Forum Topics AEL AEL ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

Interesting opportunity thrown up today.

Amplitude Energy (AEL, formerly Cooper Energy COE) has had a miss in its first exploration well of the current 4-well campaign in the Otway basin (offshore Victoria).

While disappointing & quite unexpected, I think the market has over-reacted & SP over-corrected - cratering over 20% on the miss.

Core business is doing very well under relatively new manager Jane Noorman (ex STO)'s stewardship, with increasingly pleasing performance from their owned Orbost Gas Plant feeding Sole gas field production through it - formerly was bottlenecked & sulphur issues, but in past 12-18 months they have gotten on top of this issues, debottle-necked the plant & are even now lifting its capacity beyond former nameplate capacity of 68 TJ/day.

Other owned Gas Plant (Orbost) has huge latent capacity (total 150 TJ/day), which is only very partly being utilised. This is the big value kicker if they can backfill this plant with additional gas volumes from current growth initiative & exploration program dubbed the ECSP (East Coast Supply Project). Potential of substantial additional cashflow through the plant, for only the additional cap-ex to get any new fields drilled & tapped into existing nearby pipeline infrastructure.

I think market has over-reacted, and still good chance that 1 or more of the other 3 wells planned to be drilled with current JV partner OP Energy will come good.

Possible opportunity for those with slightly higher risk tolerance, as rest of business has been substantially de-risked - its just the growth premium that's been knocked off assuming entire campaign will be a flop. I don't buy this simplistic narrative & put this at a low probability. Any buying sub $2.75 good value in my opinion & will be rewarded with time.

Growth volumes from ECSP will kick in by early 2028 if successful, and can always toll 3rd party gas through Otway plant as a fall back.

Also my belief is eventually Beach will make a move on Ampllitude, as would complement their predominantly West Coast gas business nicely, and they already have significant expertise in Amplitude's offshore Victorian acreage/area, and could bring their own additional gas volumes through the plants - which they woudl pick up for well below replacement cost.

Good buying at these levels I believe, with multiple re-rate catalysts on horizon - assuming at least one or more of new wells come good.

tomsmithidg
Added 2 months ago

@Randy , interesting, I do like to buy when there has been a market overreaction. The P/E of over 5K stopped me for a second, but then I saw they've reduced debt by 85%, only just started production and today's prices ($2.50 as I type this), if the forecasts are on point, should give a P/E of 10 or lower by 2028. Do you know if the company has a policy on percentage of earnings to be paid as dividends?

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Randy
Added 2 months ago

Hi @tomsmithidg - the company best seen in context of couple of chapters - and has been steadily digging its way out of too much debt taken on during a period of several woeful years of chronic underperformance and disappointments under former leadership of David Maxwell. Its Orbost gas plant was plagued by fouling problems & falling short of production while owned by APA - and I guess Amplitude thought they could fix all their problems if they could just take control of the plant back & self- remedy the issues.

So they compounded their problems by borrownig big to purchase the Orbost Gas plant from APA, but the problems continued and were far more technically challenging to resolve than anticipated. The under-production of gas from their major Sole gas field through the plant meant the debt got away from them a bit, and any free cash flow was being channelled into fixing the production & fouling issues.

Under Jane's stewardship they have steadily got on top of these issues, and the plant is now humming & they are even experimenting with taking it over nameplate capacity of 68 TJ/day (recently averaging 71 TJ/day). All additional gas volumes above their contracted volumes go straight into the more lucrative Victorian spot market, as well as meeting gas peaker plant demand during cold winters & power spikes.

In answer to your question - all the focus has been (rightly in my opinion) on A) Debt Reduction, and B) Growth - as I believe the return on equity/capital will be far higher investing in additional gas production volumes (the East Coast Supply Project) to backfill & utilise the substantial latest capacity at their 2nd gas plant at Otway (using something like only 20 TJ/day out of 150 TJ/day capacity by memory).

They even tapped the market for a little additional capital recently at 24.5c ($2.695 post 1:11 consolidation) to fund a 4th prospective well over and above the planned 3, for the ECSP drilling campaign that got underway this year & ongoing.

If you take a look at the huge boost to FCF over past 12-15 months you can see the game changing financials that are underway, helping bring this company back from purgatory with formerly burned insto investors. The strong free cash flows have been used for a combination of debt reduction & pre-funding some of the long-lead time items for the ECSP project (i.e. sub-sea trees & other parts), as well as getting their big decommissioning liabiilty (removing subsea infrastructure from old BMG field) off the balance sheet - so now a lot cleaner balance sheet & outlook (that liability weighed heavily on the company). There is also still a chance they may eventually recover the 10% share that the big Indo company Pertamina ran away from & left in Amplitude's lap (still slowly going through the Courts).

Anyways, dividends will probably flow (plenty of FCF to fund them) once the investment in future growth by backfilling Orbost has been completed & additional gas sales revenue on the horizon. I would think Board might feel confident enough to start unlocking the purse strings in FY27 - once have de-risked the ECSP enough. If ECSP successful - then divies from FY28 on could be solid.

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tomsmithidg
Added 2 months ago

Thanks @Randy , I agree putting money into debt reduction and growth is good at this stage, but I like companies that have a clearly stated policy regarding payout ranges for dividends. Sounds like they don't have that at the moment, but I think it will go on my watchlist.

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