1739 ET - A significantly improved outlook for metallurgical coal prices doesn't persuade UBS to drop its sell call on Whitehaven Coal. Analyst Lachlan Shaw notes the price of benchmark Premium-Low Vol Hard Coking Coal has risen 17% since the start of December. That reflects weather-related disruptions in Australia's Queensland state and strong buying interest. "However, Whitehaven Coal is up 25% over the same timeframe," UBS says. It says Whitehaven's valuation appears stretched. One reason is that Whitehaven could be affected by more disruptions due to bad weather over the next 2-3 months. Also, metallurgical coal accounts for around 60% of Whitehaven's revenue. The remainder comes from thermal coal, which has a more subdued price outlook, UBS says. Its price target lifts 18% to A$8.45/share. Whitehaven ended Monday at A$8.80. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
1729 ET - An unexpectedly steep drop in births in China doesn't necessarily suggest a corresponding sharp drop in the local market for infant formula, suggests UBS. A2 Milk was heavily soldoff after China said new births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, from 9.54 million a year earlier. A2 Milk's Australia-listed stock dropped 12% on Monday to a five-month low. UBS said the market hadn't anticipated such a steep drop in births in China, projecting a result somewhere in a range of 8.5 million-9.0 million. "Industry feedback on Stage 1 & 2 (0-12 months) infant formula (IF) sales in 2025 suggests only a modest decline in new users potentially due to greater IF use with a shift to lower tier cities," analyst Marcus Curley says. "Marriage data also points to a recovery in 2026." UBS has a neutral call on A2 Milk. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
1722 ET - Coronado Global Resources disappears from UBS's sell list after metallurgical coal prices moved higher on supply disruptions in Australia's Queensland state and stabilizing demand. UBS upgrades Coronado to neutral and raises its price target by 76% to A$0.44/share. "Previously, we maintained a cautious stance due to the balance of market conditions and cost reduction risks during a period of peak financial leverage," says analyst Lachlan Shaw. "However, with the notable improvement in the outlook for the met coal market, we now identify significant value in Coronado." A step change in operating cash flow suggests Coronado can materially bring its debt down over the next 12 months. UBS now expects Coronado will be profitable from FY 2026, a year earlier than it previously thought. Coronado ended Monday at A$0.42. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
1656 ET - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is poised to fall at the open, as President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on eight European countries in a bid to force Denmark to sell Greenland drives investors away from stocks. ASX futures are down by 0.3% ahead of the trading day, suggesting the benchmark index will build on Monday's 0.3% drop. U.S. stock futures and European shares fell overnight, although stock and bond markets in the U.S. were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Ahead of the open, Fletcher Building said it has agreed to sell its construction division to Vinci Construction and Northern Star downgraded annual production-cost guidance, citing lower gold sales and higher royalties. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
1241 ET - ATS's latest CFO departure may make investors uneasy after a string of executive changes, TD Cowen's Cherilyn Radbourne says. Ryan McLeod, a 20-year company veteran who also served as interim CEO, is leaving to become CFO at CAE. Investors will likely view the move as understandable but it adds to a "string of executive turnover" that may unsettle the market, Radbourne says. The departure comes just as new CEO Doug Wright steps in and follows several other senior leadership changes. While ATS has a capable finance team and an experienced interim CFO in place, the news is "slightly negative" given the cumulative churn at the top, Radbourne says. ([email protected])
1209 ET - Copper prices rise despite a softer U.S. dollar and renewed trade concerns, with futures on the London Metal Exchange up 1.1% to $12,9670 a metric ton. Gains in recent weeks have been driven by heavy stockpiling in the U.S. due to fears of potential U.S. tariffs on the refined metal and a series of mine disruptions. However, sentiment was tempered after President Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on imports from several European countries to pressure Denmark into selling Greenland to the U.S., stoking concerns that escalating trade tensions could weigh on global economic growth and metals demand. Gains were also capped by regulatory curbs in China, after authorities ordered exchanges to remove high-frequency trading servers from their data centers, cooling a rally fuelled by strong Chinese investor demand, according to ANZ analysts. ([email protected])
1155 ET - President Trump's promise to impose tariffs on eight European countries in a bid to force Denmark to sell Greenland will trash the positive story built up around European equities over the past nine months, says Connor Broadley's chief investment officer Chris Wyllie. Investors who rallied behind an increasingly positive narrative around German fiscal loosening and strengthening economic growth will be disappointed, Wyllie adds. Market sentiment is likely to turn back to that surrounding April's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, he says. However, traders have learned not to make snap judgments in response to Trump statements, Wyllie says, with markets expecting an off ramp to be found. Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 1.2%, on pace for its biggest daily fall since Nov. 18. ([email protected])
1131 ET - Mullen Group is seeing a potential shift in trucking market conditions, which could help buoy performance in 2026, according to National Bank of Canada's Cameron Doerksen. Mullen's preliminary 4Q results came in below expectations, but the company's comments that the sector is entering an early tightening cycle aligns with what industry contacts are reporting, the analyst says. Regulatory tightening could finally give the industry pricing power in 2026, he adds. That backdrop could support rate improvements after a prolonged slump. The analyst lifts his target for the stock to C$19 from C$16.50, noting Mullen's valuation remains below historical averages and its 2026 free-cash-flow yield of roughly 13% looks compelling. Shares are trading 0.1% higher at C$16.68. ([email protected])
1036 ET - Bank of Canada officials next week will likely judge that underlying inflation is starting to run closer to 2% than previous assessments that it was around 2.5%, Citi's Veronica Clark says. While that isn't enough to have policymakers considering resuming interest-rate cuts just yet, recent inflation data should at least substantially reduce the chance of rate increases this year, Clark says. Further slowing in inflation, which forward-looking demand metrics indicate, should have officials considering rate cuts again later this year, the economist adds. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)
1029 ET - Iamgold's stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter output underscores the momentum it is taking into 2026, TD Cowen analyst Steven Green says. In a report, he notes output of 242,000 ounces topped both TD estimates and consensus on better grades across all mines. The beat should give the stock a modest lift, Green says, highlighting the performance of its Cote Gold operations as a key driver. "[Fourth-quarter] production of 242,000 ounces was above our estimate of 203,000 ounces and consensus of 210,000 ounces," Green says. The company "has good operational momentum heading into 2026," he says. Shares trading in Toronto are up 8.1% to C$25.90. ([email protected])
1015 ET - The Bank of Canada won't be swayed by month-to-month fluctuations in headline inflation that are driven by the base-year effects of year-earlier comparisons, Oxford Economics' Michael Davenport says. Instead, the central bank will likely continue to focus on the trend in underlying inflation, which the economist and the central bank think remains in the mid-2% range. "With ongoing upside risks to inflation from U.S. tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty, we continue to believe the BoC will hold rates at 2.25% until early 2027," Davenport says. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)
1002 ET - Any speculation the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates this year looks to be further dashed by a second consecutive month where the core trim and median measures of inflation tracked closely by the central bank came in cooler than anticipated, Capital Economics' Stephen Brown suggests. The economist says that if anything, recent data including figures indicating the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2025, raise the risk the Bank of Canada might opt to loosen monetary policy further. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires