Forum Topics RBA rate rises
tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

I was doing some reading today, and it seems that the consensus is that we are almost guaranteed a rate rise Tuesday next week, and it is likely not to be a 'one and done'. I've been doing some research around which stocks are likely to benefit and which might be punished. It seems like it could be of some small benefit to the Big 4 Banks' earnings and (hopefully for me) prices, but that it could slow mergers and acquisitions potentially hurting investment houses like MQG and obviously impact debt heavy companies.

Curious as to whether anyone else is considering rate rises as part of their investment analysis and has any insights, @Strawman perhaps?

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Dominator
Added a month ago

I don't see how the RBA can say they are targeting 2-3% inflation without raising rates. Though I won't be surprised if they use the next meeting to basically say next time its coming so it's not a surprise when it happens...

Interest rates don't really affect my investments. I assume such external variables are within the realm possibilities and out of my control. If the business is going to be taken out by change in interest rates (say 2% or less) why am I investing in such a fragile business? Everyone is on the same playing field, it's not like it won't affect the competitor's business in a similar way. I only invest in businesses where my expected return is above 15% pa otherwise it is a no go. From my point of view, the effect of interest rates with regards to my expected return should be a rounding error, I don't believe I can be precise enough that it matters.

In saying all that I do actually own a business in the US that is directly affected by the Feds interest rates. Stone X (Nasdaq ticker SNEX), it's a financial services business. It makes some profit from the float of client funds. If rates were to change by 1% this could change profitability by about 20%. However, they are a growing business so can offset any reductions in interest rate related profits by increasing client funds compared to slower growing competitors. Even given the large profitability affect, the potential for long term growth of Stone X is far more important to me.

I guess it is businesses similar to Stone X that have a large cash float to profit from that are the biggest winners from interest rate rises.

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GazD
Added a month ago

Hey @tomsmithidg Yes looking at very similar themes to you. I fixed our Home Loan November last year to try to capture bottom of the cycle (and we got a slightly lower rate than the best variable we could get) and in additionI've trimmed growth stocks and looking to buy some more inflation proof stocks. I would never sell out on my high conviction growth stocks but I'd like to buy them at a cheaper price if the opportunity presents (Have added some CAT today and also some 360) following a slide.


Looking at QBE as a potential beneficiary of inflation/rate rises as well as other dividend payers like Aurizon, Deterra etc.


So for me it's more a little fiddling around the egdes rather than wholesale changes. I'm definitely a believer in inflationary pressures continuing and part of the reason for my Bitcoin holding (wish it was gold over last year haha).


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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

Gold and/or silver @GazD , annoyingly they were both on my radar but I was tardy in purchasing. I'd even gone to a vendor last year but unbelievably they didn't have electronic payment and wanted a bank cheque of all things. I didn't get around to it in a timely fashion and the great price run began, leaving me in its dust. I do wonder if people with investment portfolios and mortgages that weren't as quick as you to lock in a fixed interest rate will start liquidating those portfolios as interest rates head north again and if that will impact prices. Rate rises are normally bad for gold, but I'm not sure that is going to be the case this time around. I don't like saying it, but I may have to focus on rebuilding a cash position until I'm confident of a clear value proposition. Or maybe I'll just keep doubling down on WDS and pray that the stars align, haha. Maybe Uncle Trump will bomb Iran again and help me out in that regard.

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Keyboardcat999
Added a month ago

The classic interest rate play is Computershare. I remember in their last FY preso they broke down how much money they would make on incremental increases in rates. Obviously I would expect that the market is pricing this in, but if you think the market is being too optimistic on rates then there could be some upside. I wonder if the same applies to insurers with their massive floats?

Personally, if rates go up I make small adjustments to how much money I put aside for investing versus being saved in the offset.

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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

@Keyboardcat999 just had a gander at CPU and it looks interesting, at first glance a pretty solid business, but the SP has been on a slide and approaching 52 week lows. All the analysis I've read on it seems to lean towards an upside, with steady, capital light, compounding. Could be a nice value play. Thanks for the reply there mate. It's going on the watchlist.

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RogueTrader
Added a month ago

Computershare is run by a bunch of scum with zero morals or scruples, who alone among the Australian registries regard shareholders dividends as their own personal profit centre, regularly coming up with reasons for 'fees' to plunder monies that they should simply be transferring from the company to the shareholder. High time there was a government inquiry into these shonks - you can read reviews here: Computershare Investor Centre reviews | ProductReview.com.au

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Keyboardcat999
Added a month ago

Every time I log into their website it feels like a fun little trip to the 2000s!

I forget who said it, but there was an episode on Ausbiz's The Call where someone described Iress and Computershare as the 'ASX mafia' and I think that's a very apt way of putting it, but it should be expanded to include Pexa.

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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

Thanks @RogueTrader , I'll definitely take a look at this.

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