0351 GMT - Ramelius Resources posts a small miss to 2Q gold production in what is a relatively neutral update overall, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley. The output of 45,610 oz compares to market consensus around 47,000 oz and RBC's estimate of 51,000 oz. The miner's closing cash balance is higher than expected, Barkley says, adding, "Importantly, [the] Dalgaranga development is on track and on budget." RBC has a sector perform rating and A$3.50 target on the stock. "We see more upside in other mid-cap gold producers given the delivery risks in FY27," says Barkley. Ramelius trades 2.4% lower at A$4.16. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0233 GMT - Material uncertainty over ASX's cost outlook keeps Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway cautious on the stock. He tells clients in a note that the Australian exchange operator's trading volume and revenue are tracking ahead of his prior first-half expectations, but that the financial impact of ongoing regulatory attention remains unclear. He highlights the significant changes recommended by a regulator-commissioned panel, and thinks that further costs could stem from those changes depending on the scope of the work required. This clouds the outlook for fiscal 2027 and 2028, he says. Citi cuts its target price by 16% to A$52.20 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock, which is up 2.1%at A$52.215. ([email protected])

0125 GMT - ASX shakes its bear at UBS, where analyst Kieren Chidgey thinks that regulatory risks are priced in and revenue momentum is improving. Raising his recommendation to neutral from sell, Chidgey tells clients in a note that the stock's premium to the S&P/ASX 200 is sitting at its lowest level in more than 20 years. He welcomes this recognition of regulatory risk and flags better-than-expected first-half volumes in both trading and capital-raising activity. UBS lifts its target price 3.5% to A$54.85. Shares are up 2.1% at A$52.21. ([email protected])

0052 GMT - ASX keeps its bull at Macquarie amid stronger-than-expected volumes across all of the Australian exchange operator's divisions. The investment bank keeps an outperform rating on the stock, pointing to factors including a 22% on year rise in December-quarter futures volumes, and 26% jumps in volumes of both 90-day bank bills and three-year bonds. With equities trading rising by a similar note, a note from one of Macquarie's analysts points out that the stock is trading at a 4% premium to the S&P/ASX 100, compared with a three-year average 46%. Macquarie cuts its target price 9.4% to A$58.00 to reflect the recent capital charges imposed by regulators. Shares are up 1.9% at A$52.08. ([email protected])

0042 GMT - SGH has some room to improve its bid for BlueScope, according to Macquarie. SGH proposed buying BlueScope for A$30 a share and then selling its North American businesses to Steel Dynamics. "We sense investors see the bid price as low, while the deal prospect is real," Macquarie analysts say. "Shift in terms, and economics, thus seem likely as time passes." They reckon it could be a lengthy bidding process. But for SGH, "we find accretion and leverage outcomes relatively resilient to changes in bid prices owing to solid deal multiple arbitrage," they say. That is based on paying A$6-A$10 per BlueScope share for its businesses outside of North America. They assign A$24 a share to the North American businesses as "a reasonable starting point," based on an earlier failed bid from Steel Dynamics. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0037 GMT - Magellan Financial's bear at Macquarie keeps an underperform rating on the Australian wealth manager despite stronger-than-expected institutional inflows. An analyst note from the investment bank flags continuing risk to fiscal 2026 earnings from associate profits and sub-advisory fees. The note acknowledges that A$200 million of the December-quarter institutional net inflows was far better than the consensus forecast of a A$710 million outflow, but this only tempers the scale of the overall outflows that Macquarie now forecasts for the full fiscal year. Macquarie lifts its target price by 1.8% to A$8.55. Shares are down 0.5% at A$9.25. ([email protected])

2248 GMT - Infratil's big discount to net asset value leads Morgans to start coverage of the infrastructure investor at accumulate with an A$11.30/share price target. Infratil currently trades at a 30% discount to NAV per share. That compares to a historic 20% discount. "There are a number of high-quality growth assets in the business which we see as likely to lift NAV over time," analyst Nick Harris says. "Assuming delivery of target returns, post fees the net asset value should nearly double over the next five years and create substantial value for equity holders." Infratil ended Wednesday at A$9.83. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2231 GMT - Macro tailwinds are supportive for Chalice Mining, which is charting a viable path to production at its Gonneville deposit in Western Australia, says Morgans. It notes the European Union is moving to soften its 2035 ban on new internal combustion engine cars. That would be supportive for hybrid vehicles and palladium demand. It's happening at a time when the small palladium market is tightening. Chalice recently released a pre-feasibility study into Gonneville. It outlined a 23-year, two-stage open pit development with production starting in early 2030. "The strategic value of the asset combined with a growing corporate appeal positions Gonneville well for eventual production," analyst Ross Bennett says. Morgans has a speculative buy call on Chalice. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2222 GMT - The frequency of disruptions at Northern Star Resources's gold mines is now a concern for Morgans. Northern Star expects to produce 1.60 million-1.70 million oz of gold in FY 2026, down from an earlier goal of 1.70 million-1.85 million oz. It blamed the downgrade on setbacks that include aprimary crusher failure at a key processing plant at its Kalgoorlie mining hub in Western Australia. "We are increasingly cautious on the short to mid-term outlook until delivery consistency improves," analyst Ross Bennett says. "That said, we remain constructive on gold, and elevated spot prices may help cushion near-term earnings despite weaker operating performance." Morgans downgrades Northern Star to hold, from accumulate. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2201 GMT - Valuations of New Zealand property stocks look supportive to Forsyth Barr as 2026 begins. Since the end of 2022, net tangible assets across the sector have fallen by 17%. In contrast, average stock prices are down only 4%. "The sector is now trading on a 14% discount to net tangible assets, a gross yield of 7.5% or +300bp spread to long bond rates, and an adjusted funds from operations multiple of 19x," says analyst Rohan Koreman-Smit. Forsyth Barr's top picks in the sector are Precinct Properties NZ, Vital Healthcare Property Trust and Stride Property. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2146 GMT - Northern Star Resources's lowered 2H production guidance looks achievable to Macquarie. Northern Star now expects 2H gold sales of 871,000-971,000 oz, bringing annual output to 1.60 million-1.70 million oz. That is down from earlier guidance of 1.70 million-1.85 million oz for FY 2026. Macquarie calls the downgrade disappointing, and trims its price target by 3% to A$31.00/share. Still, it retains an outperform call on the stock, which is down 5.1% so far this year. "With Northern Star trading on an FY 2027 EV/Ebitda of 6.1x (4.7x at spot gold of US$4,418/oz) the pullback could present an attractive entry point," Macquarie says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires