0202 GMT - A land exchange between the U.S. government and a joint venture of Rio Tinto and BHP improves confidence in the outlook for the miners' Resolution Copper project, says Morgan Stanley's Rahul Anand. Today, MS ascribes no value to Resolution in its base case for either company, Anand says. Yet the project has the potential to produce roughly 500,000 metric tons of copper annually for decades, with gold and molybdenum byproducts, he says. He calls the land swap--which was needed to advance the project--an "incremental positive" for both companies. Rio Tinto is up 1.1% at A$156.35. BHP is 0.8% higher at A$49.56. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0034 GMT - Life360's bull at Morgan Stanley stays overweight on the location-app developer despite slashing valuation multiples on the broader de-rating seen among global software stocks. Analyst James Bales now values the stock at 5.5 times sales, down from 13.5 times sales previously. Another factor for Bales is concern over Life360's near-term margin trajectory. However, he stresses that dual-listed Life360 is building for the long term and points out that the company has made significant improvements in scale, value proposition and pricing power. "Any further improvement would be a catalyst for a potentially significant re-rating," he adds. MS cuts its target price 37% to A$30.00. Life360's Australia-listed shares are down 3.4% at A$18.73. ([email protected])
0019 GMT - Cochlear's bull at Jefferies remains confident in the underlying strength of the hearing-implant maker despite the earnings headwind of a stronger Australian dollar. Analyst David Stanton lowers his EPS forecast for the current fiscal year by 7%--and for fiscal 2027 by 9%--citing the recent strengthening of the local currency against the U.S. dollar and Euro, as well as a lower comparable earnings multiple. Stanton says Cochlear remains a quality business. Pointing to feedback from hearing-industry professionals, Stanton adds that Cochlear's new Nexa implant will drive market-share gains over at least the medium term. Jefferies lowers its target price by 6.25% to A$285.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is flat at A$173.10. ([email protected])
0003 GMT - Premier Investments' bull at Macquarie sees a stack of potential catalysts for the Australian retail conglomerate's share price. An analysis from one of the investment bank's analysts suggests Premier's Peter Alexander sleepwear brand is trading at a 62% discount to listed peers. With this in mind, improved disclosure of brand earnings, improved trading, and an uplift to U.K. consumer sentiment are all seen by the analysts as events that could move the dial on valuation. A sale of the underperforming Smiggle stationery chain or Premier's stake in small-appliance maker Breville are among other potential catalysts, the note adds. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$16.20 target price on the stock, which is flat at A$12.29. ([email protected])
2352 GMT - Perpetual's bull at Macquarie sees potential for further cost cutting following the sale of its wealth-management business to Bain Capital. One of the investment bank's analysts reckons that the divestment leaves the Australian company's remaining asset management and corporate trust units with a valuation of 10.9 times earnings. They see this as very attractive compared with peers, with any further cost cuts being highly accretive to earnings. Writing in a note to clients, the analyst adds that the wealth business has continued to perform through the sale process, meaning that Bain Capital will likely be liable for the deal's A$50 million earn out. Macquarie raises its target price 3.1% and reiterates its outperform rating. Shares are down 0.2% A$16.50. ([email protected])
2219 GMT - Citi says downside risks to its 2H earnings estimates for Australia's discretionary retailers are increasing. That reflects expectations of higher interest rates, along with a sharp rise in fuel prices since the Middle East conflict began. Analyst Adrian Lemme also highlights early signs of deteriorating consumer confidence. "However, retailers have continued to de-rate and we expect the stocks to rally should the conflict in Iran settle," Citi says. Australia's federal government could take measures such as reducing fuel excise duty to stabilize the situation. "Therefore, we leave our forecasts and recommendations unchanged but will review leading into 3Q trading updates," Citi says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
1811 ET - Plumbing fittings supplier Reliance Worldwide's new A$120 million share buyback may only boost its EPS by some 2% to 3%, despite its share price hovering close to three-year lows. That's because the higher cost of bank debt appears to be relatively expensive, Citi says. Reliance says it will use cash reserves and borrowing facilities to fund the buyback, which is equivalent to 5% of shares on issue. "On timing, we think at top end of participation rates it's possible the buyback could complete in FY26," analyst Samuel Seow says. Still, Citi expects some shares will be repurchased in FY27. "And there is potential to top up another 5% with buyback rules if the share price is still attractive," Citi says. Reliance ended Monday at A$3.12. Its stock is down roughly 32% in the past 12 months. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
1756 ET - DUG Technology's share price has fallen around 7% since the conflict in Iran began, despite being favorably exposed to higher crude-oil prices. That's creating an opportunity for savvy investors, says Shaw & Partners. DUG provides seismic study data processing services to clients in the oil and gas industry. "While the linkage is indirect, DUG is favorably exposed to a rising oil price environment (via exploration and production budgets and higher free cash flow generation of its clients)," analyst Jules Cooper says. DUG also has limited direct revenue exposure to the Middle East. That insulates it from current geopolitical disruption. Shaw has a buy call and A$3.00/share price target on DUG, which ended Monday at A$2.02. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2153 GMT - Investors in travel agents are questioning whether artificial intelligence is a friend or foe to the sector. Initially, AI collaboration was seen positively as it could lower costs and improve services, says Jefferies. More recently, investors are pondering whether AI agents could go direct to the traveller, bypassing travel agents. Analyst John Campbell, in a research note about WEB Travel, says AI developers are quiet about intentions to compete directly in travel. But no current plan doesn't mean never. "Whilst there's no doubt travel's complex even for AI, and acting commercially could undermine consumer trust in the truthfulness of AI, in the end, all it takes is for one to break ranks," Jefferies says. AI is one reason why investors in WEB Travel will stay cautious, despite its cheapest multiple in years. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2141 GMT - Passenger movements through Auckland International Airport were solid in February but Jefferies is alert to potential turbulence from here. Total passenger volumes rose by 5.0% last month compared to a year earlier. Throughput is now at 92.2% of pre-Covid levels. "We see downside earnings risks emerging as airlines raise fares and reduce capacity in response to higher fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict," analyst Amit Kanwatia says. Jefferies looks to Auckland International Airport's experience in 2011-2014 when fuel costs jumped. Then, volume growth was less affected as airlines continued to add capacity. "However, we expect a greater impact in the current cycle, given the New Zealand economic recovery has only recently begun," Jefferies says. It retains a hold call on Auckland International Airport. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0444 GMT - Lynas Rare Earths' binding letter of intent with the Pentagon will "further de-risk" the miner's earnings by extending a neodymium-praseodymium floor price to the U.S., Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand says in a note. Potential volumes remain unclear, but the agreement is strategically important, says Anand. It strengthens the relationship with the U.S. Defense Department and lays the groundwork for future supply agreements, particularly for heavy rare earths. Anand notes the binding letter follows a revised agreement between Lynas and Japan Australia Rare Earths last week that included the same floor price. "Together with JARE's long-dated commitment, this reinforces LYC's positioning as a core exâ?'China supplier to Western markets," he says. Lynas is up 1.8% at A$21.07/share, while Australia's materials stock index is down 2.1%. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires