0251 GMT - Beach Energy's dividend in FY 2026 could underwhelm the market as the company hoards cash for a potential M&A push, suggests UBS. Beach recently secured an additional A$300 million term loan, which brings its available liquidity to A$925 million. That could support its growth ambitions, and opportunities abound, says analyst Tom Allen. They include seeking exposure to Santos's Narrabri gas project, along with conventional gas and liquids opportunities in the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia. "In anticipation of a possible shift in application of Beach's capital framework, we have cut our dividend profile," UBS says. "We look to the February result as a key catalyst to clarify how the board will balance the need to invest in growth and address Beach's short average reserve life (7 years) while also delivering stronger shareholder returns." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0231 GMT - Macquarie gets a new bull in UBS, which sees the exit of its Macquarie Asset Management unit from public markets in the U.S. and Europe as a positive development. The transition will shift MAM's focus more toward private markets, particularly infrastructure. "However, with ongoing concerns around CGM's performance and the timing of asset realizations, we think the market has not fully factored in the implications of this divestment on MAM's fee structure, and performance fee potential," analyst John Storey says. CGM refers to Macquarie's Commodities and Global Markets division. UBS upgrades Macquarie to buy, from neutral, and raises its price target by 4.4% to A$235.00/share. Macquarie is up 2.4% at A$210.84. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0206 GMT - South32's solid production and cost performance will be viewed positively by the market, given concerns about seasonal fires and wet weather, RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker says in a note. Better-than-anticipated prices for copper, zinc and silver should support earnings, despite misses on alumina and manganese pricing, says Peker. "The development projects also showed strong momentum at Hermosa," while cash flow generation is marginally ahead of expectations, he says. RBC has an outperform rating and A$4.20 target on South32. The stock is up 4.6% at A$4.37. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0206 GMT - Engineering contractor Monadelphous's annual revenue guidance looks conservative to Macquarie, given recent contract wins have been strong. Macquarie now forecasts revenue to rise 30% in FY 2026. That compares with Monadelphous's 20-25% guidance. Macquarie says Monadelphous's outlook implies 2H revenue growth of 9%, well below the 45% achieved in 1H. "The stock has had a strong run and there is now relatively high expectation built into the share price," says Macquarie, which retains an outperform call. "We think stock should be supported by consensus EPS upgrades." Macquarie's EPS forecast is 17% and 19% above consensus expectations for FY 2026 and FY 2027, respectively. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0155 GMT - Paladin Energy is well placed to beat guidance for its uranium production following an exceptional quarter by its flagship Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, says Macquarie. Paladin is targeting output of 4.0 million-4.4 million pounds of U308, a common compound of uranium. Macquarie now thinks it will produce 4.6 million pounds in FY 2026. In 2Q, Paladin dug up 1.23 million pounds of U308. That was 20% ahead of consensus expectations on stronger throughput and grade. Macquarie retains a neutral call on Paladin, while lifting its price target by 11% to A$12.35/share. Paladin is down 3.2% at A$12.75. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0151 GMT - Fortescue continues to move closer to net cash, reporting net debt of US$1.0 billion at Dec. 31 versus US$1.9 billion three months earlier, says Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan. The miner's cash balance of US$4.7 billion, up from US$4.6 billion a quarter earlier, beat Jefferies' US$4.55 billion estimate. Jefferies expects Fortescue to transition to net cash by FY 2027. Ryan also highlights "a decreasing emphasis on green investment expenditures," which "concentrates investor exposure to iron-ore earnings." Fortescue didn't provide any updates on its clean-energy projects in its 2Q results, except to say that it continues to assess project viability based on customer demand and regulations. Fortescue is down 4.4% at A$21.65. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0140 GMT - Macquarie disagrees with investors who think data-center owner NextDC could soon be seeking to raise equity again. "We think NextDC can debt-fund for two years without more contract wins," Macquarie says. It contends that alternative growth funding is more attractive. Macquarie notes that third-party capital is now taking direct stakes in individual developments, pointing to Canada Pension Plan Investment Board investing in a Canadian asset alongside Northleaf. "Alternative funding is not just a source of capital, but can drive return on equity and provide NextDC with growth optionality," says Macquarie, which retains an outperform call on the stock. NextDC is up less than 0.1% at A$12.945.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0042 GMT - Fortescue's Iron Bridge mine has "once again" underperformed versus expectations, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. At 2.2 million metric tons, shipments from the operation miss RBC's forecast by 13% and consensus estimates by 17%, Peker says. The 1H annualized shipping run-rate implies just 8.6 million tons from the operation in FY 2026, 14% below the low end of guidance, he says. Fortescue's 2Q hematite production costs also disappointed. C1 costs of $19.10/wet ton are 6% above consensus, says Peker. "While FMG has called out higher diesel prices and the change in the AUD/USD for the increase, we believe it's a function of opportunistic mining given the higher Fe [iron] price, which has resulted in FMG favouring higher cost tons away from infrastructure." ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0028 GMT - South32's Cannington mine delivered the biggest positive surprise in 2Q, with higher mining grades leading to a sharp rise in silver output, says Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi. On the whole, South32's production results are broadly in line with Citi's expectations, he says. "We see favorable unit-cost implication from higher silver production, while higher prices are likely to drive the unit costs below its guidance going into 1H'26 results," Ravi writes in a client note. He sees potential for low-single-digit upgrades to FY 2026 consensus estimates. South32 is up 4.1% at A$4.35. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires