0126 GMT - Some Suncorp shareholders might face short-term disappointment over the Australian insurer's dividend, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrei Stadnik. While his forecast for Suncorp's full-year payout sits 2% above consensus, Stadnik reckons that many watchers are overlooking what he thinks will be a seasonal skew toward the second half. His first-half dividend forecast is 30% lower than consensus on a 65% payout ratio. Stadnik adds that Suncorp's catastrophe budget is the weakest among Australian insurers, but that it has several self-help reinsurance options for its mid-2026 renewals. MS keeps an overweight rating and A$22.55 target price on the stock, which is up 1.6% at A$17.355. ([email protected])

0112 GMT - Pexa's bulls at Macquarie reiterate their outperform rating on the stock following an end-of-year burst of property settlements in Australia's most populous state. Macquarie's analysts tell clients in a note that December settlement activity in New South Wales state was up 14% on year, compared with a 4.4% rise in November. They estimate that national activity in November, the last month for which they have sufficient data to make a calculation, was up 5.0%. Looking ahead, they anticipate further commitments from large U.K. lenders to Pexa's digital settlement platform. This should help drive rapid market-share gains, they add. Macquarie keeps a A$19.10 target price on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$13.42. ([email protected])

0102 GMT - Macquarie analysts still need to see AMP's refreshed technology platform in action before becoming more positive on the stock. They tell clients in a note that they need a live walk-through of the platform, which the Australian wealth manager says is best in class, to become more bullish over the longer term. Another box they need ticked is the resolution of the outstanding class actions against the company. In the short term, they see risk that higher average customer balances put pressure on revenue margins at AMP's superannuation and investments, and platform divisions. Macquarie trims its target price by 1.0% to A$1.90 and stays neutral on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$1.8475. ([email protected])

2354 GMT - Could CBA be the worst-performing major Australian bank for the second year in a row? Morgan Stanley reckons so. In 2025, CBA lagged the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index for the first time since 2019. "We think there are four reasons why it could underperform again in 2026," says analyst Richard E. Wiles. Its earnings outlook is now being hurt by a more robust performance from its key competitors in retail and business banking. MS doesn't anticipate a cost reduction narrative or new capital management initiatives. Also, its price-to-earnings multiple of 24x is only slightly lower than it was at the start of 2025 and its premium to peers of 45% remains elevated. "And we think the 'flow of funds' benefit has run its course," MS says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2336 GMT - Australian office Reits aren't likely to be a hot property among investors any time soon, signals Morgan Stanley. There are some tailwinds for the sector, MS says. Vacancy levels have stabilized in Sydney's central business district, asset owners have ramped up acquisitions, and new office supply is at a decade-low. "However, we do not believe office REITs are due for a re-rate over the next 6-12 months," analyst Simon Chan says. One reason is lease expiries are set to increase over the coming two to three years. For Dexus, these expiries rise to some 14% of its office portfolio in FY 2027. That indicates incentives and maintenance capex could escalate more even if operating conditions improve. Meanwhile, some 18% of Centuria Office REIT's portfolio expires in FY 2028. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2206 GMT - Margin pressure on Super Retail's rebel sportswear and equipment business could be a harbinger of tougher times to come, suggests Jefferies. Rebel didn't cut prices over the holiday period to compete with Sports Direct, given it only has one store. Instead it responded to aggressive promotions from other retailers, including outlets of major sports brands, says analyst Michael Simotas. "While not related to Sports Direct, this increases the risk of fallout as Sports Direct scales in our view," Jefferies. says. "Rebel's key defense is strength of its relationship with key brands, but these brands appear to be choosing to discount themselves rather than partner with rebel, raising some doubt." Jefferies cuts its price target on Super Retail by 6.1% to A$15.50/share. Super Retail ended Monday at A$14.89. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2156 GMT - Jefferies is upbeat about U.S. slots-machine maker Light & Wonder's agreement to pay $127.5 million to Aristocrat Leisure after it used the Australian company's coding and copyrights in two of its games. "This is a positive outcome given we had expected a material PE discount priced for contagion risk as well as our assumption of a $200 million settlement," analyst Kai Erman says. It should ease some concern of investors about its balance sheet. Also, there appears to be little to no risk of further contagion from the case. "We think this justifies a further re-rate for Light & Wonder," Jefferies says. Its price target rises 22% to A$225.00/share, and it retains a buy call on the stock. Light & Wonder ended Monday at A$182.50. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2131 GMT - Temple & Webster's bulls at Jefferies see positive signs elsewhere for the Australian furniture retailer. Analysts at the investment bank tell clients in a note that rival Nick Scali's December trading update pointed to a pickup in sales growth, while they also see evidence of improving category sales trends following the Black Friday sales event. They acknowledge that online-only Temple & Webster is still trading at a large premium to comparable, but say that the pullback that followed the company's November trading update has made it more acceptable. Jefferies keeps a buy rating and A$16.30 target price on the stock, which is at A$13.13 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

1625 ET - Electro Optic Systems' latest deal looks sensible to Ord Minnett. EOS is buying counter-drone command and control system provider MARSS group for A$54 million in cash and up to A$174 million more based on performance. "The acquisition represents a sound strategic shift for EOS as it transitions from being an optical sensor and effector systems provider to becoming a full counter-drone solutions provider," says analyst John Lawlor. MARSS also provides access to civilian applications, Ord Minnett says. Its FY 2027 Ebitda forecast rises 9%, representing a fifth upgrade in the past three months. Ord Minnett also lifts its price target on EOS by 2.3% to A$12.72/share, while retaining a speculative buy call. EOS ended Monday at A$9.99. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires