0035 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to begin raising interest rates and that's going to intensify pressure on infrastructure stocks. Jefferies analyst Anthony Moulder acknowledges the disconnect between cash rates in the markets that most debt is sourced from, and the level of Australian 10 year government bonds. Still, the difference between infrastructure yields and the Australia's 10-year bond has narrowed. Jefferies favors Atlas Arteria and Auckland International Airport over toll road owner Transurban. "Transurban remains well-positioned to continue to deliver solid growth in distributions from its existing portfolio," Jefferies says. "However, at the current yield, it remains at a very low premium to the Australian 10 year." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0032 GMT - Xero's Melio bill-pay business could hit breakeven six months earlier than RBC analyst Garry Sherriff previously anticipated. The accounting software provider's projection for Melio's earnings to break even on a run-rate basis by 2H FY 2028 forms the basis of what Sherriff sees as a positive update from the New Zealand-based company. He tells clients in a note that he still has questions on the nature of the revenue synergies that Xero anticipates from its recent acquisition of Melio. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and A$155.00 target price on the stock, which is up 2.1% at A$95.66. ([email protected])

0021 GMT - Origin Energy's recent tightening of production guidance from its Integrated Gas business may not be its last, reckons Jarden. Origin now expects between 645 and 680 petajoules of natural gas in FY 2026 from Integrated Gas, which includes its flagship Australia Pacific LNG project. That's a narrower range than earlier guidance of 635-680 petajoules. "The revised range leaves room for further upgrades in 2H FY26, in our view," says analyst Nik Burns. "We think Origin is still being very conservative in its APLNG guidance revision." Jarden expects output of 667 petajoules, ahead of consensus expectations. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0009 GMT - For Meteoric Resources, binding offtake agreements for its flagship Brazilian rare-earths project will be the key catalyst in 2026. That's the view of its bull at Ord Minnett. Meteoric has been ticking key permitting boxes. Now, it needs to lock in deals with rare-earth refineries outside China for supply from its proposed Caldeira Project. "These are needed to for financing (including non-binding export finance offers) and construction of the operation," says analyst Matthew Hope. Meteoric hopes to start production by 2028. Ord Minnett lifts its price target by 14% to A$0.40/share. Meteoric is up 7.3% at A$0.22. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2357 GMT - GrainCorp keeps Morgans analyst Belinda Moore interested despite a disappointing guidance downgrade. While the Australian grain handler has maintained its volume outlook, Moore points out in a note to clients that margins have weakened on global dynamics. However, she maintains an accumulate rating on the stock even with material downgrades to her forecasts. She calls attention to GrainCorp's strong balance sheet and a fixed-cost leverage that should return when global grain stocks eventually tighten once again. Its material assets are worth a lot more than implied by the share price, she adds. Morgans cuts its target price 25% to A$6.76. Shares are down 2.0% at A$6.065. ([email protected])

2357 GMT - Ioneer's US$50 million capital raise caught Ord Minnett off guard. Still, the bank isn't changing its A$0.40/share price target as the raising likely just brings forward funding that would have been needed anyway. Ioneer said the raising puts it in a strong financial position to complete the strategic partnering process for its Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project. It also gives it headroom to make a final investment decision and start early construction work. "The raise took us by surprise, as we considered Ioneer would wait until the strategic partnering process was complete before raising funds to start 'construction'," says analyst Matthew Hope. Ioneer is up 3.2% at A$0.16. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

23:27 GMT -- GrainCorp loses its bull at Macquarie on the grain handler's latest earnings downgrade. Cutting their recommendation to neutral from outperform, an analyst at the investment bank writes in a note that they see the low-margin environment in which the Australian company is operating persisting for at least the next 12 months. With the U.S. wheat market expected to remain in surplus, the analyst can't see any catalyst for a meaningful near-term lift in grain prices that would improve GrainCorp's export margins. Macquarie cuts its fiscal 2026 EPS forecast by 65%, driving a 20% cut in target price to A$6.60. Shares are down 2.4% at A$6.04. ([email protected])

2259 GMT - SGH faces short-term cyclical headwinds in construction markets, offsetting generally healthy operating conditions in the mining sector, Bell Potter analyst Joseph House says in a note. He highlights a 5% fall in Australian east coast roadwork on-year during 3Q 2025. "While booming infrastructure sub-sectors like electrical generation and transmission are anticipated to provide some demand reprieve, the lower consumption intensity of aggregates and concrete compared with Roading would not be a like-for-like demand replacement for Boral," House says. Bell Potter's target on SGH is trimmed to A$51.80/share from A$52.00. It retains a hold recommendation. SGH ended Monday at A$45.78. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2256 GMT - GrainCorp's disappointing annual guidance is seen at Bell Potter as likely evidence of how dependent the Australian company's returns are on global grain fundamentals. The grain handler flagged global oversupply and competition while guiding for fiscal 2026 Ebitda of between A$200 million and A$240 million, which was well short of the A$304 million anticipated by Bell Potter analyst Jonathan Snape. Snape tells clients in a note that relatively high Australian grain premiums are making marketing opportunities difficult. Bell Potter cuts its target price 11% to A$6.80 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is at A$6.19 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires