21-Feb-2026

$24 ($3 - $46)

Updated valuation following assessment of FY25 results, and assessment of the potential outcome for the Px and Tx Business.

NOTE: Method is not comparable with previous valuation. This involved more detailed consideration of outcomes for Precision Medicine (Px) and Theranostic (Tx) businesses.

Method is Expected Value of discrete cases for 2031 (revenue numbers):

1. Px achieves 33% of US$5.2bn potential, no Tx success
2. Px achieves 50% of US$5.2bn potential, no Tx success
3. Px acheves 75%of US$5.3bn potential, no Tx success
4. Px 50% + US$0.5bnTx
5. Px75% + US$0.5bn Tx
6. Px75% + US$1bn Tx

Method: Price/Sales multiple in FY31 discounted at WACC 10% to FY26

Sales Multiples from radiopharma benchmarks from 3.0x (low success Px only) to 6.0x (high success Px + emerging commercial Theranosotic).

PV of R&D reduced from all values at US$1,200m except lowest case, to reflect option value of R&D (US$800m in failure case)

Detailed Calcs below:

Other Assumptions:

WACC 10%

AUD:USD 0.7

I hold a 4% RL position. I am a HOLD, given speculative exposure I wont put more capital at risk. Potentially will add more on positive Zircaix / Pixclara outcomes (depending on market resonse).

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21-Feb-2025

$30

Don't read much into this - all I am essentially saying is that, basically, I agree with the market. My actual valuation is >$30, because as I state below, I've only valued the Therapetics division at $600m.... because my starting point is today's market value.

As we get Phase III results on each Therapuetic, I'll make a better effort at valuing the succssful candidates. (Basically, valuing pre-commercial pharma is not my strength!)

Risk Reward? $25 - $40+ as a guesstimate,

To be clear, I will add to my position below around $25.

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(What follows is the valuation extract from today's straw)

There are many reasons why I have not attempted a detailed valuation of $TLX.

First, there are a LOT of moving parts. Far too many with too much uncertainty for me to even attempt a DCF.

Second, the medium-term margin structure is very unclear to me, with a lot of the global integrated supply chain having been assembled this year, and I have no clue as to its fixed cost, and variable cost nor the limits of its scalability. So, a financial model would be based on generic guesses ... i.e., a complete waste of time.

So, thinking about this simplistically, at close today $TLX is a $10bn business.

Assuming Illucix hits sales of $1.2bn in 2025, and apply a 5x multiple, I can get to $6bn. But of course with growth potential in the US, then Europe and RoW, it probably warrants a higher sales multiple. So, let’s be generous and say 7x to give $8.4bn.

The next three diagnostics are much smaller TAMs. So, let’s assume $300m in total revenue in 5 years, at a P/S of 5x, discounted back 5 years to give $1bn of value.

That gets me to $9.4bn for the commercial and near-commercial precision medicine business.

Which means I only have to find $0.6bn of value in the entire Therapeutics pipeline. Sure, it could all be worth $0. But then again, it could be worth another $10-20bn.

So that’s how I am thinking about the $TLX opportunity at the moment. (The revenue multiples I have used are relatively conservative, so I think there is a decent factor of safety in there)

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14-Aug-2025

See today's Straw - initiatiing a RL position.

$22 base case predicated on $2bn 2029 sales from a mix of the core 3 diagnostic products.

Downside to $12/share if ZIRCAIX and PLIXCARA fail, mitigated by M&A end-game.

Upsides to $42-$45/share contemplated through one or more of 1) building a larger radio-diagnostic portfolio or 2) gaining approvals in prostate or renal therapies.