0145 GMT - While South32's 1H earnings and dividend should be in line with consensus, cash flow is likely to miss expectations, according to Macquarie. The bank estimates 1H operating cash flow of US$592 million, 7% below the Visible Alpha consensus. It says that is "largely from a combination of differences in working capital, tax, and EIA [earn-in agreement] distributions." South32's FY 2026 guidance is on track, says Macquarie. In 2H, drivers for the stock include a new CEO and chair, "positioning the company for further cost-out/performance simplification initiatives," Macquarie says. An extension at Mozal, which is due to close, could also present upside, it says. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$4.80 target on South32. The stock is up 0.9% at A$4.63. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0124 GMT - Evolution Mining's latest update "directly challenges the narrative that EVN is expensive and lacks growth," says Barrenjoey analyst Daniel Morgan. He says broadly in-line 1H earnings are "comprehensively (and positively) overshadowed by news on growth and Triple Flag stream amendments." The miner on Wednesday said its board has approved several growth projects and that it has amended a streaming agreement with Canadian precious metals company Triple Flag at the Northparkes mine in Australia. Barrenjoey upgraded Evolution to overweight on Feb. 2 because it expected Northparkes could be a big lever of additional value through expansion and a potential change in the Triple Flag stream, Morgan says. Barrenjoey reiterates a target price of A$16.50. Evolution is up 5.7% at A$15.84. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0116 GMT - There was a lot to like in Arena REIT's 1H results, Jefferies says. Its portfolio remains 100% occupied with leases representing less than 1% of income expiring before FY 2032. Analyst Andrew Dodds also highlights asset revaluation gains that drove a 5.2% increase in net tangible assets. "Gearing of 23.2% is likely the lowest across the REIT sector and provides plenty of headroom for additional acquisition and development activity," Jefferies says. Also, hedge cover of 93% provides good visibility over earnings. Jefferies had a buy call and A$3.90/share price target on Arena REIT ahead of the results. Arena REIT is up 0.9% at A$3.53. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0111 GMT - UBS cuts its price target on Sonic Healthcare by 26% to A$21.80/share when restarting coverage of the stock, citing a more cautious view of the outlook for the company's German and U.S. operations. That caution reflects the risk of funding cuts in Germany and increased competition in the U.S. In Germany, potential reforms to private patient funding appear well progressed, analyst David Low says. Those revisions are likely to come into effect during FY 2027. "The structure of the German system suggests diagnostic providers will be disadvantaged," UBS says. "We have allowed for some margin pressure from FY27, although limited detail makes the ultimate impact hard to quantify." UBS has a neutral call on Sonic, which is up 1.7% at A$22.19. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0053 GMT - CAR Group's reaffirmed annual guidance and strategic AI investment support increased bullishness on the stock at Morgans. Raising his recommendation to buy from accumulate, analyst Steven Sassine tells clients in a note that the stock is at an attractive entry point given what he thinks is a double-digit EPS growth profile. Sassine is pleased that the vehicle advertiser reiterated its guidance after what he says was a strong first-half result, with reinvestment across all regions likely to push annual revenue growth above Ebitda growth. Morgans trims its target price 0.8% to A$35.20. Shares are down 0.7% at A$27.00. ([email protected])

0039 GMT - Morgans frets about Beach Energy's liquefied natural gas swaps from its Waitsia Stage 2 project in Australia. Morgans says these arrangements present a material headwind to future earnings. Beach has delivered around 11 LNG cargoes so far. Of these, some 70% were fulfilled via swap arrangements and third-party purchases, rather than equity production. These volumes must be returned to counterparties roughly evenly over the next three years, analyst Adrian Prendergast says. "We estimate this creates A$150 million per annum of Waitsia production delivered with zero revenue recognition," Morgans says. "Cumulative net profit impact is A$200 million-A$250 million over three years, or 20% downside to current consensus if captured." Morgans downgrades Beach to trim, from hold. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0019 GMT - Aussie Broadband's A$125 million deal with AGL Energy raises questions from analysts at Jarden. With Aussie Broadband acquiring AGL's telco customers, analysts Liam Robertson and Charles Strong wonder what incremental synergies the internet-service provider expects to achieve on the path to its 12.5% Ebitda margin target. They also want detail on marketing co-contributions given that Aussie Broadband will deliver AGL-branded services under a long-term strategic partnership. Jarden has a last-published neutral rating and A$5.25 target price on Aussie Broadband stock, which is up 12% at A$5.07. ([email protected])

2359 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Macquarie thinks that the logistics-software provider's pilot program with Hapag Lloyd is more significant than it appears. WiseTech didn't announce the partnership to the ASX as a material development, but a note from one of Macquarie's analysts argues that partnering with the container-shipping provider strengthens the Australia-listed company's relationship with the most critical part of the logistics value chain. This is a stepping stone to the building of a multi-sided marketplace, the note says. The note adds that Maersk and Hapag Lloyd share vessels, which indicates a route for extending the pilot. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$94.00 target price on WiseTech shares, which are down 0.7% at A$50.23. ([email protected])

2357 GMT - Evolution Mining's bigger-than-anticipated interim dividend more than offsets a slight miss on 1H net profit. "The higher-than-expected dividend of A$0.20/share (18% beat versus Visible Alpha) underpins EVN's confidence in its forward outlook," Macquarie says in a note. The dividend is a 33% beat to Macquarie's own estimates. Net profit of A$766.6 million is a 5% miss to consensus, although is 4% above Macquarie's estimate. The bank reiterates an underperform rating and A$11.00/share target on the stock. Evolution is up 3.3% at A$15.48. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2351 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's bear at Citi reckons that good management of its December-half lending margins provides a platform from which it can benefit from rising interest rates. Analyst Thomas Strong tells clients in a note that, while the bank's lower first-half net interest margin was in line with his expectations, it appears to be flat excluding the impact of liquids and repos, and treasury and markets. He thinks that Commonwealth has offset underlying margin pressure through favorable portfolio mix such as strong growth in at-call deposits. Citi has a last-published sell rating and A$137.00 target price on the stock, which is up 6.5% at A$169.08. ([email protected])

2350 GMT - One interesting detail from Australian mall owner Region's 1H result is a revised outlook for capitalization rates. Region's property portfolio had a weighted average cap rate of 5.87% at the end of December, having compressed 10bps over six months. Macquarie notes there had been expectations of an additional 10bps of tightening in 2H. Region no longer thinks that will happen because the interest rate outlook has changed, Macquarie says. The RBA lifted interest rates by 25bps to 3.85% this month, and economists note the central bank typically raises rates more than once when acting to tame inflation. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2340 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's first-half result looks strong to its bear at Barrenjoey. Analyst Jon Mott, who has an underweight recommendation on the stock, tells clients in a note that lending growth supported net interest income that was 1.6% stronger than the average analyst forecast.With bad debts lower than analysts' expectations, Mott says the result demonstrates the strength of the franchise at Australia's largest bank. A half-year record A$105 billion in new mortgage funding will flow through to balance sheet growth in the second half, he adds. Barrenjoey has a last-published A$105.00 target price on the stock, which is up 6.7% at A$169.38. ([email protected])

2114 GMT - Greg Chubb will start as Region CEO on March 9, prompting Jefferies to consider what his plans might look like. "The incoming CEO may reset expectations on strategy, earnings and development pipeline timing," analyst Andrew Dodds says. "We expect funds management expansion to be a key pillar, alongside faster capital recycling to lift portfolio quality." Jefferies highlights two opportunities to grow funds from operations/unit above current guidance. Region could refinance existing bank debt and its U.S. private placements. It could also buy back more stock. Jefferies notes Region's cost of equity of 6.9% right now is 240bps above the forecast FY 2026 weighted average cost of debt of 4.5%. "Therefore, the spread implies any incremental dollar of capital deployed into the buyback is accretive to earnings," says Jefferies. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

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0422 GMT - UBS reckons it's time to buy scrap-metals merchant Sims, in big part because of the strong outlook for the company's electronics recycling arm. It reckons Sims Lifecycle Services, or SLS, is "a thesis changer" for the Australian stock. It forecasts SLS Ebit of A$112 million in FY 2026, well above consensus of A$91 million and FY 2025's A$33 million. It expects that to rise to A$133 million in FY 2027 and A$146 million in FY 2028. "Additionally, the metals business looks set for a strong start to 2026 as nonferrous prices rise sharply due to ongoing supply constraints, and ferrous scrap prices reach the highest levels in nearly a year." UBS upgrades Sims to buy from neutral. It raises its target by 46% to A$25.00/share. Sims is up 3.0% at A$21.23. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0401 GMT - PLS's new offtake agreement with Canmax Technologies is, on its own, marginally positive, according to Jefferies. It gives the miner "downside protection in the circumstance of consecutive lithium winters while delivering upside leverage," Jefferies says. "That being said, should it, as previously flagged, engender the restart of Ngungaju, increased supply will likely place downward pressure on prices," says Jefferies. The bank reiterates a hold rating and A$4.00 target on PLS's shares, which are up 1.0% at A$4.21. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0341 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' recovery of inventory from its former California supplier doesn't seem to fill Jefferies analysts with confidence. Analysts Michael Simotas and Naveed Fazal Bawa tell clients in a note that repurchasing previously sold inventory is never positive, especially at the original sale price, as the Australian producer is doing. They point out that the subsequent sale of this repurchased inventory to a new California distributor will be at zero margin and effectively replace the profitable sale of new inventory. This will dilute Treasury Wine's second-half margins, they add. Jefferies has a hold rating and A$5.20 target price on the stock, which is up 4.4% at A$5.395. ([email protected])

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