0247 GMT - TD Securities expects deeper backwardations in LME copper, as incentives to stockpile clash with limited supplies of physical metal, says TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali. "Amid unprecedented metal scarcity, venues must price each other out from attracting metal, resulting in a cycle favoring higher flat prices, curve dislocations, and rising physical premiums," Ghali says. He says yearslong underinvestment in copper production has left the market vulnerable to a supply crunch. "Global unencumbered copper inventories are now draining into oblivion," says Ghali. Of the roughly 53 days of demand remaining in aboveground inventories, only 11.5 days worth were unrestricted at December-end, he says.([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0159 GMT - A hot copper market helps soften concerns about disruptions at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde operation in Chile. "Ironically, one of the reasons prices are so high is because of disruptions such as this across the broader sector," MA Financial analyst Paul Hissey says in a note. He says the stalemate with union members is likely to either resolve in an agreement or shift into a courtroom. "While there is often union activity in Chile, in our experience disruptions are rarely protracted," Hissey says. MA has a hold rating and a target price of A$15.50 on Capstone's Australian shares. The stock is down 3.7% in Sydney at A$14.90. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2354 GMT - Northern Star Resources could be approaching a period of clean air, says Macquarie. While the gold price has been on a tear, Northern Star has repeatedly jolted investors' confidence. It has downgraded annual production targets, raised cost guidance, and just reported a weak 2Q. Macquarie notes Northern Star's stock has underperformed peers over the past three months. As a result, its valuation looks more attractive compared to Newmont and Evolution Mining. "So now could be a good time to add exposure as we believe most of the bad news is behind it," says Macquarie, which keeps an outperform call. Northern Star is up 4.3% at A$27.31. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2347 GMT - Resolute Mining's stronger balance sheet means it will likely need to rely less on external financing to support its Doropo gold development in Ivory Coast, reckons Macquarie. Resolute had US$209 million of cash and bullion at the end of December. That was up some US$143 million on how it finished 2024. This jump reflects the bull run by the gold price. "On our re-calibrated production and cost outlook, we anticipate a more modest need for external financing to fund the US$516 million of Doropo growth capital," says Macquarie. It now expects peak debt of US$100 million, compared with US$360 million before, to provide a working capital buffer. Macquarie retains an outperform call on Resolute. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2341 GMT - Beach Energy can achieve its FY 2026 production target but it's going to be tight, reckons Canaccord Genuity. Beach expects annual output of 19.7 million-22.0 million BOE. Following Beach's 2Q report, Canaccord cuts its forecast for FY 2026 to 19.9 million BOE while also lowering its outlook in FY 2027 to 21.9 million BOE. Analyst James Bullen says this reflects lower customer nominations and planned downtime at assets in the Otway Basin of southeastern Australia. It also accounts for a slightly slower rampup of the Waitsia Stage 2 project in Western Australia, and increased conservatism about the recovery and production of flood-impacted wells in the Cooper Basin of central Australia. Canaccord has a buy call on Beach. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2340 GMT - Recent data points showing Spark NZ lost more of the important mobile market, which helps to cement Forsyth Barr's bearish view of the telecoms company's stock. Analyst Ben Crozier points to 4Q data from Telcowatch that Spark lost an estimated 20 basis points of market share across its main Spark and Skinny brands, taking its estimated connection share to 38.1%. "This continued loss of market share is disappointing given Spark has increased its investment in marketing over 2025 and, as indicated by Spark (and seen in the data), it had a solid new iPhone launch period during August to September 2025," Forsyth Barr says. If there's a positive it's that Spark's market share losses are slowing. Forsyth Barr retains an underperform call on Spark. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2330 GMT - Genesis Energy's upgrade to its FY 2026 earnings guidance may not be its last, says Forsyth Barr. Genesis now expects annual Ebitdaf of NZ$490 million-NZ$520 million. That's up some NZ$35 million on its prior projection. "With operating conditions remaining favorable (and recent rain adding to catchments), we see earnings risks to the upside in the short term," analyst Andrew Harvey-Green says. "January 2026 is tracking toward a record, with month-to-date Otahuhu prices averaging NZ$5/MWh." Forsyth Barr lifts its forecast for FY 2026 Ebitdaf to NZ$526 million, putting it above Genesis's revised range. It retains a neutral call on Genesis's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2318 GMT - Macquarie is surprised South32 didn't update investors about the cost of its Hermosa zinc-lead-silver development in the U.S. when reporting its 1H operational performance. South32 has estimated the cost of building a mine called Taylor at Hermosa to be $2.16 billion. Macquarie assumes the budget will overrun to $2.3 billion considering inflationary pressures in the mining industry. "We had thought prior to the new CEO and Chair assuming responsibility, South32 might provide a Hermosa update given recent industry capex revisions," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on South32, and raises its price target by 10% to A$4.60/share. South32 is up 1.1% at A$4.45 early on Friday. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2312 GMT -Santos's forecast output of between 101 million and 111 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2026 was broadly consistent with Macquarie's expectations. The bank said the increase on 87.7 million BOE achieved in 2025 is "a key positive given this is a step-up year." Macquarie retains an outperform call on Santos, noting risks to the investment case are reducing rapidly as its new projects come online. Santos is loading the first cargo of liquefied natural gas from the Barossa project in Australia and its Pikka Phase 1 development in Alaska is on track to produce oil for the first time by the end of March. Macquarie says an asset portfolio producing 100 million-120 million BOE puts Santos on course for a "double-digit free cash flow yield." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2238 GMT - Sandfire Resources is back in a net cash position, so when will it resume dividend payments to shareholders? Jefferies thinks 2H of FY 2026 is likely. Sandfire ended 1H with US$13 million of net cash, representing a US$75 million reduction in net debt during 2Q. Analyst Mitch Ryan says a stronger balance sheet gives Sandfire more capital flexibility and paves the way for potential shareholder returns or new investment in growth projects. Still, Jefferies is mindful that Sandfire's Kalkaroo copper-gold development in South Australia will likely require initial expenditure of A$70 million annually through to FY 2028. Jefferies retains a hold call on Sandfire, and lifts its price target by 2.9% to A$17.50/share. Sandfire ended Thursday at A$19.11. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2158 GMT - Jefferies thinks sentiment toward gold miner Northern Star Resources will turn after a challenging period marked by operational underperformance, guidance downgrades, capex increases and out-of-the-money hedging. "Looking forward 12-18 months we see a growing production profile, falling cost base, and increased exposure to the spot price," analyst Mitch Ryan says. As investors turn more positive, Jefferies expects the stock will materially re-rate. "At spot gold prices of US$4,831/oz, we see 82% upside to our net present value for Northern Star," Jefferies says. Jefferies trims its price target by 3.2% to A$30.00/share. Northern Star ended Thursday at A$26.18. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2141 GMT - Wealth-management platform provider Netwealth is upgraded to buy, from hold, by Jefferies after its shares fell by roughly 1/3 over the past six months. Analyst Simon Fitzgerald attributes that stock weakness to Netwealth's exposure to the collapse of the First Guardian Master Fund and its agreement to compensate members in full. "In our view, the First Guardian collapse is an isolated event that has resulted in a buying opportunity in Netwealth," Jefferies says. Netwealth now trades on a price-to-earnings discount of 31% to listed rival Hub24. "This is despite robust new business momentum, as evidenced by 2Q net inflows of A$4.1 billion (second-highest on record)," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0500 GMT - As data centers fuel energy demand, betting everything on oil and gas doesn't add up, says Fortescue's Andrew Forrest. It takes decades to build oil-and-gas capacity, he tells the WSJ Leadership Institute at Davos. "Renewable energy on a 24/7 baseload basis, to be proved by my company within 3 years...is coming," and it will be cheaper than oil and gas in both operating and capital costs. Forrest sees a dissonance between the embrace of artificial intelligence and backlash against renewables. "You can't pick and choose--either science is rubbish or science is true, mate," he says. "Don't say 'I'm doing AI cause I've got the best computer scientists, then 'By the way, climate science doesn't matter, it doesn't work.' If you believe in science, climate science is changing everything--technology of renewable energy is changing everything." ([email protected])

0432 GMT - Fortescue's Andrew Forrest has a message for business and political leaders: The case for green energy is clear. It's ironic that the winds are blowing against renewables just as technology is making them competitive, he tells the WSJ Leadership Institute at Davos. "I can build massive power plants in renewables inside a year. I can power them with AI inside a second...with oil and gas--you're looking at a decade." He questions the logic behind antisustainability. "If you drop your values just cause there's pressure on them...or you get political pushback, then who actually are you?" Fortescue does tens of billions of dollars in projects, "so if we're going green it's not because we're woke," but because it's economic and the right thing for shareholders. "Look, I'd buy your coal, oil & gas mate, but it's too expensive. I've got renewable energy, it's cheaper." ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires