Interesting opportunity thrown up today.
Amplitude Energy (AEL, formerly Cooper Energy COE) has had a miss in its first exploration well of the current 4-well campaign in the Otway basin (offshore Victoria).
While disappointing & quite unexpected, I think the market has over-reacted & SP over-corrected - cratering over 20% on the miss.
Core business is doing very well under relatively new manager Jane Noorman (ex STO)'s stewardship, with increasingly pleasing performance from their owned Orbost Gas Plant feeding Sole gas field production through it - formerly was bottlenecked & sulphur issues, but in past 12-18 months they have gotten on top of this issues, debottle-necked the plant & are even now lifting its capacity beyond former nameplate capacity of 68 TJ/day.
Other owned Gas Plant (Orbost) has huge latent capacity (total 150 TJ/day), which is only very partly being utilised. This is the big value kicker if they can backfill this plant with additional gas volumes from current growth initiative & exploration program dubbed the ECSP (East Coast Supply Project). Potential of substantial additional cashflow through the plant, for only the additional cap-ex to get any new fields drilled & tapped into existing nearby pipeline infrastructure.
I think market has over-reacted, and still good chance that 1 or more of the other 3 wells planned to be drilled with current JV partner OP Energy will come good.
Possible opportunity for those with slightly higher risk tolerance, as rest of business has been substantially de-risked - its just the growth premium that's been knocked off assuming entire campaign will be a flop. I don't buy this simplistic narrative & put this at a low probability. Any buying sub $2.75 good value in my opinion & will be rewarded with time.
Growth volumes from ECSP will kick in by early 2028 if successful, and can always toll 3rd party gas through Otway plant as a fall back.
Also my belief is eventually Beach will make a move on Ampllitude, as would complement their predominantly West Coast gas business nicely, and they already have significant expertise in Amplitude's offshore Victorian acreage/area, and could bring their own additional gas volumes through the plants - which they woudl pick up for well below replacement cost.
Good buying at these levels I believe, with multiple re-rate catalysts on horizon - assuming at least one or more of new wells come good.