0353 GMT - Tuas's bull at Citi sees earnings risks tilted toward the upside after the Singapore-focused telecommunications provider's stronger-than-expected 1Q update. Analyst William Park tells clients in a note that growth in both mobile and broadband subscriptions for the three months through October exceeded expectations, helped by brand awareness stemming from Tuas's acquisition of M1. A high proportion of these new users could be switching from providers other than M1, he adds. At the same time, Park points out that underlying margins are expanding. Park keeps his forecasts largely unchanged for now but sees potential for beats, not least with meaningful synergies to come from M1. Citi maintains a buy rating and A$9.95 target price on the stock, which is down 1.8% at A$6.68. ([email protected])

0303 GMT - IDP Education's near-term earnings could be at risk as Australian student visa grants decline, Macquarie analysts warn. They note that October university visa grants in Australia fell 28% from a year earlier, twice the pace of the annual decline seen in September. They still think that foreign student demand will eventually return to key developed markets, which supports their long-term thesis on the student-placement provider, but concede that near-term EPS could suffer. Looking to IDP's other key markets, they see signs of recovering visa volumes in Canada, and modest growth in the U.K. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and A$6.00 target price on the stock, which is down 2.0% at A$5.045. ([email protected])

0256 GMT - Sims's lifecycle services business, or SLS, was the standout at the metal recycler's New Zealand investor day, say UBS analysts. "Importantly, SLS is tied to the growing capex spend of hyperscalers, with the ability to ramp up as required whilst maintaining a capital light business model." That results in significant earnings and cash flow operating leverage, they say. There are questions, though, about both the sustainability of price increases and the likelihood of increased competition or customers taking the work in-house, say the analysts. "We think SLS has the potential to be a thesis changer for Sims and is now an undisputable part of the earnings profile going forward, albeit with growth rate assumptions that will vary widely amongst consensus and buyside expectations." ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0250 GMT - BlueScope Steel is unlikely to enjoy a recovery in New Zealand market conditions until FY 2027, say UBS analysts Will Wilson and Nathan Reilly. "Conditions are not getting worse, but also not any better and with an election expected in 2026, we do not expect any underlying demand improvement until FY27," the analysts say in a note. That said, a shift to electric arc furnace production sets BlueScope's business there "up for sustained success," say Wilson and Reilly. BlueScope has been losing money in New Zealand and the new EAF model will give it better flexibility to reduce production in line with demand, they say. UBS reiterates a buy rating and raises its target on BlueScope to A$27.50 from A$26.50. The stock is down 0.9% at A$24.13. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0227 GMT - Upside for Metcash's hardware business looks more limited by reduced expectations for Australian interest-rate cuts, according to Macquarie analysts. They tell clients in a note that demand at the supermarket supplier's hardware business, which includes the Total Tools retail chain, could be constrained by rates policy. They observe that hotter-than-expected inflation has implications for local interest rates, which economists had previously expected to fall further. Macquarie still sees hardware as the key source of earnings and valuation upside. The bank cuts its target price by 12.5% to A$3.50 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock, which is flat at A$3.36. ([email protected])

0154 GMT - Beach Energy now looks more overvalued than Macquarie had previously thought, assuming it doesn't make a big splash with M&A. Macquarie says more delays at Beach's Waitsia Stage 2 project in Western Australia means FY 2026 production is likely around 20.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. That's at the low end of Beach's guidance of 19.7 million-22.0 million BOE. This contributes to Macquarie cutting its FY 2026 EPS forecast by 29% and by an additional 26% in FY 2027. Macquarie's price target falls 12% to A$0.80/share on higher costs. Beach is up 1.3% at A$1.195 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0151 GMT - Australian stocks are likely to rise in December, according to Macquarie. It notes that the positive seasonality usually seen in November didn't happen this year. That's partly due to the extended U.S. government shutdown, Macquarie says. "The hawkish shift from the Fed was also a factor, but with another Fed cut expected in December, the end of quantitative tightening and the shutdown over, we think we should see a year-end rally on the ASX," Macquarie says. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index is up around 5% so far this year. On Tuesday, it is up 0.3% at 8587.2. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0135 GMT - Expectations for retailer Metcash's earnings in FY 2027 look too high to Citi. "The starting point is lower with material downgrades in Liquor and Hardware," says analyst Adrian Lemme. Metcash's earnings should benefit from the reversal of A$12 million of one-off strategy and implementation costs in FY 2027. Still, Citi thinks Metcash's Hardware division won't recover as quickly as the market hopes. That's because detached housing approvals are now tracking flat year-over-year, and the interest rate outlook appears neutral at best. "We lower our net profit forecasts by 4% over FY 2026-FY 2028," Citi says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0133 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts see potential for consensus forecasts for Treasury Wine Estates to further fall following the Australian producer's mid-December market update. Treasury Wine's new CEO is scheduled to outline his initial observations and give a progress report on key markets, including the U.S. and China. With Treasury Wine's Americas business having already driven at least US$450 million in writedowns in the current fiscal year, the MS analysts tell clients that they ascribe high importance to the update. They point out that softer trading conditions could lead to further impairments. MS has a last-published equal-weight rating and A$6.45 target price on the stock, which is up 1.6% at A$5.875. ([email protected])

0131 GMT - Goodman is in a sweetspot to raise capital or negotiate leases, suggests Citi. That reflects underlying investor demand for data center developments, tenant demand for capacity and the timing of Goodman's pipeline of development projects. "We also see the risk to the upside of announcements commencing before/at the February interim results announcement," says Citi, which rates Goodman a buy. It retains a A$40.00/share price target on Goodman, which is up 0.7% at A$30.00.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0058 GMT - Collins Foods' bull at RBC Capital Markets reckons the Australian fast-food franchiser's improved guidance still looks conservative. Analyst Michael Toner tells clients in a note that the company's first-half result was stronger than expected, with the A$30.8 million underlying profit beating consensus by 30%. He points out that this now implies a significant beat to the improved full-year profit guidance even if analysts hold their second-half forecasts. Collins expects profit to grow by a percentage in the mid-to-high teens. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and A$11.70 target price on the stock, which is down 1.0% at A$11.48. ([email protected])

2314 GMT -- Chances are good that NextDC clinches early contract wins once construction starts on its new Sydney data centers, according to UBS analysts. They think that development approval for the two centers will be a key catalyst for further acceleration in contracted capacity. The UBS analysts tell clients in a note that strong demand in New South Wales state should assist with early contract wins. After five months of its 2026 fiscal year, NextDC has almost matched the amount of contracted capacity it added in fiscal 2025. Investors will want to increase exposure to cloud adoption and artificial-intelligence growth, the analysts add. UBS lifts its target price 1.9% to A$21.85 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 2.0% at A$14.00. ([email protected])

2238 GMT - NextDC's bull at Jefferies sees no problem with the data-center operator bumping up its fiscal 2026 capital-expenditure guidance. Analyst Roger Samuel is confident that demand, rather than cost blowouts, is the reason for the Australian company's A$400 million increase to its capex guidance range. Samuel tells clients in a note that NextDC's debt headroom in the next 12 months reduces the risk it will need to raise equity, and anticipates more contract wins over the June half. Jefferies lifts its target price 1.5% to A$19.80 and keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are at A$13.72 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

Jefferies describes Treasury Wine Estates's decision to write down its U.S. assets by at least A$687.4 million as "the impairment we had to have." The U.S. wine market has been weak, so the writedown was of little surprise, analyst Michael Simotas says. Treasury Wine's carrying value of the assets was also well ahead of Jefferies's valuation. "While we expect further negative earnings momentum across the divisions, we see value in Treasury Wine," Jefferies says. The bank cuts its price target by 5.9% to A$8.00/share. Still, that represents a 38% premium to Treasury Wine's closing price of A$5.78 on Monday. That suggests there could be potential to realize value through a breakup or U.S. exit, Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires