets declining production from BHP's existing Chilean assets, they say. However, rising capex will likely weigh on free cash flow and lead to "a downward trend in capital returns between now and FY30," they add.([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2328 GMT -- Technology One gets an upgrade to accumulate from hold at Morgans despite a lower valuation multiple on the market's growing caution toward tech stocks. Analyst James Filius tells clients in a note that he is refreshing valuation multiples in response to the recent paring seen across the sector. Nonetheless, he still values the Australia-listed enterprise-software provider at 38 times Ebitda. Pointing to consistent delivery of 15% annual EPS growth and growing scale in the U.K., Filius says Technology One is a high-quality company with an impressive financial stature. Target price falls 21% to A$34.50. Shares are up 5.9% at A$30.99. ([email protected])

1743 ET -- Catapult Sports' bulls at Jefferies keep a buy rating on the stock, citing synergies from recent acquisitions and its clear progress toward hitting the so-called rule-of-40 benchmark. The investment bank's analysts still see value despite lowering their earnings forecasts on moderated revenue expectations, acquisitions and the impact of management bonuses. They remind clients in a note that all metrics in the sports-tech provider's fiscal 1H result were at least in line with the midpoints of its guidance ranges, and think that momentum is intact. Jefferies lowers target price 13% to A$7.50 on lower market risk appetite. Shares are at A$4.46 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2215 GMT - Crop-chemicals supplier Nufarm's decision to hang on to its Seed Technologies business following a review initially surprised Citi. It had been expecting Nufarm to commit to a sale or closure. "However, Nufarm appears to have taken appropriate measures to turn Seed Technologies around," says analyst William Park. Specifically, that involves focusing more on cost control and lowering capital needs, particularly in Emerging Platforms such as Bio-fuel and Omega-3. Citi says earnings from Omega-3 could surprise, especially if fish oil prices continue to rise. "The fish oil price in November has stepped by 30% versus September and 24% versus October," Citi says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2207 GMT - Crop-chemicals supplier Nufarm has a credible pathway to return gearing to a 2.0x range in FY 2026, from 2.7x a year earlier, Macquarie says. Still, achieving this target is key and Macquarie notes there has been slippage in the past. Nufarm suffered a setback when failing to sell its Seed Technologies business following a review. It appears investors couldn't meet Nufarm's value. "Seeds retention takes away potential near-term catalyst regarding value discovery and balance sheet de-gearing but nor was stock factoring this in," says Macquarie. It retains a neutral call on Nufarm and raises its price target by 8.6% to A$2.77/share. Nufarm ended Wednesday at A$2.37. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2125 GMT - Helloworld's takeover offer for Webjet looks highly compelling to Jefferies, given the current backdrop for travel agents. Helloworld is offering A$0.90/share for the roughly 83% of Webjet that it doesn't already own. Analyst John Campbell highlights that Webjet lacks scale in a flat leisure market. Larger overseas rivals are pushing hard into Australia. Also, consumers in Australia and New Zealand are under pressure and likely to remain so. That will translate to low, if any, growth in total transaction value, says Jefferies. "We struggle to see Webjet being able to reverse the downward trend," Jefferies says. It has a A$0.81/share price target on Webjet. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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