I've spent the past few days pouring over the past 4 years' worth of annual reports and here's what I've come up with:

Fleetwood’s 2023 through to 2025 financial statements demonstrate overall revenue growth, EBITDA and NPAT have increased year-on-year, reflecting improved operating outcomes despite margin sensitivity to construction input costs and project timing.

They've got 3 main income streams; in order of profitability: 1. community solutions (building regional housing), 2. building solutions (modular homes) and RV's (which suck) and are dragging the P&L down.

Asset composition is concentrated in property, plant and equipment and contract-related assets, consistent with a modular construction and accommodation operating model.

They operate with a very conservative capital structure. Total liabilities remain low relative to total assets with a debt to asset ratio of only 0.3, and with non-current liabilities largely comprising lease provisions (less than 12% of total liabilities). Current assets exceed current liabilities by double, and are primarily composed of cash, cash equivalents and receivables - meaning they are incredibly liquid. If anything, they could take on some debt and use it to boost operations.

Bottom line, the company is financially stable with strong liquidity and minimum debt. Revenue and profits are both trending upwards, with dividends following nicely behind.

Going above the numbers and recognising my un-empirical biases - I see continued growth in the future for FWD due to Australia's housing supply issue and more people throwing modular granny-flats out the back of their block. Add to this the Gov contracts for regional community housing and I don't think there's much risk of revenue slowing down, as long as they can keep up with demands.

I'd like to be a little more optimistic in my bull-case, but I'm also new around here and it's too early to be making a fool of myself, there's plenty of time for that ;)

Bear $1.82 / Base $2.34 / Bull $ 3.25

Disc: Held.

I would love to hear other's thoughts and if they can tell me what I'm missing.