0156 GMT - Operationally, BHP delivered a clean 2Q, with beats on both iron ore and copper production, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. Copper also "beat hard on price, and FY26 copper guidance was formally upgraded," which should result in upgrades to consensus earnings estimates, Peker says. He notes that Escondida and Western Australia Iron Ore continue to perform well, and that Copper South Australia continues to show signs of stability. The key offset is Jansen Stage 1 capex that has been revised higher to US$8.4 billion, roughly US$1 billion above RBC's forecast, Peker says. "Alongside working-capital outflows, this pressures near-term FCF [free cash flow] but balance sheet strength remains intact," he says. RBC has a sector perform rating and a target price of A$49.00 on BHP. The stock is down 1.5% at A$48.01 a share. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0104 GMT - There's a more than A$50 billion opportunity available to mall owner Scentre, says Morgan Stanley. "We estimate that Scentre could have the rights to build circa 75,000 apartments on top of/adjacent to its 37 Australian Westfield shopping malls," analyst Lauren A. Berry says. MS says Scentre could unlock the value of its residential land bank by transferring sites into a development JV with a third party. It could then generate Ebitda on developments in later years when residential lots are completed and sold. "Alternatively, under a build-to-rent model, there could be recurring rental income upon completion of the resi lots," MS says. It estimates latent value of A$0.66-A$1.00/share to Scentre, assuming 75,000 lots are developed by 2050. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0056 GMT - The steep selloff in A2 Milk that followed China's annual population assessment feeds into Forsyth Barr's bearish view of the stock. A2 Milk shares dropped more than 10% after China said births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, from 9.54 million a year earlier. Analyst Matt Montgomerie said births were 11% below his expectations. While the selloff in A2 Milk may appear harsh, it's "important to recognize the lagged impact of new births on infant formula sales (over two thirds of revenue is in Stage 3 product and beyond [babies aged 12 months plus])," Forsyth Barr says. It signals China's fertility policies have had a limited impact. Forsyth Barr says it reduces the probability of near-term earnings upside. "A2 Milk moves from trading at very expensive to merely expensive valuation levels," it adds. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0047 GMT - An around 20% fall in Commonwealth Bank of Australia's share price over the past six months doesn't nudge Morgan Stanley into changing its bearish view. "We stay underweight because outperformance in retail and business banking will be harder to achieve, positive catalysts relating to either costs or capital management are unlikely, and the stock remains vulnerable to an ongoing de-rating," analyst Richard E. Wiles says. MS says CBA's major competitors are performing better. Also, the 'flow of funds' benefit is fading, and the prospect of further rate cuts by Australia's central bank and a stronger economic recovery are unlikely. MS cuts its price target on CBA by 8.5% to A$131.00/share. CBA is down 1.4% at A$151.17. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0042 GMT - Car dealership Eagers Automotive is well placed heading into next month's corporate earnings season, says Morgan Stanley. It points to consensus expectations for a pretax profit of A$421.6 million in 2025."We see scope for upside surprise on 2025 (and implied 2H) pretax profit--especially with recent new vehicle sales data points," says analyst Chenny Wang. Among the drivers of a potential profit beat: an around A$6 million benefit from lower debt costs after Australia's central bank cut interest rates several times last year. "We think expectations on outlook are relatively muted, and think Eagers can surprise positively (especially now that they've extended their organic growth runway into Canada)," MS adds. Eagers is up 1.1% at A$27.63. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2300 GMT - RBC Capital Markets identifies a couple of possible impacts from Origin Energy's decision to delay the closure of its Eraring coal-fired power plant in by more than a year and a half. Origin now expects Eraring to close in April 2029, later than its prior plan of August 2027. RBC analyst Gordon Ramsay says the decision could reduce future wholesale electricity pricing in Australia's New South Wales state if the plant had closed in August 2027. "Should the market now be questioning the planned closure dates of other major coal-fired electricity generation plants in Australia--Yallourn in 2028, Bayswater 2031-33, and Loy Yang by 2035?" RBC adds. It has a sector perform call on Origin, which ended Monday at A$11.05.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2249 GMT - Chalice Mining's reset of expectations around its Gonneville deposit in Western Australia gives it room to grow, says UBS. The bank upgrades Chalice to buy, from neutral, and raises its price target by 57% to A$2.75/share. Chalice recently released a pre-feasibility study into Gonneville. It outlined a 23-year, two-stage open pit development with production starting in early 2030. Analyst Levi Spry said forecast production may have been softer than market expectations, but could be a baseline. "Our updated modelling sees 10% higher production through further flow sheet optimization and increased revenue stemming from higher forecast Platinum Group Elements commodity prices," UBS says. Chalice ended Monday at A$2.28. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2239 GMT - A significantly improved outlook for metallurgical coal prices doesn't persuade UBS to drop its sell call on Whitehaven Coal. Analyst Lachlan Shaw notes the price of benchmark Premium-Low Vol Hard Coking Coal has risen 17% since the start of December. That reflects weather-related disruptions in Australia's Queensland state and strong buying interest. "However, Whitehaven Coal is up 25% over the same timeframe," UBS says. It says Whitehaven's valuation appears stretched. One reason is that Whitehaven could be affected by more disruptions due to bad weather over the next 2-3 months. Also, metallurgical coal accounts for around 60% of Whitehaven's revenue. The remainder comes from thermal coal, which has a more subdued price outlook, UBS says. Its price target lifts 18% to A$8.45/share. Whitehaven ended Monday at A$8.80. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2229 GMT - An unexpectedly steep drop in births in China doesn't necessarily suggest a corresponding sharp drop in the local market for infant formula, suggests UBS. A2 Milk was heavily soldoff after China said new births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, from 9.54 million a year earlier. A2 Milk's Australia-listed stock dropped 12% on Monday to a five-month low. UBS said the market hadn't anticipated such a steep drop in births in China, projecting a result somewhere in a range of 8.5 million-9.0 million. "Industry feedback on Stage 1 & 2 (0-12 months) infant formula (IF) sales in 2025 suggests only a modest decline in new users potentially due to greater IF use with a shift to lower tier cities," analyst Marcus Curley says. "Marriage data also points to a recovery in 2026." UBS has a neutral call on A2 Milk. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2222 GMT - Coronado Global Resources disappears from UBS's sell list after metallurgical coal prices moved higher on supply disruptions in Australia's Queensland state and stabilizing demand. UBS upgrades Coronado to neutral and raises its price target by 76% to A$0.44/share. "Previously, we maintained a cautious stance due to the balance of market conditions and cost reduction risks during a period of peak financial leverage," says analyst Lachlan Shaw. "However, with the notable improvement in the outlook for the met coal market, we now identify significant value in Coronado." A step change in operating cash flow suggests Coronado can materially bring its debt down over the next 12 months. UBS now expects Coronado will be profitable from FY 2026, a year earlier than it previously thought. Coronado ended Monday at A$0.42. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires