Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk
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Added a month ago

0145 GMT - QBE Insurance keeps its bulls at UBS after sustaining its earnings outlook despite the backdrop of a softening premium-rate cycle. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that the Australian company's fiscal 2026 earnings outlook is well underpinned by factors including stabilizing investment yields and a new A$450 million share buyback. QBE's 92.5% combined operating ratio guidance is in line with consensus, they add. UBS trims its target price by 2.2% to A$24.15 and keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are up 1.8% at A$19.39. ([email protected])

0037 GMT - QBE Insurance needs to give clear guidance on reserve releases to help shore up investor confidence, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrei Stadnik. He acknowledges that the Australian company's expectation of modest 2025 reserve releases is a clear positive, but thinks that some investors will be disappointed that it isn't sharing the benefit of lower catastrophe costs with shareholders. Stadnik wonders whether QBE is being too conservative in its approach. He likes the announcement of a A$450 million buyback but says reserve-release guidance is a must. MS has a last-published overweight recommendation and A$23.50 target price on the stock, which is up 1.4% at A$19.31. ([email protected])

0020 GMT - Temple & Webster shakes off its bears at UBS on the savage selloff that followed the online furniture retailer's disappointing sales update. Analysts at the investment bank raise their recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell, pointing out that the stock had a very elevated earnings multiple before its 32% one-day fall. They believe that the slowdown in the Australian operator's sales growth stems from a softening in broader consumer demand rather than any company-specific factors. Market expectations now seem much more reasonable to UBS analysts. UBS cuts its target price by 16% to A$14.80. Shares are up 3.25% at A$14.92. ([email protected])

0008 GMT - Harvey Norman is downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS, where analysts see risk from the impact of potential interest-rate rises. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that the home-goods retailer's recent share-price gains and concern that the Reserve Bank could soon start raising interest rates--a policy switch that would likely hit consumer sentiments and household spending--means risk-reward now looks more balanced. The UBS view is that consumers are already worried about the potential for higher rates, and the analysts reckon that Harvey Norman is more exposed than rival JB Hi-Fi. UBS trims its target price 3.2% to A$7.50. Shares are down 1.3% at A$6.88. ([email protected])

2318 GMT - Corporate Travel Management's problems are far worse and more widespread than RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen had expected. Chen tells clients in a note that CTM previously said that only its Europe operation was affected but has now disclosed that its Australia and New Zealand business has issues. He reckons that the Australian company may need to restate and even refund up to a third of its European revenues for the past three years. This could have a significant cash impact, he adds. RBC has a last-published sector perform rating and A$15.00 target price on the stock, which last traded in August at A$16.07. ([email protected])

2223 GMT - It's safe to say that marine and defense equipment maker Veem hasn't made a great start to FY 2026, Ord Minnett says. Veem signaled 1H revenue of A$24 million-A$$26 million. At the midpoint, this would be the lowest half-year revenue in more than five years. Veem also said its 1H Ebitda could be as much as a A$1 million loss. "While the company continues to anticipate a strong 2H it will be difficult for Veem to recover sufficiently to meet our previous FY 2026 forecasts," analyst John Lawlor says. Ord Minnett cuts its annual Ebitda forecast by 43% to A$6.5 million. Its price target falls 31% to A$1.20/share. Veem ended Thursday at A$1.155. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2212 GMT - An oversupply of rare-earths oxides is coming as separation plants outpace production of magnets, says Ord Minnett. The U.S. is supporting new magnet plants with government loans. "We expect ex-China magnet capacity to grow from 15,000 tons per annum now to 71,000 tons/annum by 2030," analyst Matthew Hope says. That would represent demand of 21,000 tons of neodymium-praseodymium and 850 tons of dysprosium. However, support for separation plants is accelerating to counter China's monopoly on exports. "The unrestrained buildout of separation plants is likely to boost NdPr capacity by over 18,000 tons/annum to 42,000 tons/annum to 2030," Ord Minnett says. "It appears that NdPr and DyTb will both be oversupplied relative to magnet demand by 1.5-2.0x in 2030." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2157 GMT - Engineering contractor NRW Holdings's earnings and revenue guidance upgrade doesn't surprise Citi. NRW now expects FY 2026 revenue of A$4.1 billion and underlying Ebita of A$260 million-A$265 million. Citi says the guidance shouldn't shock as NRW has already secured A$3.9 billion of revenue for FY 2026. That's an increase of A$100 million since it announced a deal to buy Fredon Industries in September. Analyst William Park also points to NRW's solid active tender balance, which is supported by an elevated bid-win rate. Citi forecasts annual revenue of A$4.1 billion and Ebita of A$262 million. It rates NRW a buy and lifts its price target by 8.2% to A$5.95/share. NRW ended Thursday at A$5.30. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2144 GMT - Suncorp's catastrophe allowance is less robust than IAG's, meaning it has less protection in adverse market conditions, signals Citi. "In our view, this highlights a key advantage for IAG versus Suncorp," analyst Nigel Pittaway says. After five months of FY 2026, Suncorp's perils costs are already 65-70% of its annual natural hazards allowance. That is despite progress in increasing hazards allowance over the years, Citi says. "We now allow for Suncorp to overrun its 1H hazards allowance even though we allow for its actual cost to be below its allowance for the remainder of the year as dropdowns etc kick in," Citi says. It retains a neutral call on the stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2137 GMT - Nick Scali adds a bull in Bell Potter, which is enthused by the furniture retailer's opportunity in the U.K. Bell Potter thinks Nick Scali could ultimately have 60 stores in the U.K., three times its current footprint. "As Nick Scali U.K. revenues grow over the next 7+ years, we expect continuing earnings leverage over its cost base which should see a stronger uplift in earnings over the longer term," analyst Chami Ratnapala says. Bell Potter starts coverage of Nick Scali at buy, with a A$27.00/share price target. Nick Scali ended Thursday at A$23.38. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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