Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 24 Nov 2025 15:00:05
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0350 GMT - BHP's statement that it's no longer considering a combination with Anglo American "lays to rest any further speculation that BHP might pursue" its rival, says Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand. BHP is restricted for six months from making a bid for Anglo, says Anand. That restriction will take BHP past a shareholder vote on a planned merger between Anglo and Canada's Teck, planned for Dec. 9, he says. "However, whether Anglo's merger with Teck would be completed by such time cannot be determined at this point," he adds. In announcing their deal in September, Anglo and Teck said it could take 12 to 18 months to close. Nevertheless, BHP's remarks remove "a key overhang" for its stock, says Anand. MS has an overweight rating and A$48.00 target. BHP is little changed at A$40.38. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0245 GMT - Citi analyst Thomas Strong gives a firm "no" to anyone wondering whether it's time to become more positive on Commonwealth Bank. He acknowledges that shares in Australia's largest bank have significantly underperformed relative to peers over 2025, but expects this to continue. Strong points out in a note to clients that Commonwealth was trading at a historically high 90% premium to its major rivals at the start of the year, compared with 15%-20% pre-Covid. That's now down to about 50%. However, he thinks that earnings momentum at ANZ, and to a lesser extent at Westpac, will keep up the pressure on Commonwealth's relative performance. Strong's order of preference for Australian banks is: ANZ, Westpac, NAB and Commonwealth. ([email protected])

0239 GMT - Autosports Group's bulls at UBS reckon the vehicle retailer's capacity for further acquisitions make it look especially compelling. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that there is potential for ASG to add to the recent acquisition of 10 dealerships in Victoria state, and flag its track record of finding targets that are accretive on an EPS basis. ASG is trading at 17 times one-year forward earnings, which they point out represents a significant discount to rival Eagers Automotive, which they see at 27X. ASG's 1H profit guidance plus the Victoria state acquisition implies a full-year result above consensus prior to the end of last week, they add. UBS lifts its target price by 14% to A$4.80 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 2.5% at A$4.44. ([email protected])

0151 GMT - Genesis Capital and Washington H. Soul Pattinson's initial bid approach for Monash IVF looks opportunistic to Ord Minnett. But it thinks Monash IVF's shareholders will be keen for a deal to get done, given the near-term outlook for the in vitro fertilization specialist's business. Monash IVF has rejected the consortium's A$0.80/share approach. "We expect an offer price of more than A$1.00/share is more likely to get a deal done," analyst Tom Godfrey says. "For Monash IVF to achieve a stronger outcome, it likely needs to find an interloper (akin to the Virtus battle between BGH and CapVest)." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0039 GMT - Negative U.S. retail sales volumes seem consistent with Brambles's fiscal 2026 volume guidance, UBS analysts say. They tell clients in a note that U.S. retailers' inventory levels continued to rise over the September quarter, with U.S. sales of food and home-and-personal-care items both down on a year earlier. They warn that continuing sales softness could lead to further inventory growth. This would slow demand for Brambles's pallets, and the speed with which they circulate through supply chains. The analysts say data tally with company guidance for slow like-for-like fiscal 2026 volume momentum, particularly in the first half. UBS has a neutral rating and A$25.65 target price on the stock, which is up 1.2% at A$23.53. ([email protected])

0024 GMT - Technology One keeps its bulls at UBS despite a cut to the enterprise-software provider's earnings multiple on local tech stocks' recent derating. The investment bank's analysts slash their cash Ebitda multiple to 50X from 66X, pointing to what they say is a correction in Australia-listed tech and software stocks. Outside of that, little changes following the company's annual result announcement. The UBS analysts trim their annualized recurring revenue forecasts through fiscal 2028 but their pretax profit forecasts are unchanged. They say in a note that their conviction in Technology One's growth story has been reaffirmed. UBS cuts its target price 13% to A$38.70. ([email protected])

0012 GMT - Reece's stronger-than-expected U.S. revenue allows the Australian plumbing-supplies provider to shake its bears at Macquarie. The investment bank's analysts raise their recommendation on the stock to neutral from underperform, telling clients in a note that the U.S. appears to be the driver of Reece's 8% revenue growth in 1Q, which beat their forecast of zero growth. They think that stabilizing sales and store openings are supporting performance. The U.S. expansion points to management's confidence in the business model, they add. Macquarie raises its target price by 8.9% to A$11.00. Shares are up 9.3% at A$12.00. ([email protected])

2335 GMT - Qube's bull at Ord Minnett wouldn't be surprised to see Macquarie Asset Management face rival interest for control of the Australian logistics operator. Pointing to recent corporate activity by global shipping lines and increased interest in transport assets from global infrastructure funds, analyst Ian Munro sees some probability of interest from a third party. He tells clients in a note that MAM's A$5.20-a-share proposal, which implies an enterprise value for Qube of about A$11.6 billion, implies premium valuation multiples relative to sector peers. Ord Minnett's buy rating and A$4.52 target price are under review. Shares are up 19% at A$4.835. ([email protected])

2322 GMT - UBS cuts its price target on Coronado Global Resources by 27% and retains a sell call as it waits for metallurgical coal markets to improve, which would ease pressure on the miner's balance sheet. Analyst Lachlan Shaw says the bearish stock call rests on the subdued near-term outlook for coal used in steelmaking. It also reflects heightened caution around more near-term cost reduction measures. "The recent agreements with Stanwell are expected to provide adequate liquidity to mitigate liquidation risks, but a much sought after improvement in met coal markets is needed to preserve longer-term equity value," UBS says. Where met coal prices improve significantly, fair value could rise by up to A$0.40/share, it says. Coronado ended last week at A$0.25, above UBS's new A$0.19/share price target. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2248 GMT - Costume jewelry retailer Lovisa retains Citi as a bull heading into the Christmas trading season. Analyst Sam Teeger says part of his bullish thesis is an assumption that Lovisa's sales performance will improve compared to a year ago. "We still think this will occur but the benefits we anticipated from Claire's disruption and the Lovisa store refurbishments may take longer than expected," Citi says. Some Claire's stores are closing in the U.S., creating a short-term headwind due to clearance activity, but Citi thinks this will progressively ease. Also, Lovisa's Series 5 store refurbishment program seems to be tracking slower than expected. "But it seems like the speed will increase from here," Citi says. Citi cuts its price target by 9.5% to A$38.45/Share. Lovisa ended last week at A$30.02.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2240 GMT - Morgan Stanley switches from being a bull to a bear on footwear retailer Accent following a trading update that signaled worsening retail trends and margin pressure. Like-for-like sales have turned negative, and heightened promotional activity is weighing on margins. MS notes the demand in the lifestyle category remains fragile. Accent on Friday said it now expects 1H Ebit of A$55 million-A$60 million. That compares with prior guidance for a result roughly in line with the A$80.7 million achieved a year ago. "The meaningful downgrade shortly after August and ahead of the key sales season is cause for concern," analyst Mac Ross says. MS downgrades Accent to underweight, from overweight, and cuts its price target by 47% to A$0.95/share. Accent ended last week at A$1.015. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2226 GMT - Citi had highlighted risks of a weak trading snapshot from Accent alongside its annual shareholder meeting. But it wasn't expected one this bad. "In our view, Accent has a lot of work to do to regain institutional investor interest," analyst Sam Teeger says. Accent on Friday said it now expects 1H Ebit of A$55 million-A$60 million. That compares with prior guidance for a result roughly in line with the A$80.7 million achieved a year ago. Accent's guidance also assumes sales and margins improve in 2H. But that seems difficult to bank on, Citi says. "There's some evidence of greenshoots with October like-for-like sales improving to +0.4%, but we don't think the market is going to place any weight on this," Citi adds. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2215 GMT - Costume jewelry retailer Lovisa's latest snapshot of trading has Jefferies assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on sales. Lovisa said same-store sales rose by 3.5% in the first 20 weeks of FY 2026. Analyst John Campbell estimates the U.S. represents 24% of Lovisa's sales. Most of Lovisa's product into the U.S. is sourced from Asia, especially from China. "If we assume an average tariff rate imposed on 100% of U.S. sales of 15%, this suggests FY 2026 same-store sales would have to be 3.5% just for the impact of tariffs," Jefferies says. "On this basis, it suggests first 20 weeks of FY 2026 have seen 0% same-store sales and weeks 9-20 low-single-digit negative same-store sales." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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