Ok i know im like a broken record on this, but the flows were better than my expectations, but the gap is closing! For platform flows, the part that matters, FUA was $128B, as per the below, with net flows of $11B in the FH. My estimates for the full-year growth are for FUA, FY25: $113B to FY26: $133B, driven by market moves of $7B and flows of $14B. HUB reported $11b flows into the Fh, so ahead of my numbers. Total FUA will likely be above, mainly from flows, which is good.
HUB also said mkt share at 9/25 was 9.3%, my base case has this going to be No 1 in share (now No 6) at over 30%, many years in the future. HUB mgt had said repeatedly that the FUA accumulation is layered, so getting an advisory group is first, then the individual advisors in the group signed on second, and lastly, the migration of individual clients on the platform. That means the building blocks are in place for many years of gains. if that isn't playing out, we have a problem
Investment strategy. The LT targets are set, and I believe achievable, unfortunately this is no secret. At the last interims, i said im a buyer in the $50's, and i can understand the scoffing at the time. SP was in the $70s as i recall. lo and behold in April the SP fell, and I loaded up at $52.43 (i looked that up, I know you guys love a SP quote). Hub is now my second-largest Aussie holding, and I believe that waiting for opportunities to add is the right strategy, it's similar to my largest holding, LOV, where I see significant LT upside as well.
so its a hold and wait, Trump?, Xi?, Albo? Im waiting, lol. At this stage im a buyer in the low $60s, and will fine-tune the valuation after the interims.
