Forum Topics The Economics of AI
Slomo
Added a month ago

Interesting take from the big brains at a16z.

The TLDR is The companies that win in this environment will be the ones delivering genuine value, not the ones that built the highest walls around their customer base.

Nice application of HH's 7 Powers to see where enduring moats might lie in the AI era.

Also Clay Christensen's Innovators Dilemma.

https://a16z.com/good-news-ai-will-eat-application-software/

They are understandably beating their own drum / pitching their expertise in this area.

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lankypom
Added 2 months ago

Meanwhile, Anthropic have just released a plugin for Claude Cowork to do equity research.

https://claude.com/plugins/equity-research


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Solvetheriddle
Added 2 months ago

I wasn't going to comment on this article, but now I can't resist. Firstly, i didint finish it, id had enough. i think it says more about the state of skittishness (or FUD as SM would say) in the market that this article got so much airtime than anything else. as ive written here before with Ai there is endless scenarios you can paint, and this is one of the darkest. IMO the stuff served up here ranges from possible to fantasy. the equivalent of going to a beach that just suffered a horrendous shark attack and yelling "shark" and watching the ensuing chaos..

People can do whatever they choose (and they will), i choose to listen carefully to the main players and see how the narrative changes. Take the Dwarkest podcast with Dario recently. Now he has his $30B in, he started backpeddling a little talked about the risks of timing demand and the lack of diffusion of AI into the economy. we shall see

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Solvetheriddle I read it in the same spirit as someone growing up in Europe post-WWII might have read Orwell's "1984' as they reflected on European fascism and Stalinist Russia.

(I guess a key difference is that, in the case of novel, much of it appears to actually be coming true as we watch the current Great Power antics. ... Must remember to buy my popcorn for SOTU later today!)

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Lewis
Added 2 months ago

Great book. Although some read it as a warning, some read it as an instruction manual. I first read it as Trump's prospects for President went from joke to reality in 2016, it was somewhat prophetic with the death of truth.

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Bushmanpat
Added 2 months ago

If I happen to post "SHARK" in a forum, it will be a subtle reference to this post.

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Chagsy
Added 2 months ago

I have to admit I’ve had half a bottle of wine so am presuming I’m a bit more susceptible to an argument than usual. Still, there was very little in this (very long) narrative that didn’t seem plausible. Perhaps the timeline is accelerated, but other than that it is dangerously realistic

Have to read it again without the aid of the Argentinian Malbec

Well worth the time

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

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Clio
Added 2 months ago

@Chagsy - Yikes! I don't think your reaction had anything to do with the Malbec.

Thanks for the tip. Definitely worth reading, even if just to make one focus on what companies will not be touched much, or at least not soon.

I've started to pick up comments from the US along the lines of: Is AI a mistake? (Animal Spirits podcast, Ep452). And elsewhere, too. Those who take the broader view.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Chagsy great article … cited in this morning’s WSJ market wrap.

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Strawman
Added 2 months ago

As soon as i read "bear porn" and "AI doomer fan-fiction" i knew i had to read this piece @Chagsy

Wild stuff.

I actually spent a bit of time on the weekend standing up an openCLAW instance on a VPS. Before you mistake me as someone who knows what I'm doing on the technical front, let me dissuade you of that notion! BUT, the fact i could actually do it in the first place (with the aid of AI, of course) shows you how valuable this tech is. And while it's still early days the "agent" AI experience, one with a persistence of memory and automation, is clearly a game changer.

Of course, as you may have read, openCLAW has a lot of rough edges and risks (it's open source with lots of community made skills) and it seems to hit a lot of walls for me. But i get the same sense i did in 2023 when i first used chatGPT, ie. not perfect, but incredible potential. Well worth a play if you are interested (just be careful!).


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twee
Added 2 months ago

If you found @Chagsy article interesting (I tapped out 5 paras in) I recommend a 2016 book called age of em https://ageofem.com/. It basically uses basic economics to lay out societal changes if we could create human like intelligence on silicon. Perhaps less investing relevant but more economicly sound and logically consistent than the citrin piece. Both are intellectual self indulgence but I'm a sucker for sci-fi.

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